Artificial Intelligence assists researchers in predicting the consequences of El Niño in Brazil

Researchers at UNIASSELVI developed a study that uses artificial intelligence and automation to compile climate data and assess the potential impacts of a Super El Niño event in Brazilian territory.

The investigation indicates a 97% probability of the phenomenon remaining active until 2027 and an 81% chance of reaching a very strong intensity, whose effects may vary depending on the location within the country.

How AI consolidates information for climate risk analysis

This study uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference data from various meteorological institutions, presenting projections on the dynamics of El Niño in a single analysis. The work was conducted by Fábio Henrique Moisés and Matheus Fernando Cunha, Software Engineering students at UNIASSELVI, under the supervision of Professor Pedro Sidnei Zanchett.

Additionally, the research is linked to Zanchett's RADIAN doctoral thesis, which focuses on decision support systems for natural disaster management, using generative AI, cloud computing, and automation.

It is important to note that despite the use of sophisticated technology, the study does not generate an autonomous climate forecast through artificial intelligence; its function is to organize and compare projections issued by both national and international meteorological centers. The novelty lies in the integration of AI, automation, and scientific knowledge to support decision-making in risk scenarios, given that climate change demands new ways of interpreting data.

Pedro Sidnei Zanchett, a professor at UNIASSELVI and advisor for the project, commented on the topic.

Diagnosis based on data from major institutions

To build this analysis, the researchers collected information from entities such as NOAA, NASA, INPE, INMET, CEMADEN, and IRI. The purpose was to confront different climate models and identify similarities between the forecasts. According to Moisés, the technology facilitates the transformation of existing data into more structured analyses.

The researcher stated: 'Artificial intelligence allows consolidating thousands of pieces of information produced by different institutions and transforming them into analyses capable of supporting faster and more informed decisions. The challenge is not to produce more data, but to connect the knowledge that already exists.'

Among the central aspects examined by the study are: the possibility of a high-intensity El Niño until 2027; the combination of data from Brazilian and foreign climate agencies; the use of AI and automation in organizing information; and support for planning against possible extreme events. Although the term Super El Niño is not an official technical nomenclature, it is frequently used to describe episodes of great magnitude of the phenomenon, caused by the unusual warming of the equatorial Pacific waters.

Impacts may vary according to the Brazilian region

The predicted effects will not be uniform across the entire country. While the North and Northeast regions may experience periods of greater drought, the Center-West and parts of the Southeast may record heatwaves and decreased precipitation. On the other hand, the South Region is pointed out as having the greatest potential for intense rainfall and flooding.

In the agricultural sector, the research signals possible losses to crops such as rice, wheat, soy, corn, and coffee. Furthermore, the combination of heat and altered rainfall patterns can increase thermal stress on livestock.

The study also highlights risks related to the expansion of fires in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Pantanal, coupled with the deterioration of air quality and the increase in respiratory and cardiovascular problems associated with heat peaks. Cunha reinforced that the research does not replace the work done by meteorological centers, stating: 'The consensus among the main international climate models is an important sign that the country must prepare itself. Our research organizes this evidence and demonstrates how intelligent technologies can contribute to increasing the response capacity in the face of extreme events.'

Even with technological advances, artificial intelligence remains a support tool. The results are conditioned by the quality of the analyzed data and may undergo modifications as the climate evolves, demonstrating how technology helps specialists organize information and anticipate potential risks, without replacing conventional scientific analysis.

olhardigital.com.brJuly 24, 18:58

Study from Minas Gerais proposes new classification system for extremophiles similar to Martian conditions

A doctoral study conducted at the University of São Paulo (USP) presented a new methodology for categorizing organisms capable of surviving in environments with high salt concentrations.

Research in the Diamantina Region

Molecular scientist Ana Paula Chiavo developed this work at the university's Chemistry Institute with support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). The study analyzed microorganisms found in the Diamantina region (Minas Gerais), where the soil is rich in iron and resembles conditions existing on Mars.

The main goal of the study was to understand how microscopic life forms can simultaneously resist high salinity and intense ultraviolet radiation.

Need for a New Classification

The proposal arose due to the lack of a universally accepted standard in the scientific community for defining different groups of extremophiles—organisms adapted to conditions considered harsh for most living beings. The new system uses statistical criteria based on the optimal growth of species at various salinity levels.

Halophile Classification

Halophiles belong to the group of extremophiles and are associated with environments containing large amounts of sodium chloride. Previously used categories to distinguish between weakly, moderately, or highly halophilic species depended on salt concentration ranges that, according to the researchers, lacked a unified scientific basis.

To create a new proposal, Chiavo gathered data on 1298 species described as halophilic or halotolerant from articles published between 1967 and 2021 in the International Journal of Systematic and Evolutionary Microbiology. The analysis revealed discrepancies in the criteria used by different studies, including the definition of extreme conditions.

The researcher also noted that some works incorrectly defined the optimal growth point of microorganisms—that is, the salinity level at which each species demonstrates the greatest capacity for development.

Methodology and Application

The system presented in the dissertation is based on a statistical approach, using quartiles—a mathematical tool for dividing datasets according to their distribution. The initial reference point was the average salt concentration in oceans. Based on this parameter, organisms whose optimal growth occurs at a salinity level similar to or lower than the marine environment are classified as non-halophilic or halotolerant. Above this threshold, microorganisms are distributed into categories of light, moderate, and extreme halophily depending on their adaptation to higher salt concentrations.

Contribution to Astrobiology

In addition to organizing the classification of halophiles, the work relates to astrobiology, the field dedicated to studying the origin, evolution, and distribution of life in the Universe. Mars is one of the main focuses of this field because it possesses environments with characteristics that help explore the limits of biological survival.

The planet has regions with high salt concentrations, including compounds harmful to terrestrial organisms, and is also subjected to intense ultraviolet radiation on its surface. The study suggests that if life existed on Mars, it might have inhabited underground environments, such as aquifers, protected and sustained by liquids due to the presence of salts.

The microorganisms studied in Minas Gerais were used as a benchmark for understanding adaptation strategies to multiple extreme conditions. It is expected that a standardized classification will facilitate interaction among scientists studying organisms resistant to high-salinity environments, including in the context of space exploration. The new proposal also led to the creation of a preliminary paper, 'Proposal for a New Halophile Classification System Based on the Statistical Rarity Definition of Extremophiles,' which is under review by a specialized scientific journal on extremophiles.