Heavy rains hit parts of the UAE amid ongoing summer heat

The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) reported on Monday that rain is expected in parts of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) until Friday, August 7. This is due to atmospheric conditions conducive to the formation of convective clouds.

Weather systems in the region are drawing moisture from the Gulf of Oman. Combined with rising temperatures and the influence of the eastern mountains, this should lead to the development of localized convective clouds over parts of the country, especially in the afternoon. NCM noted that these clouds may bring precipitation of varying intensity.

On Monday, rain clouds may appear over some eastern and southern areas in the afternoon. The wind will be light or moderate but may occasionally increase up to 40 km/h in inland areas, causing dust to rise.

The Storm Centre meteorological channel on X stated that morning readings indicate potentially favorable conditions for thunderstorm activity later on Monday. It highlighted areas west of Al Madam, Nazwa, and Mleiha, as well as Markab, Al Fakah, and Margam in southeastern Dubai, and locations north of Al Ain as zones where cloud development is possible.

The channel also reported that moist easterly winds may shift the convergence zone further west during the day. A moist sea breeze can also create favorable conditions for cloud formation in the area stretching from the southern parts of the central region to southeastern Dubai and north of Al Ain.

According to the NCM's five-day bulletin, the probability of precipitation will continue on Tuesday over some eastern and southern territories. Southeast or northeast winds may reach 40 km/h and raise dust.

Convective clouds and rain are forecast for parts of the eastern and inland regions on Wednesday; wind speeds may occasionally increase up to 50 km/h.

On Thursday, rain clouds may form over the eastern and western areas, with winds again reaching 50 km/h. By Friday, the probability of precipitation will extend to some eastern, southern, and western areas, with wind speeds possibly reaching 40 km/h. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is expected to remain calm throughout the period.

Despite the rain forecast, temperatures will remain high. The maximum temperature in inland areas on Monday may reach between 45°C and 50°C, while highs on the coast and islands are expected to be within 42°C – 47°C. Mountain temperatures are forecast to be between 33°C and 39°C.

NCM previously told Khaleej Times that during previous rainy periods, cloud seeding flights were conducted whenever suitable clouds were detected. The center explained that intense summer heat stimulates the development of convective clouds through surface heating, but heat alone is not enough for precipitation. Humidity, moist air masses, atmospheric instability, upper troposphere, and favorable winds are also required. When all these elements coincide, thunderstorms and rain can develop even as temperatures approach 50°C.

According to the forecast from the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), the weather in the UAE is expected to be clear or partly cloudy on Monday, August 3.

There is a possibility of convective cloud formation in the east and south, which will lead to precipitation in the afternoon. A light to moderate southeast or northeast wind of 10–25 km/h is expected, which may occasionally increase to 40 km/h.

The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm. Overall temperatures across the country are predicted to reach a maximum of 48°C, with a minimum temperature of 25°C.

In major cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah, daytime temperatures will be 46°C, and nighttime temperatures will be 34°C, 33°C, and 32°C, respectively. Humidity levels in Dubai will fluctuate between 25 and 85 percent, in Abu Dhabi between 33 and 46 percent, and in Sharjah between 32 and 46 percent.

Residents of the UAE should expect further rain until August 6, as the expansion of the surface low-pressure system from the east will affect weather conditions. Furthermore, the weather will depend on the expansion of a weak upper atmospheric low-pressure system.

From August 2 to August 6, convective cloud formation is expected in some parts of the country, carrying the possibility of precipitation. Ahmed Habib, an NCM meteorologist, explained the possible cause of the rains during the hot summer in the UAE in a recent interview with Khaleej Times, suggesting that the ongoing El Niño wave might be the reason.

Residents of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) may expect a pleasant surprise in the coming days amid intense heat across the country. The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) has reported that rain and cloudy weather are forecast for the country until Monday, August 3rd.

Reasons for Weather Changes

Although this might be unexpected in the middle of summer, weather experts had previously warned about possible changes. Ahmed Habib, an NCM meteorologist, explained in an interview with Khaleej Times that the cause of precipitation in the country could be the El Niño wave. This natural climate cycle, which occurs around the globe every two to seven years and lasts almost a year, causes the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator to become significantly warmer than usual, shifting global wind and rainfall patterns.

