For decades, geopolitical risks have been viewed primarily through the lens of oil. Every major conflict in the Middle East has been analyzed in terms of energy security, shipping routes, and crude oil prices. However, a quieter but potentially more significant strategic challenge is emerging—fertilizers are rapidly transforming into one of the world's most critical geopolitical commodities, profoundly impacting the food security, inflation, and economic stability of Global South nations.
Modern agriculture is inextricably linked to nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonia and urea. These products ensure the yield of staple crops, including rice, wheat, corn, and sorghum, feeding billions of people annually. Unlike many industrial goods, a fertilizer shortage cannot simply be compensated for by delaying purchases; missing the fertilization season can reduce the harvest for an entire year, simultaneously affecting food availability, farmers' incomes, and national inflation.
This vulnerability has become evident as geopolitical conflicts move beyond traditional military zones and begin disrupting critical industrial supply chains. Energy infrastructure, natural gas production facilities, and maritime trade routes have become targets in regional clashes, demonstrating the high interconnectedness of the global food system. Since natural gas is the primary raw material for producing nitrogen fertilizers, any disruption in gas markets is quickly reflected in agricultural markets.
The consequences are particularly severe for countries heavily reliant on fertilizer imports. In Africa and South Asia, governments have spent years working to increase agricultural productivity to improve food security and reduce rural poverty. Now, these achievements are increasingly at risk due to geopolitical events occurring thousands of kilometers away.
For countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and India, fertilizer imports represent not just a commercial transaction but a strategic necessity. Millions of smallholder farmers depend on accessible fertilizers to maintain yields, yet they operate on very narrow profit margins. Even a slight increase in fertilizer prices can force farmers to reduce application rates, leading to lower harvests and higher food prices months later.
The impact extends far beyond agriculture. Rising food prices directly fuel inflation, putting pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy. Governments often respond by expanding fertilizer subsidies or food aid programs, increasing the fiscal burden while many developing economies are already grappling with high levels of debt. Thus, a supply chain disruption can transform into a broader macroeconomic problem affecting growth, public finances, and political stability.
The situation also highlights an often overlooked dimension of energy security. Natural gas is important not only because it powers homes and industry; it has become an indispensable component of global food production. This creates a dual dependency where disruptions in gas markets simultaneously threaten electricity generation, industrial output, and agricultural yield. As geopolitical tensions continue to affect global energy infrastructure, fertilizer markets are likely to experience greater volatility than in previous decades.
For BRICS unity and the wider Global South, these changes underscore the importance of building more resilient supply chains. Some BRICS members already hold influential positions in global agricultural and fertilizer markets. Russia is one of the world's largest fertilizer exporters, while China remains a major producer despite periodic adjustments to export policies favoring domestic supply. Brazil is one of the largest fertilizer consumers, reflecting the importance of agricultural production to its economy. India, in turn, has become one of the largest importers of nitrogen fertilizers, making reliable access a strategic priority.
This opens opportunities for deepening cooperation among South countries. Investments in regional fertilizer production, expansion of natural gas processing capacity, diversification of import sources, and improvement of transport infrastructure can reduce dependence on a small number of vulnerable supply routes. Institutions such as the New Development Bank can also play a role in financing strategic agricultural infrastructure that strengthens long-term food security.
Climate change adds another layer of complexity. Extreme weather events are already putting pressure on agricultural productivity in many developing countries. If climate shocks occur amid prolonged fertilizer supply disruptions, the cumulative impact on harvests could be far greater than the impact of each challenge in isolation. Consequently, food security becomes an issue at the intersection of climate resilience, industrial policy, and geopolitical strategy.
The conclusion is clear: the next major global commodity shock may not originate solely from oil. Fertilizers have become a strategic asset underpinning economic stability, agricultural productivity, and national security. For policymakers in Global South nations, ensuring access to agricultural resources is no longer merely an agrarian issue; it has become an integral part of economic resilience in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.
