The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Selected Issues report on Uzbekistan, conducted an assessment of the financial condition of state-owned enterprises and the associated risks to the state budget.
Financial Performance of State Enterprises
According to data from the State Assets Management Agency, cited by the IMF, out of a total of 2,148 state enterprises in 2024, only 982 were profitable, accounting for 46%. The remaining enterprises either showed losses, were inactive, were undergoing liquidation procedures, or did not provide data on their profitability.
Sectoral Profit Structure
The mining sector demonstrated the highest profit as a percentage of GDP. This was followed by the oil and gas sector, as well as the banking and finance sectors. The most problematic areas were electricity, housing and communal services, and water management. The IMF links the unprofitability in these sectors to the fact that enterprises provide services to the population for which they receive only partial or no compensation.
Dividend Dependence and Asset Valuation
The structure of dividend revenues to the budget also indicates a high dependence on the mining industry. The Fund noted that about 80% of state enterprise dividends in 2024 came specifically from the mining sector, while the oil and gas sector contributed 9.5%, and other profitable industries contributed 10.5%.
The IMF concluded that the state, acting as a shareholder, receives low returns from a significant portion of its investment portfolio. Furthermore, the fund conducted a special audit of the financial condition of 21 largest non-financial state companies that have audited IFRS reports. The aggregate value of assets of these companies was estimated at approximately 48% of GDP.
Risks and Improvements in Companies
The analysis included assessments of solvency, liquidity, and profitability. Between 2021 and 2023, four out of 21 companies consistently remained in the moderate risk zone, primarily belonging to the mining sector. Seven companies had a higher level of risk, including enterprises in the electricity, gas, and chemical industries. Another ten companies were in the 'grey zone' of moderate risk, mainly due to weak debt burden and liquidity.
As of 2024, indicators for 16 out of 21 companies showed improvement compared to the previous year. The IMF attributes this mainly to the 'significant increase in regulated tariffs for electricity and gas,' which occurred in May 2024 and positively affected three companies in the energy and gas sectors.
Overall Dynamics and State Support
Overall, there has been a 'moderate improvement' in risk indicators over the period from 2021 to 2024. Of the fifteen companies for which data is available for the entire period, six improved their performance, and three worsened. Six of the companies that improved operated in the electricity and gas supply sectors.
State enterprises receive support in various forms: this can include budgetary subsidies, external loans, redirected loans from the Reconstruction and Development Fund, internal banking system credits, and state guarantees. The World Bank also indicated that support is provided through non-financial methods, such as exemptions from laws aimed at stimulating market discipline, or preferential access to land and public procurement.
Governance and Regulatory Challenges
The Fund acknowledges that the share of such support as a percentage of GDP is gradually decreasing due to stricter conditions for its provision. Nevertheless, the IMF believes that 'soft budgetary constraints' continue to weaken the motivation of state enterprise management to improve efficiency and restructure. The regulatory framework lacks a clear separation between commercial activities and the fulfillment of socially significant obligations, which leads to a blurring of responsibility for final results.
Moreover, the absence of a requirement for state enterprises to ensure profitability comparable to the market contributes to the persistence of inefficiency. Existing legal exemptions grant these enterprises unjustified advantages. The IMF insists that obligations must be defined, calculated, and fully compensated from the budget. State aid, if necessary for reforms, must be based on convincing restructuring plans, tied to reform outcomes, and gradually phased out.
Corporate Governance and Transparency
The blurring of accountability and responsibility occurs due to the overlap of ownership functions among local authorities, sectoral ministries, and the State Assets Management Agency. The IMF also noted that strict criteria for justifying state participation in the economy, established by the Law 'On State Property Management,' have not been implemented. In corporate governance, supervisory boards suffer from a lack of autonomy due to a limited number of qualified independent members, and their powers are often restricted. The application of corporate governance principles to state enterprises is uneven.
Regarding transparency, the AUMA register of state enterprises has an inconsistent structure and does not contain a clear definition of what constitutes a state enterprise. There is also a lack of centralized control over privatization programs. These two factors hinder adequate monitoring and evaluation of the privatization process. Achieving the goal of having audited financial statements under IFRS for all state enterprises remains an unfinished task.
Competitive Sectors and Privatization
The IMF also pointed out that about 84% of enterprises with state participation in Uzbekistan operate in competitive sectors where justifying the state's presence is difficult. Such sectors include agriculture, tourism, pharmaceuticals, services, and markets. By the end of 2024, the assets of state enterprises exceeded the country's GDP, reaching 101% of GDP. According to Fitch Ratings, between 2021 and 2025, state assets worth about $5.1 billion were privatized in Uzbekistan, after which the agency upgraded its outlook from 'stable' to 'positive'. Preliminary calculations by Fitch Ratings show that only in 2025 will the volume of privatization reach $1.6 billion.