According to the chief economist of Efficient Group, Douwe Rudd, artificial intelligence is capable of increasing South Africa's annual economic growth rate by a full two percentage points above current figures. This estimate significantly exceeds forecasts presented by organizations such as the World Bank and PwC.
Rudd told TechCentral that AI could easily add 2% to GDP growth. He commented on the World Bank's 'World Development Report 2026,' which views AI as a lifeline for developing economies, believing they have more opportunities from AI than wealthier countries because fewer of their jobs are subject to automation. However, the bank itself notes that the dividends from productivity gains will be significantly lower for emerging markets than for developed economies.
When asked whether this figure refers to the annual growth rate or a one-time increase in production volume, Rudd confirmed that it pertains to an annual increase: regardless of actual growth, AI can add 2% to it every year. Under the current situation, he expects a lower bound of 1%, while 2% assumes solutions to skills gaps and policy constraints.
Rudd noted that GDP growth over the last fifteen years has been less than 1%. With projected population growth of about 1.4%, his calculations require acknowledging that 'we are becoming poorer per capita,' and that 'most of the GDP growth comes from population growth.' Although recent Stats SA estimates indicate slower population growth—1.2%—his overall thesis is correct: in 2025, the economy grew by 1.1%, barely covering population growth rates. In the first quarter of 2026, growth accelerated to 1.9% year-on-year. Rudd interprets the long-term deficit as a productivity failure, stating: 'Under normal circumstances, productivity growth should add approximately 1%, which means our productivity growth is low.'
Modeling conducted by PwC and published in their 'South Africa Economic Outlook' report last October yields completely different results. In a scenario they termed a 'tense transition'—'likely the most realistic future scenario'—characterized by fragmentation of the technological landscape due to regionalization and nationalism, South Africa will see 'a small annual real GDP increase and a cumulative benefit of 1.2 percentage points over a 10-year period' by 2035.
PwC emphasizes that this benefit is cumulative, not annual. Globally, they estimate a potential growth of up to 15 percentage points over a decade, which would 'effectively add one percentage point to the annual real GDP growth rate.' Based on this same basis, 1.2 points over 10 years amounts to roughly one-tenth of a point per year, making Rudd's estimate more than 15 times higher than PwC's most realistic local scenario and about two and a half times higher than the World Bank's most optimistic forecast for emerging markets.
The gap narrows when both forecasts are viewed as conditional. A more favorable PwC outcome, if South Africa 'can reduce inequality in access to AI tools,' is six percentage points by 2035, also cumulative, or about 0.6 points per year. Rudd's conditional forecast of 2% is more than three times this figure. In a 'turbulent times' scenario, where AI destroys more jobs than it creates, PwC predicts a negative impact on GDP.
The reason for the local discount lies in structural features: the country 'has less potential economic benefit from AI compared to the global average due to high levels of social inequality,' as well as due to a large marginalized and informal sector that is barely connected to this technology. In 2024, only 2% of vacancies in South Africa indicated AI-related skills, accounting for about 17,000 out of 845,000. PwC's chief economist in South Africa, Lululu Krügel, stated in the report: 'Like electricity in the 20th century, AI has the potential to create more jobs than it replaces if used for innovative economic activity. But—and this is very important—South Africa must use AI for the benefit of all society, otherwise it risks leaving behind many people who have less access to technology.'
The World Bank's figures fall between these two estimates. Expanding the methodology developed by MIT economist and Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu across 52 countries, the bank found that the expected productivity gain in developed economies 'more than doubles' the figures in emerging markets. In the most optimistic scenario, potential growth in developed economies increases from 1.2% to 3.6% in the 2020s, while for emerging markets it ranges from 4.1% to 4.9%, or eight-tenths of a point. Nevertheless, Chief Economist Indermit Gill calls AI a lifeline that 'they should grab before it slips away,' arguing that even the worst-case scenario will raise the potential growth of the developing economy 'above the dismal average of the first half of the 2020s,' during a period when development progress 'fell to a 75-year low.' The mechanism here is scarcity: 'Technology typically achieves the greatest gain where the resource it complements is most scarce.'
Only 4.5% of jobs in low- and middle-income countries are subject to generative AI automation, compared to 14.2% in high-income countries. Gill's assertion that developing countries 'have more opportunities' is based precisely on this ratio, not on growth forecasts. In the area where they agree, both groups are close: 16.2% of jobs in developing economies could see a significant productivity boost, versus 18.7% in high-income ones. The bank warns that the technology adoption gap between rich and poor countries will widen.
The conditions set by Rudd are not purely technological. He pointed out that 'skills are a serious constraint. As are infrastructure and policy,' mentioning the delay in satellite broadband licensing, which prevented Starlink from SpaceX from reaching South Africa, as well as regulatory agreements concerning mining, citing Minister of Resources and Energy Gweed Mantsashe and requirements for black ownership.
