Experts warn that Washington's attempt to stabilize oil prices by releasing strategic reserves is doomed to fail because Iran's dominant position in the Strait of Hormuz renders American threats increasingly hollow.
In a harsh assessment of US energy policy, the HFI Research Institute presented a sharp verdict: America's widely publicized plan to release strategic petroleum reserves will prove completely incapable of solving the reverse pricing crisis gripping global oil markets. This statement came amid growing skepticism among global energy analysts regarding Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's theory that eliminating reverse pricing would automatically lead to lower prices.
The institute's analysis revealed a fundamental error in Washington's approach. Although US officials discussed the possibility of releasing an additional 70 million barrels, bringing the total volume to 200 million, experts caution that the insignificant release rate of 0.5–0.6 million barrels per day is comparable to 'pouring a glass of water on a forest fire.' The market is unconvinced that an immediate increase in supply is sufficient to neutralize constant price pressure—and this is entirely understandable.
What Washington refuses to acknowledge is the geopolitical reality that Iran controls one of the world's most critical energy supply nodes. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil production passes, remains under Iranian influence. Any military or economic offensive by the US against Iran would provoke an immediate and catastrophic disruption in global energy supplies, which cannot be compensated for by any volume of strategic reserves.
Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to close or restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz, rendering American threats comically powerless. Despite military rhetoric, the US lacks the naval capability or international legitimacy to ensure the security of this waterway against determined Iranian resistance. Tehran's integrated air defense systems, anti-ship missile capabilities, and asymmetric warfare tactics have turned the strait into an area where US Navy dominance is no longer guaranteed.
The most insightful observation in the HFI report concerns the 'speed and intensity' of oil entering the market. Even if the US could somehow release its reserves, the slow distribution process guarantees the persistence of market anxiety. Meanwhile, a recent agreement between Iran and the US regarding Middle Eastern oil has excluded any other source of immediate supply for one-off market dips.
This situation exposes the bankruptcy of the American economic war against Iran. Simultaneously threatening Iran and desperately trying to stabilize oil markets, Washington has trapped itself in a contradiction of its own making. Every aggressive statement by US officials about Iran or the Strait of Hormuz only heightens market fears, pushing prices up—which is the complete opposite of what the Biden administration claims it wants.
The United States' inability to control oil prices through its strategic reserves reflects a broader failure of American hegemony. Washington's threats against Iran—whether military, economic, or diplomatic—have consistently turned against them, strengthening Tehran's regional position while simultaneously exposing US vulnerabilities.
Iranian leadership has long understood that oil markets react not only to fundamental supply and demand factors but also to geopolitical perceptions. By maintaining credible deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran ensures that any aggression from the US will come at an unacceptable cost to the global economy. The US, despite all its bravado, cannot guarantee the safe passage of even one tanker through the strait without the risk of a wider conflict that would overshadow any benefits from reserve releases.
As the HFI analysis clearly shows, America's strategic petroleum reserve is not a solution to its self-inflicted oil crisis. The sooner US politicians recognize Iran's legitimate role in regional security and abandon their failed maximalist pressure policy, the faster global energy markets can find stability. Until then, Washington's ongoing threats against Iran and its empty warnings about the Strait of Hormuz will sound increasingly false—and expensive for American consumers who bear the costs of this flawed approach.
