According to a report by Crisil Intelligence, the export of finished steel from India is expected to decline by 25–30 percent in the 2027 fiscal year. This is because stricter protective measures by the European Union (EU) are reducing India's duty-free access to its largest foreign market.
Impact on Exports and Market
The fall in exports could lead India to lose its status as a net exporter of finished steel in the current fiscal year. In the previous fiscal year, the country exported about 6.6 million tonnes of finished steel. The EU was India's main export destination, including markets such as Italy, Belgium, Spain, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates.
New EU Protection Regime
The expected decline followed the revised EU steel protection regime, which came into force on July 1. Under the new system, the bloc significantly reduced volume-based import quotas and tightened market access conditions for exporters. Although India's overall quota was substantially reduced, the report notes that the introduction of new quota categories linked to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) may partially offset the negative impact.
Quota and Competition Details
According to Crisil, India's total product-specific quota has decreased by approximately 30 percent—from about 2.8 million tonnes under the old system to nearly 1.9 million tonnes under the revised regime. Nevertheless, Indian exporters can claim about 1.2 million tonnes under the newly created pool of quotas for FTA countries (FTA-CSQ) and another 0.4 million tonnes in the FTA-others category, totaling an export possibility of about 3.5 million tonnes. These additional quota pools are competitive and do not guarantee allocation to India.
Impact on Domestic Market
Despite these new channels, the low quota allocation and high competition in global markets, especially against the backdrop of weak steel pricing outside the EU, are expected to put pressure on India's exports this fiscal year. As export revenue comes under pressure, domestic steel producers are likely to focus more on the domestic market.
Significance of the EU Market
Europe remains a strategically important market for Indian steel exporters. In the calendar year 2025, the EU imported about 29.7 million tonnes of steel, of which approximately 2.4 million tonnes came from India, accounting for an 8 percent share. Nearly 40 percent of all of India's finished steel exports during this year were directed to the EU, making this region one of the most significant foreign markets.
Tightening of EU Measures
The report highlighted that the EU has strengthened its protective measures amid a global surplus of steel supply and increasing import penetration. Since July 1, the bloc has cut annual duty-free import quotas by 47 percent to 18.3 million tonnes and doubled the tariff outside the quota from 25 percent to 50 percent.
Product Differences and Forecasts
The impact of the revised regime is expected to vary depending on the product category. The largest quota reduction—69 percent—applies to cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and strips, followed by cold-rolled non-alloyed and other alloyed steels, which will face a 59 percent reduction. Crisil warns that the weakening of exports to Europe could increase the availability of steel in the domestic market, putting pressure on prices and profitability. A similar trend was noted in the 2023 fiscal year, when exports sharply fell after the introduction of export duties and weakening global demand, leading to a decrease in average prices for hot-rolled coils domestically. Although domestic steel prices are expected to remain under pressure amid moderate demand growth, India's existing import duty on steel should continue to provide some support, according to the report.



