The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to keep the repo rate at 7.0% was unexpected, despite inflation rising from 4.5% in May 2026 to 5.0% in June. The MPC explained this by noting that economic growth remains under pressure, mentioning risks of slowing growth in its statement.
MPC Forecasts and Arguments
The Committee indicated that the forecast derived from the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) suggests that the key interest rate will remain relatively stable for the remainder of the year. According to the model, rate cuts are expected later when inflation drops to 3%, and rates will adjust to a neutral level. Furthermore, the MPC asserted that the stronger rand since the beginning of the year helped reduce fuel prices in July, and food inflation remained moderate, increasing by only 1.4%, while further significant declines in fuel prices were anticipated.
Rising Inflationary Pressure
The MPC's decision to maintain the repo rate unchanged appears contradictory, as the statement acknowledged that services inflation remains a complex issue, with most components exceeding the 3% mark, including housing, transport, and insurance. The MPC also noted that various core inflation indicators point to intensifying inflationary pressures. Moreover, the latest survey by the Bureau of Economic Research showed an increase in inflation expectations, with short-term expectations being higher than long-term ones. All groups surveyed within this bureau predicted higher inflation, with the largest increase recorded among trade unions.
Financial Market Reaction
Despite the MPC's choice to keep interest rates unchanged, financial markets demonstrated disagreement. Following the MPC announcement, the rand sharply depreciated against the US dollar, euro, and British pound, reaching R16.80 to the dollar on Thursday and trading at a weak R16.96 to the dollar on Friday, closing the week at R16.83 to the dollar. The oil price shock situation also continued last week: disruptions on three fronts in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Black Sea pushed Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel on Thursday. Although prices slightly decreased to approximately $98 per barrel, leading to a modest recovery in stock markets and lower bond yields on Friday, global markets remained under pressure.
South African Stock Market Dynamics
On the JSE, the All Share Index (ALSI) lost 1.8% on Friday following the MPC's decision and the sharp rise in oil prices. Although the price of gold recovered from $4,007 last Monday to $4,073 on Friday, and platinum and palladium also strengthened, most JSE indices ended the week lower. Ultimately, the ALSI was nearly flat, showing a gain of only 0.15%, while remaining 14.3% below the level recorded before the US attack on Iran. A similar trend is observed across most major global indices.
Fuel Price Forecast for August
Although the initial recovery of petrol prices to 3.57 per liter and diesel to 5.10 per liter looked promising at the beginning of July, the sharp rise in oil prices from $76 to $96 per barrel over the last four weeks, combined with the rand weakening by more than 40 cents last week, ruled out any prospects of fuel price decreases in August. By last Thursday, the recovery in diesel prices had already shrunk to 110 cents per liter. Meanwhile, 95 ULP petrol still showed a recovery of 41 cents per liter, but prices for both fuels are expected to rise next month, with the increase in diesel likely being sharper.
Outlook for the Coming Week
This week, domestic and global financial markets will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is scheduled for Wednesday. The general consensus suggests that this benchmark rate will remain unchanged at 3.75%. If the FOMC decides to raise interest rates, the rand, bonds, and South African stocks are likely to come under significant pressure. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets predicting it will also leave rates unchanged at 3.75%. On Thursday, the US will release personal income and expenditure data, and the Eurozone plans to publish its June unemployment rate on the same day. Locally, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will publish government budget balance and June Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday. The South African Reserve Bank will publish South Africa's trade balance on Friday.