A SpaceX rocket fragment that has been in space since last year was expected to collide with the Moon at high speed on Wednesday. The Al-Khatem Observatory in the UAE attempted to record the consequences of this impact on the lunar surface.
A SpaceX rocket fragment that has been in space since last year was expected to collide with the Moon at high speed on Wednesday. The Al-Khatem Observatory in the UAE attempted to record the consequences of this impact on the lunar surface.
Astronomical calculations indicated that the upper stage of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was scheduled to impact the lunar surface on August 5, 2026, at 06:34:31 UTC. This object was launched as part of a mission on January 15, 2025, during which the Falcon 9 rocket delivered two lunar landers—the American Blue Ghost and the Japanese Hakuto-R—to trajectories near the Moon.
After the two spacecraft were placed on their trajectories, the rocket's upper stage separated and remained in a highly elongated near-Earth orbit, influenced by the gravitational forces of the Earth and the Moon, as well as solar radiation pressure.
Scientists could not confidently state whether the collision effects would be visible from Earth. Forecasts ranged from observing a brief flash to detecting a cloud of dust and rocks ejected during the impact, or no visible consequences at all, with the latter considered the most likely outcome.
Nevertheless, the uncertainty made the event worthy of observation, according to the Astronomy Center. From the Al-Khatem Observatory in Abu Dhabi, the collision was recorded during the daytime, at 10:35 AM local time, when the Moon was only 16 degrees above the horizon. These conditions complicated observation due to the brightness of daylight and atmospheric turbulence, which reduced the clarity of the lunar image because of the object's low altitude.
Estimates suggested that the collision would eject about 450 cubic meters of lunar regolith and rock, equivalent to approximately 1100 metric tons of material, based on an average density of 2.5 grams per cubic centimeter. In the Moon's weak gravity, the material released at the calculated velocity would continue to rise for about a minute, reaching an altitude of approximately 3 kilometers above the lunar surface before beginning to descend and falling back down about a minute later.
Since the collision was expected near the lunar limb (the outer edge or boundary of the visible disk of the Moon as seen from Earth), some ejected particles might have become visible above the lunar limb. However, the maximum angular separation from the lunar disk was estimated to be only 1.5 arcseconds—an extremely small distance that would make detection difficult even with large telescopes.
These calculations depended on numerous assumptions. Some rocks might have been ejected at a significantly higher velocity—possibly up to 300 meters per second, allowing them to remain airborne for three minutes and reach altitudes more than nine times the baseline estimate. Such a scenario would increase the chances of detection. For this reason, observers were advised to point telescopes at the predicted impact site before the event and continue monitoring for several minutes afterward in hopes of spotting a flash or a cloud of ejected material.
The Al-Khatem Observatory directed its main telescope toward the Moon and continuously filmed the impact site from one minute before the predicted collision until five minutes after it. Neither a collision flash nor visible emission of lunar material was detected. Researchers worldwide are now awaiting data from other ground-based observatories and space telescopes that monitored this event to analyze the collision results.
The Astronomy Center shared an image of the Moon two minutes after the impact. The impact site is located on the left edge of the Moon, slightly to the left of the plus (+) marker. They also published a timelapse video of the entire observation session from the observatory, which lasted about six minutes.
The upper stage of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is preparing for an unexpected flight, concluding its trajectory on the surface of the Moon. It is anticipated that the impact will result in the formation of a new crater and assist researchers in studying the consequences of space collisions.
The object had been in orbit for over 18 months following the lunar mission. Its path to the Moon was not planned but was determined by the action of gravity and solar activity.
The Falcon 9 was launched in January 2025 with two private probes: Blue Ghost from Firefly Aerospace and Resilience, built by the Japanese company ispace. The Blue Ghost probe successfully landed and completed its mission, while Resilience failed during its landing attempt. Meanwhile, the rocket's upper stage headed toward another destination.
Typically, SpaceX controls the end-of-life of such components through a planned entry into the Earth's atmosphere. However, in this launch, almost all the fuel was used to deliver the probes to the lunar region. The stage, weighing about four thousand kilograms, was in a high orbit crossing the lunar area. It is projected to reach the lunar surface this Wednesday (the 5th) around 3:35 AM Brazilian time, forming a crater approximately 27 meters in size.
The rocket was not commanded to move toward the Moon; the change in course occurred slowly as natural forces altered its trajectory. Juliana Sheiman, Director of NASA Science Programs and Dragon Capsules at SpaceX, explained that the combination of solar activity and gravitational forces directed the object onto a lunar path. This incident draws attention because it demonstrates a growing problem in space exploration: what to do with equipment that continues to orbit after a mission is complete.
Key points related to the collision include: the stage weighs about four thousand kilograms; the impact should open a crater approximately 27 meters in size; scientists will be able to study how impacts affect the lunar surface; the data obtained may help in planning future crewed missions.
Most people on Earth are unlikely to see the collision, as it will occur on the illuminated side of the Moon. Nevertheless, astronomers with powerful telescopes will be able to detect the plume of material ejected during the impact. Benjamin Fernando, a researcher at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and lead investigator of this event, stated that the phenomenon will help better understand the dangers posed by space debris. This concern is linked to NASA's plans to build a base near the Moon's south pole as part of the Artemis program. Since astronauts will live there for extended periods, preventing unexpected collisions will become an important issue. SpaceX is collaborating with NASA and other agencies to find safer ways to dispose of high-energy mission stages.
The Falcon 9 will not be the first object to reach the Moon in this manner. In 2022, the upper stage of the Long March 3C rocket created a rare double crater on the lunar surface. The new impact should add more data to understanding how these events occur and how to mitigate associated risks in the future. Brazilian astronomers are already preparing their telescopes!
As in many parts of the world, astronomers in Brazil are anticipating this moment. Some of them will also cover the collision in real-time, including profiles from AstroNEOS, Astronomia Ao Vivo, OARU – Observatório Astronômico Rei do Universo, and Mistérios do Espaço.
