2026 El Niño could be the most intense ever recorded, according to scientists

The average sea surface temperature in July 2026 reached the highest level ever recorded, according to data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The global average temperature was 20.96°C, surpassing the previous record of 20.89°C set in 2023.

This result was published on Tuesday, August 10, and is primarily linked to the abnormal warming of vast areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where El Niño-related conditions are already present. The European service forecasts an intensification of this phenomenon in the coming months.

In Europe, the situation was also characterized by extreme ocean temperatures, marine heatwaves, and impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. In the western part of the continent, the period between June and July was the hottest on record, accompanied by drought, low soil moisture, and a significant reduction in river flow.

The sea temperature record is set within a broader context of exceptional heat. Although July was the second hottest month globally in terms of air temperature, the figure of 16.90°C was almost on par with July 2025 and below the 2023 record. Nevertheless, the monthly average was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial level estimated for the 1850–1900 period. This fact underscores the global scale of the event, which was not limited only to sea surface temperature.

The tropical Pacific Ocean played a crucial role in this result. The El Niño-related conditions present there, according to Copernicus forecasts, are expected to intensify in the following months.

In the European zone, the warming of the Atlantic and Western Mediterranean was associated with intense marine heatwaves. This phenomenon affected coastal areas and impacted the populations and ecosystems of these regions. In Western Europe, the average temperature between June and July reached 21.62°C, exceeding the previous mark of 2022 by 2.79°C. During this period, successive heatwaves coincided with a drought that began in May.

France, Spain, parts of Germany, and the United Kingdom recorded exceptionally low levels of precipitation and soil moisture. The combination of heat and water scarcity also affected river systems. According to the Copernicus bulletin, rivers in the affected areas had significantly reduced flow or extremely low levels. This situation led to consequences for water supply, agricultural irrigation, and energy generation in various countries, with particular impacts on the Seine, Rhine, and Danube rivers.

Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts linked the European situation to the persistence of high-pressure systems, which contributed to heat concentration. In her assessment, soil desiccation reduces the natural ability of these surfaces to moderate temperature. The expert also pointed to the reinforcing link between extreme heat and drought in the context of climate change: rising temperatures promote drier conditions, while loss of soil moisture reduces natural cooling.

Another aspect noted by the European service was the occurrence of exceptional forest fires in Western Europe in July. According to Lawrence Ruil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, the area affected by fires and the volume of emissions reached unusual levels. Ruil linked climate change conducive conditions to the emergence of larger and more intense fires in Southern Europe. This scenario may also extend the season of fire-prone conditions towards northern regions of the continent.

Emitted smoke also represents a factor of regional dispersion. Large fires release large volumes of particles and gases into the upper layers of the atmosphere, allowing these pollutants to be transported over long distances and reach countries with relatively few ignition points. Thus, the July data presents a picture where various climatic extremes are interconnected: the ocean temperature record occurred concurrently with extreme heat across the European continent, drought, reduced water availability, and intense wildfire activity.

The question of whether tourism can approach snow leopards in Ladakh without leading to their extinction is pressing, as the region plans to introduce organized safaris along popular routes for bird and snow leopard watching.

However, conservationists express concerns that turning fragile high-altitude wilderness into a tourist route could disrupt wildlife, lead to the commercialization of off-road trips, and pave the way for the construction of roads, cafes, and other tourist infrastructure.

Dr. M.K. Ranjitsin, a member of the honorary staff of the Wildlife Institute of India, who has dedicated nearly 50 years to developing conservation strategies and participated in shaping the Wildlife Protection Act of 1972 and Project Tiger, stated that spotting a snow leopard from a jeep is impossible without illegal actions, such as using lures or sheep to attract the animal.

He emphasized that 'Kaziranga is not Ladakh, and Ranthambore is not Ladakh. The ecology is completely different.' In the open valleys of Ladakh, vehicles are visible for many kilometers, and vegetation is concentrated along the valley floor, attracting animals for food and water.

Ladakh is home to 477 snow leopards out of an estimated 718 in the country, representing the largest population. Furthermore, it hosts over 38 species of mammals, 340 species of birds, and 1800 species of vascular plants.

Nevertheless, spotting a snow leopard is extremely difficult: its thick, spotted fur blends with the rocky slopes, and the steep, remote terrain gives it a huge natural advantage.

A representative of the Ladakh government reported that the Lieutenant Governor, Vinay Kumar Saxena, instructed the Forest Department to introduce organized safaris based on models of national parks such as Kaziranga and Ranthambore. These tours will be conducted in specially designed open vehicles, driven by trained local drivers and guides. According to the government, this measure aims to prevent illegal off-roading and wildlife disturbance.

The plan was approved at the first meeting of the governing body of the Snow Leopard and High Altitude Nature Conservation Society chaired by Saxena. Forestry staff have been tasked with studying routes through Hemis National Park, the Changtang and Karakoram reserves, as well as the Nubra, Zanskar, Sham, Kargil, and Dras areas.

Ranjitsin fears a different future, warning that 'wild safaris may be good in principle, but in practice, it could become a disaster.' He cautions that the lobbying interests of tourism and hospitality businesses could ultimately outweigh state control, leading to increased demand for roads, dining spots, and other infrastructure, potentially turning the entire landscape into a festival.

One wildlife official noted that safaris are most effective where animals gather in large groups or herds, which differs from the mountainous and trans-mountainous landscape of the Himalayas. Roads already exist in protected areas in Ladakh, and tourist vehicles have access to all zones except for some restricted border areas.

This official also stated that 'they are actually planning to legalize and commercialize off-road trips,' warning that entry into fragile meadows might be permitted for a fee.

Kaziranga and Ranthambore have become part of the imagination of Indian safaris. The proposed safari in Ladakh will explore a completely different world, where snow leopards are scattered across a harsh landscape, and the first rule for finding them is knowing where not to look.

According to data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), July recorded the highest temperatures in the United States. This analysis considered only territories outside Alaska and Hawaii, reaching the highest average temperature since the beginning of measurements in 1895.

In parallel, in the European Union (EU), half of the soil is dry. According to information from the Copernicus program, which uses satellite observations and combines three indicators—precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation condition—July was the second driest month ever recorded.

Data released by the European Drought Observatory indicates that the drought significantly affected mainland France, where 95% of the soil was impacted, and Switzerland, with 99% of the area affected. Other notable countries include Hungary (94%), Slovenia (93%), and Austria (91%).