Although not related to El Niño, dry periods in the Western Cape negatively affect South Africa ahead of a forecasted powerful El Niño event, which is expected to impact vast areas.
Although not related to El Niño, dry periods in the Western Cape negatively affect South Africa ahead of a forecasted powerful El Niño event, which is expected to impact vast areas.
According to a statement from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) on Friday, July 31, lower rainfall was observed in June, which continued into July in the southwestern part of the province, with some areas recording the lowest rainfall for July.
Previously, in May and early June 2026, several strong weather systems affected parts of the Western Cape, significantly improving water reserves in many parts of the province. However, since then, a strong blocking Atlantic high-pressure system west of the country has caused cold frontal systems to move further south of the province.
Since these cold fronts did not reach the province, the rains they usually bring did not fall there. The Cape Town International Airport registered only 14.4 mm of rainfall in July, the lowest monthly figure in 68 years.
SAWS had been forecasting a relatively dry winter for the southwestern parts of the Western Cape for months, and this has become a reality with worrying consequences, including the impact on winter wheat crops.
Vandile Sikhlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Association, noted that adverse weather conditions continue to put pressure on agricultural activities, especially winter crops. He added that approximately 473,000 hectares of wheat were sown in South Africa in 2026, which is 8% less than last year, and this is the smallest area allocated to wheat since 1929.
These droughts are not directly related to the developing El Niño, which usually manifests in South Africa in spring and summer. In winter, the weather in the southwest of South Africa is mainly determined by mid-latitude cyclones forming over the South Atlantic Ocean.
However, the consequences of this El Niño—which is widely forecast to be potentially the strongest in history—will soon be felt across South Africa. Caused by warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it usually heralds drought in this region.
SAWS advised the public to use water sparingly in the coming months, given the current uncertainty regarding rainfall in the 2027 winter season.
On Friday, SAWS also released its monthly Seasonal Climate Outlook, which covers five months ahead—in this case, until the end of December—and El Niño now takes center stage in this forecast. According to the report, South Africa is expected to experience typical consequences in the form of drier and warmer conditions in the coming summer.
It is concerning that this forecast has changed compared to the previous one, which predicted above-average rainfall on the east coast at the end of winter and in spring. SAWS reported that the eastern coastal areas show a probability of below-average rainfall conditions, which is significant as these areas are beginning their rainy season.
Thus, this summer looks long, hot, and dry.
Despite the approaching drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon in the 2026–27 season, economist Agbiz Vandile Sikhlobo offers an encouraging forecast for South African consumers. Unlike previous drought periods, prolonged late rains have contributed to increased soil moisture and reservoir levels. Furthermore, record summer harvests and significant previously accumulated grain reserves should mitigate food price increases and inflation in 2027.
Experts and economists in the country are actively discussing the potential impact of the forecasted El Niño on agriculture and food prices in 2027. By mid-2026, weather forecasts indicated a possible onset of a strong El Niño. This phenomenon typically leads to drought in the South African region, negatively affecting agricultural production.
In his work as an agricultural economist, visiting various farming areas in South Africa, Vandile Sikhlobo highlights two key aspects when assessing the influence of El Niño on crop yields and food price inflation. Firstly, in the 2026–27 season, South Africa will begin with higher soil moisture. This is due to excessive rains in the 2025–26 season, which lasted longer than usual, extending until May 2026, whereas summer rains usually end around March. These precipitation events have improved the water levels in irrigation reservoirs, as well as soil and groundwater moisture, putting the country in a more favorable position before the new season.
Secondly, the country possesses large grain reserves and has a high grain stock, which can weaken some of the drought's impact on food prices and, consequently, on inflation. Food accounts for about 16.8% of South Africa's inflation basket, so rising food price inflation affects the overall inflation trend. Nevertheless, it is likely that 2027 will not resemble previous dry spells that caused noticeable increases in food price inflation and the overall inflation rate.
Maize is the main grain crop in South Africa. In the past, droughts led to substantial maize crop losses and broader impacts on other types of agriculture. For instance, one of the most memorable droughts occurred in the 2014–15 and 2015–16 seasons, when the average maize yield was about 8.9 million tons. For comparison, the current 2025–26 season expects a maize harvest of 17.3 million tons. Annual maize consumption in South Africa is approximately 12.0 million tons, and smaller harvests forced the country to import, leading to a spike in food price inflation, which averaged 10.8% in 2016 (compared to an average of 3.2% in the first five months of 2026).
The impact was felt not only on maize but also on field crops, including wheat, soy, sunflower seeds, and sugarcane. Approximately 20% of South Africa's field crops are irrigated, while the rest depend on rainfall. All fruit and vegetable production is carried out through irrigation and will benefit from higher water levels in reservoirs this year.
The first difference is that South Africa benefited from the prolonged La Niña phenomenon, which makes the region wetter and supported the agricultural sector in recent years. The rains contribute to a better farming situation before the 2026–27 season. In the 2024–25 season, summer rains continued until April 2025, and in the 2025–26 season, they extended until May 2026. Usually, such long periods of precipitation raise concerns about crop quality, but in the areas where the 2025–26 harvest was collected, no serious quality issues were observed. Moreover, the latest crop assessment committee forecasts have been revised upwards and still point to a record summer harvest for 2025–26.
The longer rainy season has improved soil moisture and groundwater levels. The planting period will begin in October 2026, and sufficient soil moisture can support seed germination and crop development, even if El Niño conditions lead to reduced rainfall. However, the timing of precipitation will be crucial for crop development.
In irrigated areas, such as fruit and vegetable growing regions, the recent years' La Niña rains have raised water levels in reservoirs and the general groundwater level. Regarding livestock, pastures across the country are in satisfactory condition thanks to longer rainy periods, and the improved groundwater level will continue to support pastures.
The second key factor is that in the 2025–26 season, South Africa harvested its largest summer yield of grains and oilseeds. The Crop Assessment Committee recorded a record summer harvest volume of 21.49 million tons for 2025–26, which is 5% more than the previous year. It is particularly noteworthy that for major grain crops, the maize production estimate for 2025–26 reached 17.25 million tons, which is 4% higher than the previous year and the largest harvest in history. This abundant grain collection is supplemented by large reserves remaining from the previous season.
The forecasted drought is not ideal and may create difficulties for farmers. However, the upcoming drought cannot be viewed the same way as previous dry spells. There are clear factors that could make the coming season more favorable than past droughts.