In the UAE, this phenomenon contributes to increased atmospheric humidity, which many may have noticed as higher humidity in recent days, especially at night. While increased humidity creates conditions for the formation of convective clouds and increases the probability of rain, it does not affect the overall temperature, which is likely to remain high due to the extreme heat brought by El Niño to this region.

Future Forecasts

Habib noted that as the summer weather in the Emirates transitions to autumn, this phenomenon may become even more significant in the later season. He added that the influence of El Niño will be felt in the region starting in autumn, particularly in October and November, whereas currently, during the summer period, its impact is stronger in East Asia than in West Asia. In the UAE, this will lead to an increased chance of precipitation.

Weather Forecast Details

Since heavy rains and even hail were observed in the mountainous and coastal areas of Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, and Al Ain in recent days, the Meteorological Authority has issued a warning for further rainfall across the country from Thursday, July 30th, to Monday, August 3rd.

For Thursday, July 30th, clear or partly cloudy skies are expected, with a possibility of convective cloud formation in the afternoon over some eastern and western areas, which may be accompanied by rain. Light to moderate southeast or northeast winds are expected, occasionally fresh or strong, with dust being lifted by the wind at speeds of 10-25 km/h, reaching 45 km/h. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm. Coastal temperatures will range from 38°C to 44°C, with a minimum of 29°C to 35°C. Inland temperatures will fluctuate from a maximum of 43°C to 48°C, with a minimum of 25°C to 33°C. In the mountains, temperatures will remain between 30°C and 38°C, dropping to 26°C to 32°C.

On Friday, July 31st, clear or partly cloudy skies are forecast, with a probability of convective cloud formation in the east and south in the afternoon, which may lead to rain. Light to moderate southeast or northeast winds are expected at 10-20 km/h, reaching 40 km/h. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm. Coastal temperatures will range from 38°C to 44°C, with a minimum of 28°C to 35°C. Inland temperatures will fluctuate from 43°C to 48°C, with a minimum of 25°C to 33°C. In the mountains, temperatures will be in the range of 31°C to 38°C, dropping to 27°C to 32°C.

On Saturday, August 1st, clear or partly cloudy skies are expected, with cloud appearance in the east and south in the afternoon. Light to moderate southeast, transitioning to northwest winds at 10-20 km/h, reaching 30 km/h. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm. Coastal temperatures will range from 38°C to 44°C, with a minimum of 29°C to 35°C. Inland temperatures will fluctuate from 44°C to 49°C, with a minimum of 25°C to 34°C. In the mountains, temperatures will remain between 33°C and 39°C, dropping to 27°C to 33°C.

On Sunday, August 2nd, partly cloudy skies are expected in places, with cloud appearance in the east, which may be convective in the afternoon. Light to moderate southeast, transitioning to northwest winds at 10-20 km/h, reaching 30 km/h. Conditions in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea are likely to be calm. Coastal temperatures will range from 40°C to 46°C, with a minimum of 29°C to 36°C. Inland temperatures will fluctuate from 45°C to 49°C, with a minimum of 26°C to 34°C. In the mountains, temperatures will be in the range of 33°C to 40°C, dropping to 28°C to 33°C.

On Monday, August 3rd, partly cloudy skies are forecast in places, with a probability of convective cloud formation in the east and south, which may be accompanied by rain in the afternoon. Light to moderate southeast or northeast winds are expected, occasionally intensifying and causing dust to be lifted at speeds of 10-25 km/h, reaching 40 km/h. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm. Coastal temperatures will range from 39°C to 46°C, with a minimum of 27°C to 32°C. Inland temperatures will fluctuate from 45°C to 49°C, with a minimum of 26°C to 34°C. In the mountains, temperatures will remain between 32°C and 40°C, dropping to 29°C to 33°C.

Official Warnings

Under these weather conditions, authorities across the UAE are issuing yellow, orange, and red alerts depending on the severity of the rainfall in the respective areas. Drivers are advised to exercise caution on the roads, observe reduced speed limits, and follow traffic rules to ensure their own safety and the safety of other road users. Tourists and outdoor enthusiasts are advised to avoid wadis and valleys that may overflow during such periods, causing floods and washing away vehicles. Regarding hail, the NCM constantly urges residents to monitor weather forecasts through official channels, follow instructions issued by relevant authorities, and avoid spreading rumors.