According to an analysis conducted by Parul Baxshi of the Middle East Research Foundation (ORF ME) in Dubai, India possesses the necessary technological and institutional capabilities for a long-term partnership with Uzbekistan in the field of renewable energy. However, in terms of actual participation in projects, the country significantly lags behind the Gulf states and China.
Scale of the Energy Transition
ORF ME notes that the installed capacity of renewable energy sources in Uzbekistan has increased from 1,883 MW in 2016 to over 10,000 MW by the end of 2025, representing a growth of more than five times in less than a decade. More than half of this capacity is generated by solar energy. The country aims to increase the share of renewable sources in electricity generation to 50% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In recent years, Uzbekistan has attracted over $35 billion in investments into its energy sector through competitive international tenders for large projects.
Leadership of Gulf and Chinese Countries in Investments
The analysis points to companies from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and China as the main foreign drivers of renewable energy expansion in Uzbekistan. Masdar from the UAE has been operating in Uzbekistan since 2019, having built five solar power plants with a total capacity of 1,247 MW, a 500 MW wind farm, and a 63 MW battery energy storage system. ACWA Power from Saudi Arabia has implemented a portfolio of projects worth about $15 billion and plans to increase it to $25 billion by the end of the decade. In 2023 alone, Chinese investments in Uzbekistan's solar and wind energy sectors under the 'Belt and Road' initiative amounted to about $1.4 billion. Chinese enterprises have also constructed the country's first large-scale solar power plant—a 400 MW photovoltaic facility in the Andijan region.
Structural Factors of the Energy Transition
The study's authors argue that the expansion of renewable energy is driven not only by climate goals but also by structural vulnerabilities in Uzbekistan's energy system. Natural gas accounts for 83% of the country's energy balance and 82% of electricity generation. Since 2020, Uzbekistan has transitioned from being a net energy exporter to a net importer. The cost of exporting refined fuel has decreased by more than half between 2019 and 2023, reaching about $1 billion, while imports have more than doubled, reaching $2.68 billion. According to ORF ME estimates, 66% of the country's transmission lines and 74% of substations are over 30 years old, reflecting decades of insufficient funding during the Soviet period. The government intends to add 12 GW of variable renewable energy capacity by 2030, including 7 GW of solar, 5 GW of wind, and 1.5 GW of hydropower.
Areas for Indian Participation
Analysts identify solar energy as the most obvious area for cooperation, noting that India's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has increased domestic solar module manufacturing capacity to over 120 GW, and solar cell capacity to 29.3 GW as of mid-2025. As examples of India's commercial engagement in Uzbekistan, the authors cite discussions between representatives of Adani Group and Reliance Industries and Uzbek officials, as well as NTPC's participation in solar project tenders and consulting projects in the gas sector. The analysis also highlights the 2021 Memorandum of Understanding between the National Institute of Solar Energy of India (NISE) and the International Solar Energy Institute of Uzbekistan (ISEI), concerning cooperation in photovoltaic equipment manufacturing and technology transfer. Nevertheless, the authors believe this agreement has largely not been implemented at the institutional level. In the wind energy sector, India, which has an annual wind turbine production capacity of about 18,000 MW and is the fourth largest in installed wind power globally, can provide technology and engineering services. Installed wind power capacity in Uzbekistan has grown from 1 MW to 1,652 MW between 2016 and 2025. Analysts also point to critical minerals as another area for cooperation. Uzbekistan holds the second-largest reserves in Central Asia of copper, molybdenum, gold, and other minerals vital for the energy transition, although only 16 out of 71 identified deposits in the country are currently being developed. At the 14th session of the India-Uzbekistan Intergovernmental Commission in June 2026, India designated the supply of critical minerals as a priority area for energy cooperation.
Bilateral Context
India and Uzbekistan have maintained a strategic partnership since 2011, with bilateral trade reaching $1.32 billion. At the Fourth India-Central Asia Dialogue, held in New Delhi in June 2025, attended by the foreign ministers of all five Central Asian states, a joint statement mentioned support for the International Solar Alliance, joint exploration of rare earth minerals, and support for Uzbekistan's accession to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). ORF ME authors conclude that India's commercial presence remains modest compared to the positions already occupied by companies from Gulf and Chinese countries, and that partnerships formed during this current phase of Uzbekistan's rapid renewable energy development will define the country's energy sector for decades to come.
