An upper stage of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to perform an unplanned flight, ending its trajectory on the lunar surface. This impact is expected to generate a new crater, assisting researchers in studying the effects of space collisions.
The component remained in orbit for more than eighteen months after a lunar mission. Although the trajectory to the Moon was not planned, it was determined by the influence of gravity and solar activity.
The Falcon 9 was launched in January 2025 carrying two private probes: Blue Ghost, belonging to Firefly Aerospace, and Resilience, developed by the Japanese company ispace. Blue Ghost managed to land and complete its mission, while Resilience failed in its landing attempt. However, the rocket's upper stage followed a different destiny.
Generally, SpaceX manages the end of life for these modules through a controlled reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. However, in this specific launch, most of the fuel was used to transport the probes to the lunar area. Weighing approximately four thousand kilograms, the stage remained in a high orbit crossing the lunar region.
It is predicted that it will reach the lunar surface on Wednesday (5th), around 3:35 AM Brasília time, resulting in a crater about 27 meters in diameter.
The rocket received no instructions to head to the Moon; the change occurred gradually, driven by natural forces. Julianna Scheiman, Director of NASA Science Programs and SpaceX Dragon capsules, clarified that the combination of solar activity and gravitational forces led the object onto the lunar path.
This incident highlights a growing challenge in space exploration: how to deal with equipment that continues orbiting after the completion of its missions. Among the crucial aspects of this impact are: the weight of the stage, estimated at about 4,000 kilograms; the opening of a crater of approximately 27 meters; the opportunity for scientists to analyze how impacts affect the lunar surface; and the possibility that the data will aid in planning future crewed missions.
It is unlikely that most people on Earth will observe the collision, as it will occur on the sunlit side of the Moon. However, astronomers equipped with powerful telescopes can detect the cloud of material expelled by the impact. Benjamin Fernando, a researcher at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and leader of a study on the event, stated that the phenomenon will contribute to a better understanding of the dangers posed by space debris.
The concern is directly linked to NASA's plans to establish a base near the lunar south pole through the Artemis program. With astronauts residing there for extended periods, preventing unexpected collisions becomes a matter of great importance. SpaceX collaborates with NASA and other agencies to develop safer methods for disposing of stages used in high-energy missions.
The Falcon 9 will not be the first object to hit the Moon in this manner. In 2022, an upper stage of the Long March 3C rocket formed a rare double crater on the lunar surface. This new impact will add more information to understand how such occurrences happen and how to mitigate their risks in the future.
The space-left rocket stage is on a collision course with the Moon. This event, scheduled for 2026, will provide scientists with the opportunity to study the details of an artificial impact on the natural satellite for the first time.
The object belongs to the Falcon 9 rocket from SpaceX and is expected to reach the Einstein Crater area on the near side of the Moon, while astronomers monitor this phenomenon. According to the study, the collision will occur on August 5, 2026. This object is the upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket, identified as 2025-010D.
The rocket was launched in January 2025 to support the sending of two private robotic modules into space. After completing its mission, it lost fuel and began moving along a trajectory that will lead it to the surface of the Moon. The stage is about 12 meters long, 4 meters wide, and weighs approximately 4 tons, and is expected to reach the Moon at a speed close to 8,750 km/h.
Researchers used data calculated by astronomer Bill Gray and physical simulations to predict the results of the collision. Since the rocket has a hollow metal body, it is expected to be destroyed upon impact rather than penetrating deeply into the ground like a compact asteroid.
Projections indicate that this event could cause:
Scientists hope that professionals and amateur astronomers can witness this moment. The resulting images may help in studying how objects reach the lunar surface and improve methods used in future research. The collision is expected to happen at 03:35 Brazilian time. Since the impact will occur on the near side of the Moon, cameras capable of recording high-speed video will be required.
According to astronomer Marcelo Zurita, who is a columnist for Olhar Digital, the impact may be visible from Brazil and will occur near the Carroll Crater, named after the Artemis 2 mission. Expected signs include a 'flash at the moment of impact' and a 'jet of ejected material'. The fall of the Falcon 9 stage will be a rare opportunity to observe a man-made object colliding with another world. In addition to the visual spectacle, the recordings may reveal the reaction of the lunar surface to this type of impact.
