India's currency, the rupee (₹), closed at 95.08 against the US dollar, showing a strengthening of 20 points compared to the previous day. Thus, the rupee demonstrated growth for the ninth consecutive trading session. Since July 23, when the rate was 96.73 per US dollar, the rupee has strengthened by 165 points, which is approximately 1.7%. This is the longest continuous growth trend for the Indian rupee against the US dollar in over a year. A similar rise was previously observed between June 5 and June 12 last year.
The rupee's strengthening occurred against the backdrop of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deciding to keep the key repo rate at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive time. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI also made no changes to its 'neutral' policy stance. This decision, taken amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, signaled stability to the market.
In the interbank foreign exchange market, the Indian rupee opened at a rate of 94.90 to the US dollar. During trading, it fluctuated between 94.89 and 95.25. Ultimately, it closed at 95.08, representing an increase of 20 points compared to the previous session. Prior to this, on August 4, the rupee had also strengthened by 9 points, closing at 95.28.
According to currency market analysts, the rupee received support due to the drop in crude oil prices overnight, the weakening of the dollar in the global market, and the easing of US Treasury yields. These three factors contributed to positive investor sentiment and strengthened the Indian currency. Furthermore, the RBI maintained confidence in the measures announced in the previous monetary policy aimed at increasing foreign capital inflow and supporting the rupee.
After reviewing the policy, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that despite a strong inflow of foreign capital, the rupee could not rise to the expected level. He expressed the view that further strengthening of the rupee is possible if the conflict in the Middle East subsides. He also emphasized that the RBI will ensure the orderly and balanced movement of the rupee.
Market expert Anuj Choudhary believes that the reduction in tensions between the US and Iran has improved global risk sentiment, which could benefit the rupee. He added that market attention is now focused on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which may play a key role in determining the direction of the dollar. According to his forecasts, the spot USD-INR rate may remain in the range of 94.80 to 95.50 in the short term.
At the end of the trading day, the dollar index stood at 99.82, recording a fall of 0.03%. Meanwhile, Brent Crude traded at $80.75 per barrel, showing a rise of 1.75%, although this figure is significantly below the level above $100 per barrel recorded in July. Strengthening was also observed in the domestic stock market. SENSEX closed at 78,581, up by 152.05 points, while NIFTY finished trading at 24,624.65 with a gain of 9.75 points. According to exchange data, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) recorded net sales of 943.42 crore rupees on Wednesday.