He also expects benefits to come from an unexpected source: 'the primary and secondary sectors of the economy will likely benefit the most,' although the World Bank classifies agriculture and manufacturing as least susceptible to AI influence, and the PwC index ranks workers and machine operators last. All three reports agree that implementation is the bottleneck. According to the bank, about two-thirds of the productivity gap between rich and developing economies is not a structural problem but rather a matter of technology adoption.
By April 2025, nearly 25% of internet users in high-income countries used ChatGPT, compared to 5.8% in upper-middle-income countries, which includes South Africa. The bank forecasts that the technology adoption gap will increase from 24 percentage points to 46 percentage points by 2035. Gaurav Nayyar, who led the report, stated: 'The window for the right solution is narrow.'
South Africa may be in a disadvantaged position to achieve these goals. As of mid-2026, the bank considers over 80 countries with published national AI strategies but excludes South Africa because Communications Minister Sulli Malatsi withdrew the draft national AI policy on April 26 after it was discovered that the 86-page document contained fabricated academic citations. A revised, lighter version is due to be presented to the cabinet in November. The same report notes that 'chronic power outages' in South Africa (which are apparently permitted) are one reason why investments in hyperscale AI are directed to Brazil and Malaysia, and the country's nominal GDP is projected at around $427 billion against approximately $775 billion in planned capital expenditures by five American AI hyperscalers by 2026.
Rudd's math holds, but only under condition. He stated: 'Without AI, certain policy changes can easily raise GDP to 3%. Add, say, 2% from AI to that, and 5% of GDP is quite achievable, if not more.'
MTN Group announced that in its report for the first six months ending in June, the company will record a material impairment of its 49% stake in Irancell. This statement was made in a trading update before the release of interim financial results scheduled for August 24. This write-down leads to a sharp decline in accounting profit, despite an improvement in the group's underlying operational performance.
The losses from impairment amounting to R2.13 per share, which are higher than R1.04 in the first half of 2025 and related to operations in Iran, are the main reason why MTN forecasts a drop in earnings per share by 20–30%, to a level between R3.77 and R4.31. Meanwhile, expected earnings per share on core metrics will be between R5.80 and R6.45, representing a decrease of 10%.
However, the group's preferred metric shows a different picture. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding impairments, hyperinflation effects, and currency fluctuations, are forecast to grow by 18–23%, reaching between R7.75 and R8.08. MTN explains the discrepancy with non-operating items totaling R1.78, including R1.26 in foreign exchange losses and 52 cents from hyperinflation accounting.
The company described this impairment as a result of 'geopolitical and economic conditions, as well as the war in Iran during the reporting period.' Nevertheless, the article's author argues that this underestimates the duration of the problem with this asset and the limited impact of the war on MTN's prospects regarding it.
Since May 2018, MTN has not received capital or dividends from Iran, after the Trump administration re-imposed sanctions following the withdrawal from the nuclear deal. The group's CEO, Ralph Mupita, previously referred to this stake as a 'frozen asset,' indicating that funds could neither flow in nor out. The stake generated profits that MTN could not receive; the company valued its share of Irancell's profit for 2025 at $136 million, none of which was repatriable.
Thus, the impairment reflects not the loss of something MTN used, but the accounting recognition that the asset ceased to be viable many years ago. The war merely eliminated the last grounds for maintaining the stake at its previous value.
The scale of the revaluation is easily overlooked against the per-share figures. Before the conflict, Iran accounted for approximately 4% of the group's net assets and about 7% of adjusted earnings per share—modest, but not insignificant figures that are now substantially impaired.
The first half of 2026 proved catastrophic for Iran and, consequently, for any hopes MTN had of benefiting from Irancell in the foreseeable future. The American and Israeli air campaign struck targets across the country. Control over the operator, which was already beyond MTN's control, shifted further into the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an organization designated as a terrorist group by the US, after most shareholders replaced the CEO in January due to delays in complying with a government order to cease communications.
MTN owns 49% of Irancell. The remaining 51% belongs to Iranian state structures and defense-related organizations, and MTN has repeatedly stated that it has no operational control and does not benefit from the investment. The company has been trying to exit this deal since 2020 but has found no mechanism, as sanctions impede both the movement of money and the sale of shares.
