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According to Inmet, storms will return with force in the Southern Region of Brazil this Wednesday, the 12th, and are expected to persist on Thursday, the 13th. The states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná will present the most unstable weather conditions, while other areas of the country will be marked by heat and low air humidity.

This climatic change is directly related to the influence of a trough linked to a low-pressure system located in northern Paraguay, a phenomenon that drives the advance of rain and thunderstorms over the Southern Region.

Weather Conditions in the Southern Region

On Wednesday, the weather will be heavy in the three southern states. During the morning, rain and thunderstorms will affect Rio Grande do Sul and central-south Santa Catarina, while Paraná will also record isolated showers. The situation tends to worsen in the afternoon, when Rio Grande do Sul should have rain and thunderstorms throughout its extent, and Santa Catarina and Paraná will receive new showers.

On Thursday, the instability remains. Rain and thunderstorms are expected in central-north Rio Grande do Sul, much of Santa Catarina, and the western and southwestern areas of Paraná. Curitiba may also experience isolated showers.

Situation in Other Regions

The scenario is different in the Center-West, where the weather will remain stable in most of the area, with the exception of isolated rains in southern Mato Grosso do Sul and northwestern Mato Grosso. Cuiabá may reach 36°C this Wednesday, and maximum temperatures are expected to rise on Thursday. Furthermore, Inmet has issued an orange alert for low humidity in parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul.

In the North, precipitation will be concentrated in the west and northwest of the Amazon. The rest of the region will remain dry and hot, with a forecast high of 37°C in Porto Velho.

In the Southeast, the eastern band concentrates the largest amount of clouds, presenting the possibility of isolated rain on the coast and in parts of São Paulo and Espírito Santo. The interior of this region will be drier, and Rio de Janeiro may register 32°C on Thursday.

Northeast and General Alerts

In the Northeast, rain will be observed predominantly on the coast of the states of Bahia, Sergipe, and Alagoas. The interior remains dry and hot, with a forecast high of 35°C in Teresina. Low humidity alerts have also been issued for several locations, including parts of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and several northeastern states.

The Inmet forecast indicates two distinct climatic patterns for the coming days: in the South, the continuation of rain and thunderstorms; and in most of the Center-West, North, Northeast, and Southeast, the predominance of heat and persistent dry air. Maximum temperatures are expected to rise in several regions on Thursday, while instability remains active over the Southern Region.

Snowfall has been recorded in Shiva Kshetra in the Drakensberg region.

The monsoon will change its direction again. A new low-pressure area is expected to form in the northwestern part of the Bay of Bengal around August 13. Combined with the already active weather system in the central and eastern parts of the country, this could lead to heavy rainfall in Odisha, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh on August 13 and 14. On August 15, rains may reach Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Eastern Madhya Pradesh.

After this, starting from August 16, the monsoon rain zone may shift north, approaching the foothills of Bihar, Nepal, and Eastern Uttar Pradesh. Increased precipitation is forecast in these regions and near the Himalayas. Meanwhile, rainfall in many parts of West, Central, and South India may decrease. This situation could persist until around August 20.

In Odisha, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, the monsoon will be more active from August 13 to 14, with heavy rains possible in many places. On August 15, the influence of rains may also intensify in Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Eastern Madhya Pradesh.

According to meteorologists, the new low-pressure area will not spread far inland like the previous system but will rather shift northward. This will make the monsoon zone very important going forward.

From August 16, heavy rains are possible in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sikkim, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Northeast India. This rainy period is likely to last until August 20. The most intense precipitation may fall in the Himalayan foothills. There is a risk of very heavy rains in the mountainous states of North India, as well as in the areas at the foot of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Residents of these areas are advised to monitor meteorological information and local warnings.

If the monsoon zone remains in the north after August 16, rainfall in other parts of the country may decrease. The monsoon activity in West, Central, and South India is predicted to be quite weak. This state is called a 'pause' in the monsoon. Currently, there are no signs of a large new system forming in the Bay of Bengal before August 21. However, the rain forecast may change depending on the shift in weather system directions, so the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon zone will be closely monitored in the coming days.