Fuel price forecasts for August are mixed: gasoline prices are expected to remain at current levels, while diesel fuel prices are likely to increase significantly.
According to data from the Central Energy Fund published at the end of July, a decrease of five cents is predicted for 93 octane gasoline, and the price for 95 octane gasoline will remain unchanged.
However, following a sharp rise in international product prices in July, an increase in diesel fuel prices is anticipated by an amount ranging from 1.75 to 1.91 South African Rand for 50 ppm and 500 ppm diesel, respectively.
This will cause the wholesale price of 500 ppm diesel to reach approximately 25.82 South African Rand on the coast and 26.69 South African Rand in Gauteng, while 50 ppm diesel will cost 26.16 and 26.91 South African Rand, respectively. It should be noted that retail prices will be higher by at least 2–3 South African Rand, as this fuel is unregulated.
Gasoline is likely to maintain its current levels: 95 octane gasoline will cost 25.23 South African Rand on the coast and 26.11 South African Rand in inland regions, and 93 octane gasoline will cost 25.94 South African Rand.
Official fuel price adjustments for August will be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy early this week.
It is important to note that the Levy Slate Levy may still affect final prices; if there is a significant reduction compared to the current 1.14 South African Rand per liter, there could be a more substantial drop in gasoline prices and a milder increase in diesel fuel prices.
This mechanism compensates fuel companies for oil price fluctuations that occurred last month, since not all types of fuel are purchased at the end of the month when fuel prices are determined. Nevertheless, given the recent volatility, a reduction in the Slate Levy in August is not guaranteed.
International oil prices showed significant instability this month, as markets were caught between fears of potential supply disruptions from the Middle East and optimism that diplomatic efforts might prevent a wider crisis.
At the beginning of the month, oil prices were at a three-month low of about $72 per barrel. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East, including exchanges of fire between the US and Iran, sharply raised Brent crude prices as traders priced in the risk of disruptions in oil flows through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Brent eventually exceeded the $100 mark before new hopes for a ceasefire caused prices to fall, and this benchmark price dropped to approximately $88 per barrel this week after falling by more than 8% in one trading session.