The asset write-down eliminates the valuation problem but does not remove the legal and reputational issues associated with it: MTN disclosed in August 2025 that it is the subject of a grand jury investigation by the US Department of Justice regarding its former business in Afghanistan and its stake in Irancell. Furthermore, the company is defending itself in US lawsuits under the Anti-Terrorism Act initiated by families of more than 500 American service members who claim that investments in Irancell benefited the Revolutionary Guard. MTN denies guilt and states that the plaintiffs filed the suit incorrectly. The Turkish operator Turkcell is pursuing a separate multi-billion dollar lawsuit, alleging that the initial Iranian license was obtained through bribery, which MTN also denies.
Improvements in the core business are real and detailed in recent reports from the group for South Africa and Africa overall. However, the main news of this period will be related to Iran—an asset MTN has wanted to divest for six years and which it is now forced to impair without the ability to sell it.
A significant observation requiring more attention than the profit figures themselves is contained in the MTN group's half-year report for the period ending in June. The company noted that the South African prepaid market remains challenging in the second quarter of 2026, particularly regarding voice service revenue trends.
This marks the fourth consecutive reporting period where MTN has reported a decline in domestic voice service revenue, with the rate of decline increasing in each subsequent period. In the third quarter of 2025, MTN South Africa's voice service revenue fell by 2.8%; in the fourth quarter, it dropped by 8%, representing a 4.2% decrease for the full year. In the first quarter of 2026, the drop reached 9.6%, and the second quarter proved difficult for the company once again.
Prepaid accounts account for about 52% of MTN South Africa's revenue. The base of prepaid subscribers decreased by 0.7% to 29.7 million during 2025, and revenue from consumer prepaid services declined by 2.3%, with the reduction reaching 3.9% in the fourth quarter. Total annual revenue grew by 2% to 44.03 billion rand; however, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda, an operating profit indicator) decreased by 10.2% to 17.67 billion rand.
The most obvious signal is the margin. MTN South Africa reported a 12.5% decrease in Ebitda in the first quarter, with a margin of 32.6%, which is 4.1 percentage points lower compared to the previous year. The company's medium-term forecast for this division is a margin in the range of 35–37%, but currently, the company is operating significantly below the lower end of its target range.
The changes were not due to Vodacom or Telkom initiating a price war. The cause was the entry of a bank into the market that does not require voice service revenue. Capitec Connect attracted 1.5 million active customers in the three months leading up to the end of February and completely abolished call charges between its own SIM cards in April. In the year leading up to February, the service processed 768 million voice minutes, which is 150% higher.
Eccentrica has unveiled its new V12 Roadster, which is an open-top version reimagining the Lamborghini Diablo. This vehicle will be shown to the public for the first time on August 14th at The Quail event during Monterey Car Week in California. Production of this model will be limited to 19 units, with each car individually customized for the buyer.
The company, based in San Marino, began its operations in restoration and modification (restomods) in 2024 with the release of the Eccentrica V12 coupe. The new roadster utilizes the same foundation as the hardtop version: a 5.7 V12 naturally aspirated engine inherited from the first-generation Diablo, along with a six-speed manual transmission featuring a visible 'H' pattern shifter and no electronic assistance.
Internal modifications by Eccentrica included recalibrating the electronic control unit, implementing a new thermal regulation system, and optimizing airflow. As a result, the stated power reaches 558 horsepower at 7000 rpm and a torque of 61.2 kg·m at 6500 rpm, with a maximum speed of 7500 rpm and an estimated top speed of 335 km/h. According to the manufacturer, the accelerator response has become sharper, and the power delivery more instantaneous.
Removing the roof presented a complex challenge. The company conducted specialized aerodynamic studies to control airflow around the open cabin and reinforced the structure with carbon fiber to compensate for the loss of the roof and maintain torsional rigidity. The body combines steel and composite materials, preserving the Diablo's proportions while achieving a wider track. The specification includes revised suspension geometry, semi-active dampers, hydraulic steering, Brembo brakes, and Pirelli Trofeo RS tires. The stated weight is 1540 kg, with 41% of the mass on the front axle and 59% on the rear.
The project development was overseen by Maurizio Reggiani, a former technical director at Lamborghini who was centrally involved in projects such as the Murciélago, Gallardo, Aventador, and Huracán. The design was executed by the Milanese studio Borromeo De Silva. Eccentrica reports that over 3500 components are custom-developed for each unit.
The interior is finished with Connolly leather and Alcantara, featuring anodized elements and visible carbon fiber, while retaining analog instrumentation. Emanuele Colombini, founder and president of the company, stated: 'The Eccentrica V12 is our statement of openness. The Roadster is the next chapter: more open, more direct, more demanding. Without a roof. Without filters. Nothing between you and the machine.'
The price of the roadster was not disclosed. The coupe was introduced to the market in 2024 at a price of 1.2 million euros (which was approximately 7.1 million Brazilian reais at Tuesday's exchange rate), with the cost of the donor Diablo being paid separately by the client.
