International efforts to combat HIV have led to the lowest levels of new infections and AIDS-related deaths in over three decades. However, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has warned that significant funding reductions jeopardize the achievements made.
Statistics and Warning Signs
In a special report released ahead of the 26th International AIDS Conference in Rio de Janeiro, UNAIDS reported that in 2025, 1.2 million people contracted HIV, and 570,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses. Although these figures are the lowest in over thirty years, the agency noted the growing fragility of the global response to the HIV problem.
Threats to 2030 Goals
According to UNAIDS, reduced international funding, decreased HIV prevention programs, and cut services provided by communities threaten the goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Executive Director Winnie Byanyama stated that the world is at a critical crossroads.
She emphasized that scientific breakthroughs have provided tools that previous generations could only dream of. Nevertheless, innovations without access are not innovations; they represent an injustice. In her words, the criterion for success is not the existence of medicines, but the ability of people who need them to obtain them at an affordable price.
Uneven Progress and New Advances
Despite the encouraging decline in infections and deaths, progress remains uneven. During 2025, new HIV cases increased in three regions and 21 countries. Furthermore, about nine million out of approximately 41 million people living with HIV were not receiving treatment. Nearly half of children living with HIV also lacked access to vital antiretroviral therapy.
The report points to promising successes in HIV prevention, including long-acting injectable drugs such as lenacapavir, which provides protection approaching vaccine levels. South Africa is among the countries negotiating more affordable pricing for this injection, although global access remains limited.
UNAIDS estimates that about 20 million people need access to antiretroviral-based prevention if the world wants to significantly reduce new infections. However, projections suggest that only a small fraction of this number will benefit from current implementation plans.
Financial Crisis and Its Consequences
One of the most serious threats to future progress is the sharp decline in international development aid. Global development assistance fell by 23% in 2025, the steepest drop ever recorded, with HIV programs being particularly hard hit. International HIV funding decreased by more than $1.5 billion: from $8.8 billion in 2024 to $7.3 billion in 2025, representing an 18% reduction and the lowest level in nearly two decades.
The consequences are already being felt, especially in sub-Saharan African countries, where historically about 80% of HIV prevention programs relied on international funding. UNAIDS also reported that in some countries, condom funding was cut by more than 90%, and surveys in 47 countries revealed a significant decrease in community-provided services, including prevention programs, support for vulnerable groups, and services for victims of gender-based violence.
Call to Action
Winnie Byanyama stated that 'the era of reliance on international aid is over.' She added that countries cannot wait and cannot go backward. The world must urgently fix the broken financial system and accelerate debt restructuring so that governments can invest in what is most important—health, education, and the future of their populations.
Despite the difficulties, UNAIDS believes that the goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 remains achievable, provided there is a restoration of government investment, expanded access to new preventive medicines, and respect for human rights. The agency warned that without immediate action, more than three million additional people could contract HIV by 2030, potentially negating years of progress.
