The World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that the physical volume of global merchandise trade, adjusted for seasonality, increased by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter and by 3.2% relative to the same period last year. In terms of value, world trade grew by 2% quarterly and by 11% year-on-year.
According to estimates from these organizations, the growth rates in the first quarter were particularly high, considering that trade at the beginning of 2025 was artificially inflated due to accelerated imports into North America ahead of expected tariff increases.
The growth in trade of electronic components related to artificial intelligence compensated for the negative consequences of the Middle East conflict. These consequences included disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy prices, which slowed economic growth in net fuel-importing countries. The cost of AI-related goods grew by more than 40% year-on-year.
The WTO's forecast for March, presented in the 'World Trade Outlook and Statistics' report, predicted a 1.9% growth in the volume of global merchandise trade in 2026 under the baseline scenario, which was lower than the actual 3.2% for the first quarter. At the time, the organization's economists assumed that the Middle East conflict could reduce global trade growth by 0.5 percentage points under a high energy price scenario, but ongoing investments in AI could add that same amount.
These assessments were made at the very early stage of the conflict, when information about the scale of shipping disruptions was limited. Given further developments, WTO analysts expect a more significant reduction in trade flows in the Middle East by the end of the year, against a backdrop of stronger growth in Asia and North America. The final impact on world trade will depend on whether the AI boom prevails or the conflict's consequences. An updated forecast will be published in the next report in October.
Regional Trade
The conflict had a noticeable impact on trade turnover in the Middle East: the region's exports and imports decreased by 9.7% and 11.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, respectively, with a more significant decline expected in the second quarter.
The full reflection of the conflict's impact on statistics only appeared towards the end of the first quarter. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed since early March, and statistical data does not yet fully reflect the scale of shipping disruptions, as Gulf countries rarely publish quarterly trade statistics, and regional figures are mainly estimated based on mirror data from partner countries.
According to the WTO Secretariat, the volume of crude oil imports from the Middle East decreased by approximately 45% year-on-year in March, LNG imports fell by 52%, and fertilizer imports declined by 26%. Simultaneously, AI investments stimulated trade volume growth in Asia and to a lesser extent in North America.
Asia's exports and imports, adjusted for seasonality, grew by 12.9% and 14.6% respectively compared to the first quarter of 2025, with quarterly growth reaching 5.5% and 7.2%. Export growth is driven not only by China but also by Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan, largely due to intra-regional trade in AI components.
North American exports increased by 7.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, while the region's imports decreased by 10.7% compared to the first quarter of 2025, when an import surge was recorded ahead of expected tariff hikes. Quarterly import growth was 3.4%. European exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, mainly due to earlier shipments of gold and pharmaceuticals to North America the previous year, while imports rose modestly by 0.6%.
In other regions, export dynamics were moderate or negative quarterly: growth of 0.3% in South America, a decline of 2.5% in Africa, and a drop of 7.4% in CIS countries. Cumulative export growth in South America since early 2023 reached 22.5%, trailing Asia's 33.4%, and regional import growth over the same period was 24.5%, behind Africa's 25.0%. Exports from South America, Africa, and CIS countries are expected to recover in the second quarter as oil producers attempt to compensate for reduced production in the Middle East.
Trade in Value Terms
The most noticeable growth in value terms in the first quarter was recorded in the office and telecommunications equipment category, which grew by 44% year-on-year, followed by ores and other minerals with a growth of 27%, and other machinery by 9%. A decline was noted in chemical products by 6%, iron and steel by 5%, and fuel by 3%.
Fuel prices changed slightly, increasing by 3% year-on-year and 16% quarterly, while prices for metals and minerals, excluding gold and silver, rose by 32%. The main contribution to the growth of the office and telecommunications equipment sector came from sustained demand for AI-related technologies, which showed a growth of 42% in this segment.
Asia demonstrated the largest increase in export value in the first quarter, growing by 20% year-on-year due to shipments of precious metals, gold, copper, machinery, and electrical equipment, as well as ores, although exports of iron and steel, pharmaceuticals, and apparel decreased. Africa ranked second with a 14% growth driven by exports of precious metals, gold, copper, fertilizers, and ores, while cocoa and fuel supplies decreased.
South and Central America also grew by 14% thanks to oilseeds, precious metals, and gold, meat, fuel, ores, coffee, and tea, although exports of fruits, electrical equipment, and automobiles decreased. Declines in exports were recorded only in the Middle East and CIS countries, where both regions fell by 1% due to the predominant presence of fuel in their structure.
On the import side, Asia showed significant annual growth at 22%, and Africa at 15%. In Asia, supplies of precious metals, gold, copper, and machinery grew noticeably, with a slight decrease in iron and steel imports, while in Africa, imports of automobiles, machinery, and vessels increased, and supplies of aircraft and organic chemicals decreased.
North America experienced the largest reduction in imports, falling by 7% mainly due to decreased supplies of precious metals, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and iron and steel products. The value of Middle Eastern imports also decreased by 6% due to a combination of price increases and declines in physical volumes.
Among the five largest exporters globally, all recorded growth in the first quarter: South Korea grew by 38.4%, Hong Kong (China) by 38.3%, the US by 15.2%, China by 14.7%, and the European Union by 9.2%. Among the five largest importers, only the US showed a decline of 13.6%, while imports to other countries grew: Hong Kong (China) by 44.8%, the UK by 28.0%, China by 23.0%, and the European Union by 11.4%.
