IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall in August; warnings issued for heavy rains in Kerala, Assam, and Northeast

According to data from the regional meteorological center of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the active monsoon season continues in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Rainfall of varying intensity is expected in different parts of the region—from light to very heavy rain.

Warnings of heavy rainfall

Meteorologists have issued a warning for heavy or very heavy rainfall for the Lalitpur district. Additionally, a warning for heavy rain has been issued in 12 districts, including Banda, Chitrakoot, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Muradabad, Rampur, Bareli, Pilibhit, Hamirpur, Mahoba, and Jansi. Overall, thunderstorm rain is forecasted in 42 districts of the state.

Recommendations for the public

Due to the expected period of rain, meteorologists advise residents to remain vigilant and avoid unnecessary travel. There is a possibility of flooding in several places, rising water levels in small streams and rivers, and disruption of traffic.

Weather forecast for the day

According to the meteorological service forecasts, most of Western and several districts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh will be under cloud cover. Intermittent rains are expected during the day: light precipitation is possible in some places, while heavy downpours are expected in others. Monsoon processes remain active, which accounts for the variability of the weather. The probability of cloudiness persists from the morning, and rain activity may intensify in the afternoon and evening. Residents of districts with heavy rain warnings should be especially cautious.

Special caution in Lalitpur

The IMD predicts heavy or very heavy rains in the Lalitpur district. Prolonged intense precipitation may lead to the flooding of low-lying areas, and the water level in small streams and temporary watercourses may rise. Residents of these areas are advised to exercise caution. Meteorologists note that continuous rain can affect daily life by causing road inundation, movement difficulties, and reduced visibility.

Districts with heavy rain warnings

The list of 12 districts receiving heavy rain warnings includes Banda, Chitrakoot, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Muradabad, Rampur, Bareli, Pilibhit, Hamirpur, Mahoba, and Jansi. Localized heavy rains are possible in all these districts, which may cause street flooding, water accumulation on roads, and transport problems. Local administrations are also advised to increase vigilance.

Risk of thunderstorms in 42 districts

In addition to rain, there is a risk of thunderstorms and lightning strikes in 42 districts of the state. These districts include Banda, Chitrakoot, Fatehpur, Lakhimpur Kheri, Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Kannauj, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur Nagar, Saharanpur, Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Gotambuddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Hathras, Kasanj, Eta, Agra, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Itawa, Ariya, Bijnor, Amroha, Muradabad, Rampur, Bareli, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Sambal, Badaut, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Jansi, and Lalitpur. Residents of these districts are strongly advised to exercise extra caution and avoid being in open spaces during a thunderstorm.

The monsoon season has always been a vital element for farmers, common people, and the Indian economy. Even in July 2026, a large part of the country shows good monsoon activity, with life noticeably changing in many states due to heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Dry Climate in Northern Regions

However, vast areas, including the capital Delhi, as well as Uttarakhand, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, remain outside this monsoon rain. These regions are experiencing drought conditions, where strong sun prevails during the day and humid heat is felt at night, causing discomfort to the population. This situation is not typical and is explained by the interaction of two major weather systems: the monsoon trough formed in Central India and an active western disturbance on the west.

National Monsoon Situation

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon arrived on time this year. Good rainfall is observed in the south, central, eastern, and western coastal parts. In cities like Mumbai, rains are filling reservoirs, while in the regions of Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, the rains are aiding agricultural activities.

A significant part of North India is deprived of these rains. In Delhi-NCR, significantly less rainfall than normal was recorded by mid-July. This has led not only to persistently high temperatures but also to increased humidity, making people feel uncomfortable around the clock.

Role of the Monsoon Trough

The monsoon trough is a critical weather feature—it is a line of low pressure where moist monsoon air masses converge, rise, and form clouds. This time, this trough is very active in Central India. This has made the outskirts of southern Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha the main center of precipitation.

When the trough is located here, the air masses disperse in North India. Dispersion means that the air spreads out rather than concentrating. When the air disperses, the lifting process weakens, leading to a lack of clouds and rain. This is what is happening in Delhi, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh because the trough is located to the north, allowing dry winds to dominate these areas. A similar situation is observed in the mountainous regions of Uttarakhand, where heavy monsoon rains are usually expected, but a dry atmosphere prevails now. This process is called divergent-induced dry spell and has been ongoing for several days. If the trough does not shift further north, this period may extend.

Influence of Western Disturbance

The second major factor is the western disturbance. These are extra-tropical storms coming from Central Asia, which usually bring rain to Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. However, currently, the disturbance is located in the west, affecting the wind direction in North India. The disturbance causes the arrival of cold and dry winds from the northwest, which suppress the moist monsoon air masses. Because of this, the sky remains clear in Delhi-NCR. Although light clouds may appear, no rain is falling. During the day, intense solar radiation raises the temperature to 35-38 degrees. At night, high humidity, reaching 70-80 percent, creates a feeling of heat. This combination negatively affects people's health, increasing heat stress, fatigue, and respiratory problems. Farmers are also concerned as their dependence on irrigation for rice cultivation increases.

Drought Risks and Economy

The economy of North India heavily relies on agriculture. Wheat, rice, sugarcane, and vegetables are grown in Delhi-NCR, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh. The absence of monsoon rains leads to soil drying, and the risk of groundwater level decline increases. Many farmers are forced to rely on tube wells, which increases electricity consumption. If the drought continues for several more weeks, it could affect crop yields. In a metropolis like Delhi, water availability is already a challenging issue, and the water level in the Yamuna River is low. The lack of rain prevents groundwater replenishment, which could exacerbate water scarcity in the future. Nevertheless, meteorologists express hope that the situation may improve a few days after the trough shifts north, but there are no immediate signs of relief.

Reasons for the Unusual Situation

The monsoon is a complex system that draws moisture from the Indian Ocean and brings rain when encountering the Himalayan range. Sometimes, the combination of the trough's position and disturbances leads to a state resembling a 'monsoon break' in North India. What is happening in 2026 is an example of this. Satellite images and IMD models show that an area of low pressure is active in Central India, attracting southwest winds. Conversely, a zone of high pressure or divergence has formed in the north, causing winds to descend, which hinders cloud formation. Usually, such a situation lasts for a few days, but if it drags on, arid conditions can arise. Such dry spells have also occurred in Delhi in past years while the rest of the country received good rains.

Meteorological Service Forecasts

According to IMD forecasts, the influence of the western disturbance may weaken over the next three to four days, and the trough may shift slightly northward. This could lead to light or moderate rains in Delhi-NCR, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, but heavy rains are not expected yet. Under climate change, monsoon patterns are changing. Scientists are continuously studying these processes to improve forecasting. Currently, residents of Delhi and surrounding areas are facing a dry monsoon, while other parts of the country are abundant with water. The Indian monsoon never distributes water evenly across the entire country. The situation in 2026 is a clear confirmation of this: due to the trough in Central India and the western disturbance, northern regions are suffering from drought, which affects agriculture, water resources, and health. There is hope that the weather will stabilize soon, and Delhi can welcome the drops of the monsoon.