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The situation in the United States could create serious problems not only for India but also for China. Recently, the US Senate passed a bill imposing sanctions on Russia, which grants the US President the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from countries that are major buyers of Russian oil and gas.

This move is causing concern in countries such as India and China, as they are among the leading consumers of Russian oil. The company Kpler assessed this situation as a risk factor for oil supplies to India.

According to a PTI report, the agency Kpler, which tracks vessel movements, their locations, and crude oil flows, believes that US actions could increase the probability of disruptions in oil supplies to India. Nevertheless, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritholia noted that no immediate changes in crude oil flows for India and China are expected.

The vote in the US Senate to tighten restrictions on Russia has increased the risk of disruptions to Russian crude oil supplies. The 'Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026' targets the five largest buyers of Russian energy, including India and China. The goal of this law is to limit Russia's revenue from oil and gas sales. However, according to available data, after being passed by the Senate, the bill still requires approval from the US House of Representatives and passage through other legislative and administrative stages before taking effect.

Kpler analyst Ritholia emphasized that the actual impact will heavily depend on how aggressively the Trump administration implements these measures. He also pointed out that the timing of any bans plays an important role, given the existing shortage in the global crude oil market. Uncertainty in supplies from West Asia has amplified the importance of finding alternative sources for all nations.

In Ritholia's opinion, Russian crude oil has become a critical source for Indian refineries, as it helped mitigate risks associated with potential supply route interruptions from the Middle East. Consequently, any decision made by the US regarding Russian oil could create serious difficulties for India in quickly replacing Russian oil purchases.

The sanctions bill against Russia will not only affect oil supplies but will also grant Donald Trump the right to impose tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil who continue to purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas. Previously, according to a Reuters report, some Democratic senators expressed concerns about this proposal from the Donald Trump administration. They argued that such measures give the president too broad authority to introduce new tariffs, which could affect US allies and increase costs for American consumers.

The main reason for India's concern is that in 2022, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began, India significantly increased its purchases of discounted Russian crude oil. It should be noted that India imports about 85% of its crude oil needs and has become one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. Russian oil provided Indian refineries with raw materials at preferential prices, helping to maintain uninterrupted fuel supplies within the country.