Although temperatures in Iran are near normal, some regions recorded above-average temperature increases this week, while Europe is currently experiencing a severe heatwave that has triggered destructive forest fires.
According to Ahmad Vazifeh, head of the National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management at the Iranian Meteorological Organization, the extreme conditions are caused by a combination of climate teleconnected patterns, such as El Niño, long-term climate change, and polar ice melt.
Europe registered its hottest June on record this year. During the current week, temperatures in countries like France, Germany, and Spain are forecast to remain approximately 1–3 degrees Celsius above seasonal averages.
Furthermore, a significant temperature deviation is expected in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic region, as well as in Italy and Switzerland. Similar conditions are predicted for parts of Poland, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, while Austria, Hungary, and Bosnia and Herzegovina may face temperature increases of 5–10 degrees Celsius above normal, Vazifeh told ISNA agency.
Explaining the causes of the exceptional summer heat in Europe, the expert noted that the development of large-scale climate teleconnected patterns has led to tropical regions and mid-latitudes—up to approximately 60 degrees north and south latitude—being in their warmest state since the post-industrial era.
Ocean temperatures have also risen sharply: the average sea surface temperature between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north latitude reached approximately 21 degrees Celsius.
He added that the volume of polar ice has significantly decreased and is currently at the lowest level in observation history, calling ocean warming and polar ice reduction key indicators of changing global climate. In addition to these long-term trends, regional atmospheric patterns can also intensify seasonal heatwaves. Such events depend on various climatic factors, including El Niño, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Vazifeh concluded that seasonal climate variability combined with global warming can sometimes cause powerful heatwaves capable of raising temperatures by 10 degrees Celsius or more above normal, while during other periods leading to conditions cooler than average. Most of Central and Eastern Europe should face exceptionally strong temperature anomalies over the next one to two weeks.
