Western Europe faced its hottest June to July period on record, with July featuring the third and fourth heatwave since May, marking a notable sequence of extreme heat this summer.
The data comes from the latest report by Copernicus, the Earth Observation system of the European Union's space program. Although the July heatwaves were not as intense as those in June, the overall trend of extreme heat since May remains exceptional for the region.
Global Air Temperature at the Surface
In July 2026, the month was the second hottest globally, tied with July 2024, only behind the record set in July 2023. The average temperature between June and July in Western Europe reached the highest level ever seen, hitting 21.62 °C, which represents an increase of 2.79 °C compared to the average and surpassing the previous record of 2022, highlighting the persistence of heat since the beginning of summer.
The average land temperature in Europe in July 2026 was the eleventh highest for the month, at 20.49 °C. This relatively modest ranking is due to a strong temperature contrast between the west and the east; while Western Europe recorded temperatures well above average (especially France, Spain, England, and Ireland), much of Eastern Europe and Scandinavia remained below average.
Sea Surface Temperature
The month also recorded the highest sea surface temperature ever documented for July in the extra-polar oceans. This was partially influenced by the development of the El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Service, which is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The average sea surface temperature in the extra-polar ocean (60°S–60°N) in July 2026 was the highest of the month, reaching 20.96 °C, exceeding the previous record of 20.89 °C set in 2023. These temperatures remained high in the tropical Pacific, an area where current El Niño conditions are expected to intensify in the coming months.
Near Europe, sea temperatures reached record peaks in July along the coasts of the Atlantic and western Mediterranean, a phenomenon linked to generalized strong or severe marine heatwave conditions.
Drought
A large part of Western Europe suffered from a widespread drought, observed in May and June, which continued and worsened. Exceptionally low precipitation and/or soil moisture levels were reported in France, Spain, parts of Germany, and the United Kingdom.
In July 2026, surface soil moisture levels in Western Europe were considerably lower than in July 2022, the last summer with severe drought across Western Europe. In areas affected by the dry spell, river flow was much lower or extremely low, notably the Seine, the Rhine, and the Danube, impacting water supply, irrigation, and power generation in several countries.
Drought Conditions
The drought conditions coincided with widespread heatwaves across most of Western Europe, creating a scenario conducive to exceptional forest fire activity in the region, both in terms of burned area and emissions.
Other regions that experienced drier-than-average conditions included parts of southern Scandinavia and a vast area east of the Caspian Sea. Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, emphasizes that 'persistent high-pressure systems retained heat over Western Europe, and extreme temperatures also amplified the widespread drought. As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to accumulate more easily. This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought reinforcing each other increasingly.'
Fires
In July 2026, the combination of prolonged heat and drought in Western Europe resulted in the spread and intensification of extreme forest fires, such as those in France and Spain.
Intense Fires in Northern Portugal
The regions of Braga, Aveiro, and Viseu, in Portugal, registered an increase in fire occurrences during July. Regional air quality data from CAMS clearly detected plumes of coarse particles and PM2.5 at the beginning of the month.
Laurence Rouil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, highlighted that 'last month saw exceptional forest fire activity across Western Europe, in terms of burned area and emissions.'
A recent study published in Nature Climate Change used data from the Copernicus Climate Service to offer a detailed global analysis of the evolution of thermal stress since 1950. Thermal stress is pointed to as the main cause of climate-related mortality worldwide, aggravating pre-existing conditions such as cardiovascular, respiratory, and mental health problems.
The study, titled 'Intensification of global thermal stress and its growing impact on the human population', authored by Rebecca Emerton, Julien Nicolas, Anna Lombardi, and Claudia Di Napoli from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, investigates this gap using UTCI, a widely accepted biometeorological index of thermal stress. This index considers temperature, humidity, wind, and radiation, in addition to simulating the human body's response to the environment, classifying thermal conditions as 'sensible' temperature to indicate everything from cold stress to extreme heat.
The research also revealed the global proliferation of thermal stress days and tropical nights. It is relevant to note that the area under thermal stress has expanded, implying that locations previously unaffected by extreme heat are now under influence. Subtropical regions, including the southern North America, southern Europe, northern and southern Africa, South America, and Australia, now experience up to 50 more days per year with at least strong thermal stress compared to the 1970s decade. Thermal stress seasons are lengthening and nights are getting warmer.
In addition to the increase in UTCI, the study demonstrates that the duration of the thermal stress season is also changing. On average, in the Northern extratropical regions, the moderate thermal stress season lasts 15 days longer than in the 1970s. For strong thermal stress, the season is, on average, 12 days longer, while very strong and extreme thermal stress seasons have extended by nine and six days, respectively.
Belgium recorded the highest mortality rate in Europe during the late June heatwave, with a rate of 48%. The country was hit more severely than, for example, France (+23%) and the Netherlands (+13%). According to the EuroMOMO database, a European network for standardizing mortality data in over 20 European countries, Belgium presented the highest excess mortality rate in Europe during the unusual late June heatwave.
