BMI, a company within the Fitch Group, has forecast that India's economic growth will slow to 6.6 percent in the current fiscal year. This slowdown is attributed to the weakening of the economic momentum gained from last year's GST reforms, as well as high inflation reducing household disposable income.
Previously, the Indian economy demonstrated growth of 7.7 percent in the 2025-26 fiscal year. Although India remains the largest fast-growing economy in the Asia-Pacific region, BMI notes risks that could lead to lower figures, particularly due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East or a weaker monsoon season.
According to BMI's forecast, the growth slowdown in fiscal year 2027 will occur as the effect of the GST reforms begins to fade, while inflation remains elevated, averaging at 5.4 percent. BMI stated: 'We expect a moderate deceleration of growth from 7.7 percent in FY25/26 (April-March) to 6.6 percent in FY26/27, as the support from last year's GST reforms disappears and high inflation undermines household incomes.'
As part of the GST reforms implemented last September, tax rates on 375 goods were reduced, and the GST structure was simplified from four levels to effectively two—5 percent and 18 percent.
In its Asia-Pacific report, BMI indicated that the key risk to regional growth remains the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, which could raise oil prices and negatively affect real incomes and private consumption. The company forecasts stable growth in the APAC region at 4.1 percent in 2027, despite the slowing pace of its main driver.
BMI suggests that this forecast is based on the condition of a preliminary deal being reached between the US and Iran within the quarter. Any deviation from this scenario could lead to oil prices rising above the baseline of $86 per barrel on average in 2026 and would require a revision of growth forecasts. BMI added that it is monitoring signs of increased bilateral tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and any situation disrupting the strait's operation would likely lead to less favorable oil prices and regional growth outcomes.



