Crisis of Five Storms in Western Pacific; Monitoring Potential Impact on Monsoon

The EU climate monitoring service reported on Monday that Western Europe experienced its hottest June-July ever recorded. This summer is marked by a historic wave of heat, drought, and wildfires driven by climate change.

Europe is the continent warming fastest in the world, and the first two months of summer were characterized by successive heatwaves, extremely high temperatures, and extremely dry conditions. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service data, the average temperature in Western Europe for June-July was 21.62°C, surpassing the 2022 record for the same period.

Copernicus noted that this reflects an 'exceptional persistence of heat' this season. Furthermore, soil moisture levels were 'significantly lower' than in July 2022, when Western Europe faced its last severe drought. Samantha Burgess from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which manages Copernicus, emphasized that this clearly demonstrates how climate change amplifies temperature extremes, as heat and drought increasingly reinforce each other.

Very dry conditions were observed in July across Western and Central European countries, including France, Spain, Austria, and Hungary, as well as in the UK, Ireland, and parts of Iceland. River runoff significantly decreased, with the Seine, Rhine, and Danube being particularly affected. This impacted transport, irrigation, and energy production in many European states.

These hot and dry conditions also created ideal conditions for fires, and scientists argue that the frequency of extreme weather events conducive to ignition is increasing in Europe amid climate change. This summer, France and Spain battled the most devastating fires in memory, while other European countries, as well as northwestern USA and Canada, also faced serious blazes.

Ocean Temperature Rise

Copernicus also reported that global oceans reached record temperatures for the second consecutive month in July. This was attributed to marine heatwaves around Europe and the developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. The average global sea surface temperature in July was 20.96°C, exceeding the previous 2023 record.

Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo stated that the waters of the Mediterranean and Atlantic Seas were unusually warm, but the developing El Niño is likely the 'driver' of these record temperatures. A climatologist told reporters on August 5th: 'We are currently facing a very large El Niño—possibly unprecedented in amplitude. It is clear that the contribution coming from the tropical Pacific is becoming quite significant.'

El Niño is a warm phase of the natural climate cycle that temporarily raises ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and can influence extreme weather events such as droughts and floods worldwide. Additionally, it adds heat to a planet already warmed by fossil fuel burning. El Niño events usually peak towards the end of the year before the heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere, leading to higher global temperatures. The last El Niño event helped make 2023 and 2024 the second and first warmest years on record, respectively.

Buontempo noted that scientists expect a new record for the global average temperature later this year or in early 2027.

Climate Regulator

Globally, last month was the second warmest July on record, with the average surface air temperature being 1.47°C above the pre-industrial level of 1850–1900, according to Copernicus. The last 11 years have seen the hottest periods in history, and Buontempo stated: 'We have not seen such warm climate in my lifetime, and perhaps in our entire civilization.'

He added that the 'main driver of this warming is, as we know, greenhouse gases.' Oceans absorb most of the excess heat caused by human carbon emissions and thus play a key role in regulating the climate. Warmer seas can have detrimental effects on the planet, contributing to intensified storms and precipitation, as well as coral bleaching.

Copernicus collects data using billions of satellite and meteorological measurements both on land and at sea, and its database covers the period since 1940.

Could South Africa Face Record Heat?

South Africa may expect an unusually hot spring and summer as strengthening El Niño influences weather conditions in South Africa. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become above average, altering atmospheric circulation and affecting weather conditions far beyond the Pacific Ocean.

Seasonal forecasts indicate an increased probability of maximum temperatures exceeding the norm across much of South Africa as El Niño develops, with this signal becoming particularly widespread by early summer. For South Africa, this could mean more frequent heatwaves and prolonged periods of unusually hot weather, while drier than usual conditions in some areas could further intensify heat stress and pressure on water resources and agriculture.

Nevertheless, it is too early to say whether South Africa will experience record temperatures. El Niño increases the likelihood of hotter conditions but does not dictate specific weather events. Temperatures will also depend on other atmospheric and oceanic factors, and long-term global warming raises the baseline against which temperature records are measured.

The report issued by the European Copernicus system points to a series of extreme events, characterizing the period from June to July as the hottest ever recorded in Western Europe. This period was marked by a combination of abnormal temperatures, exceptional drought across most of the region, high-intensity wildfires, and the occurrence of a record temperature on the ocean surface during July.

Additionally, a notable reduction in the water levels of several rivers, including the Seine, the Rhine, and the Danube, was observed. This decrease had direct consequences for water supply, irrigation practices, and energy generation in several countries.

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which operates under the auspices of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, July registered the highest sea surface temperature in all time in the extra-polar oceans. The records observed across the Atlantic and western Mediterranean throughout Europe were linked to severe and widespread marine heatwaves, with the sea surface temperature reaching 20.96°C in July, surpassing the previous record of 20.89°C set in July 2023.

Copernicus scientists frame this new record within a broader climate warming trend, indicating that this phenomenon is not merely attributable to the El Niño event. These marine heatwaves brought significant impacts both to coastal ecosystems and to local communities. In marine environments, changes are observed in the migratory routes of various species, while in coastal populations, problems related to fishing, changes in aquaculture, and an increased risk to certain tourist activities are emerging.

The high ocean surface temperatures in July coincided with prolonged conditions of heat and dryness. The statement also highlights the strengthening link between extreme heat and drought. This cycle occurs because, when soils dry out, they lose the ability to cool the environment through water evaporation. The process unfolds as follows: higher heat causes soil drying; drier soils further raise the temperature; higher temperatures promote fires; and these fires, in turn, release more heat and cause vegetation degradation.

Laurence Rouil, director of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service, clarifies that climate change is intensifying heat and dryness conditions, which favors the occurrence of large, high-intensity wildfires in Southern Europe. Furthermore, she adds that larger fires generate more smoke, which rises higher into the atmosphere, allowing it to travel greater distances and affect air quality not only locally but also thousands of kilometers away.