Despite the strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon, which continues to pose a threat of reduced overall monsoon rainfall in India, the latest monthly global seasonal climate report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) brought hope.
This report, published late Friday evening, predicted the probability of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurring. Such a dipole is capable of partially offsetting the negative impact caused by El Niño.
The intensifying El Niño phenomenon, combined with global warming, is causing changes in the pattern of monsoon rainfall in India, leading to more unpredictable weather conditions. These changes jeopardize agricultural production and place a strain on power grids.
This year's monsoon began with the fifth driest June on record, when rainfall was nearly 40% below normal. However, shortly after, there was a sudden heavy downpour that dumped about a month's worth of rain in a week on cities like Mumbai. Since then, the weather system has entered a new period of lull, and as of July 19, the nationwide rainfall was approximately 24% below the average for this time of year.
Raguram Murtugudde, an invited professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur and a professor at the University of Maryland, noted that previously, the distribution of rainy days was more uniform, allowing farmers to plan their sowing calendars. He explained that global warming, combined with El Niño, causes the atmosphere to behave like a sponge: it absorbs a large amount of water and then releases it all in one place.
Since about half of the country's agricultural land still relies on rainfall for irrigation, sharp swings between droughts and heavy rains disrupt the sowing of summer crops, threatening rural incomes and increasing the risk of food price hikes. Simultaneously, sudden pauses in the monsoon lead to urban areas experiencing suffocating humidity, which increases the demand for electricity for cooling.
G.P. Sharma, president of meteorology at the private company Skymet Weather Services, emphasized that the Indian monsoon is a long season with a pulsating effect, but this time it is behaving somewhat abnormally. According to him, the unpredictability is due to steering currents at altitudes of 20,000–25,000 feet above sea level. Rain-bearing systems encounter atmospheric blocking patterns at this height, causing monsoon depressions to either stall or deviate from their course.
Murtugudde added that prolonged breaks in the normal monsoon pattern are exacerbated by the impact of El Niño. This phenomenon forces the air over the subcontinent to sink rather than rise. Even when monsoon winds carry moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the descending motion acts like an atmospheric lid, preventing cloud formation and turning ambient humidity into 'stifling heat.'
In Bangalore, located in southern India, the hottest day of July in 112 years was recorded last week. The Indian Meteorological Department warned that in several regions, daytime temperatures exceed normal by 3–5°C. Murtugudde explained that more breaks mean more heat spells, which is what El Niño does. He compared India to a 'popcorn coffee pot,' which is very difficult to predict. Although the long-term assessment by IMD forecasts an overall seasonal rainfall volume at 94% of the long-term average, private meteorologists believe that the second half of the monsoon could bring a more significant rainfall deficit.
