Tech giants Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta face the week of financial results disclosure under intense market pressure. This comes after Alphabet, the owner of Google, announced an increase in its investments in infrastructure dedicated to artificial intelligence (AI), which resulted in a sharp decline in its shares and raised investor doubts about the return on these billion-dollar expenditures.
Market Reaction and Investments
On Wednesday (22), during the second-quarter earnings presentation, Alphabet communicated an increase in its capital expenditure (capex) projection for 2026, aiming to accelerate the construction of new data centers focused on AI. The market response was immediate: Alphabet's shares plummeted by 7% on Thursday (23), and stocks for Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta also suffered declines, reflecting growing investor skepticism regarding high infrastructure investments that are depleting companies' cash reserves without guaranteed short-term profit.
The three companies await the publication of their financial statements this week. Microsoft and Meta will present their results after market close on Wednesday (29), while Amazon will release its figures on Thursday (30).
Shift in Investment Perception
In previous quarters, Wall Street interpreted the increase in infrastructure contributions as a positive indicator of high demand for AI and future revenue growth. Alphabet was seen as favored by investors due to its ability to convert large investments into increased revenue. Its shares had appreciated by about 70% over the last twelve months, driven by cloud computing expansion and the adoption of Gemini models in a competitive market with OpenAI and Anthropic.
However, the negative reaction to the latest earnings suggests that the market now demands more concrete proof of financial return before accepting further increases in spending. Mark Mahaney, head of internet research at Evercore ISI, noted in a report released on Wednesday that Alphabet's capex increase 'increases the chances of similar behavior' from Amazon and Microsoft.
Potential Pressures on Microsoft and Amazon
In April, Microsoft had projected about US$ 190 billion (R$ 975.6 billion) in capital investments and financial lease contracts for the current year, including approximately US$ 25 billion (R$ 128.4 billion) related to price increases of components driven by high demand for AI chips. Derrick Wood, an analyst at Cowen, warned that if the company increases these investments again, the market may react negatively. Wood stated in an interview with CNBC that 'if they increase capex again, based on what we saw in the reaction to Google last week, it will likely lead to selling pressure on shares.'
Analysts consulted by Visible Alpha estimate that Microsoft's investments are around US$ 190.1 billion (R$ 976.1 billion).
Following Alphabet's earnings, the consensus estimate for Amazon's investments rose by almost US$ 2 billion (R$ 10.3 billion), reaching US$ 207.4 billion (R$ 1.06 trillion), according to Visible Alpha data. In February, the company planned to invest about US$ 200 billion (R$ 1.02 trillion) in 2026, the largest budget among tech giants until Alphabet raised its forecast limit to US$ 205 billion (R$ 1.05 billion). Although Amazon maintained this estimate in its April earnings release, CEO Andy Jassy informed investors that the plan remained virtually unchanged. Despite this, several analysts predicted a new increase, driven by the expansion of AI projects, development of proprietary chips, memory price increases, and the advancement of the company's satellite internet initiative.
Signs of AI Fatigue
Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, whose largest position is in Amazon, commented that the company may have difficulty pleasing investors in the current scenario. He pointed out that the market is experiencing an environment of 'growing fatigue with artificial intelligence,' marked by questioning accelerated increases in AI budgets and the rising debt of the 'Magnificent Seven' to finance vast data centers.
These figures confirm this trend: Amazon's long-term debt grew by 81%, reaching US$ 119 billion (R$ 611 billion) between December 31 and March 31. Alphabet's debt jumped 111% in the first six months of 2026, totaling US$ 98 billion (R$ 503.2 billion). Additionally, the company recorded negative free cash flow in the second quarter for the first time, despite traditionally being a robust cash generator.
Optimistic View from Some Analysts
Despite investor apprehension, Wedbush analysts believe that the increase in investments reflects extremely strong demand for cloud computing services, which is still limited by existing capacity. For this institution, a possible increase in Amazon's capex would not be inherently negative. The analysts argued that the extra cost is justified given the recovery of Amazon Web Services (AWS) and the company's competitive advantages in platforms like Bedrock, Alexa, and its logistics network, maintaining a buy recommendation for the stock.
Cloud Market Overview
Although Google Cloud is growing at a faster pace, Amazon Web Services remains the largest global provider of cloud infrastructure, followed by Microsoft. In 2020, Google Cloud represented about 30% of AWS volume, but in the first quarter of 2026, this share approached 50%. Alphabet's cloud division registered 82% growth in the second quarter, the highest since at least 2020, after growing 63% in the previous quarter.
For AWS, FactSet analysts predict revenue growth close to 32% in the second quarter, surpassing the 28% recorded in the first three months of the year. Concurrently, Microsoft's Azure platform revenue and other cloud services grew by 40% in the first quarter, and the FactSet consensus points to a 39% expansion in the second quarter. Even with Alphabet's strong performance, Mark Mahaney emphasized that the demand for cloud services remains 'relentless,' but considers it unlikely that competitors can match Google's growth rate in the period.
Meta's Investments and Strategy
Meta is the only one among the large group companies that does not yet have an established cloud computing business. Nevertheless, the company is expected to invest about US$ 138.9 billion (R$ 713.2 billion) this year, potentially reaching US$ 145 billion (R$ 744.6 billion), as reported in April. Furthermore, Meta has begun studies to seek new revenue sources through the sale of computational capacity to third parties, currently maintaining strong cash generation.
The situations are different for Microsoft and Amazon. According to FactSet analysts, Microsoft may record negative free cash flow in the fourth quarter for the first time since at least 2001. Amazon has already entered the red in this indicator in the first quarter, and it is expected to persist throughout the year. This last occurred in 2021 and 2022, when the company doubled its logistics capacity to meet pandemic-driven demand.
Despite short-term concerns, some investors remain optimistic. Tiffany Wade, a fund manager at Columbia Threadneedle, who held positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft at the end of June, stated: 'I think patience is needed with these companies because I believe they will be winners in artificial intelligence in the medium and long term.' During Alphabet's earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai defended the company's strategy of leasing computational capacity from external suppliers to meet the growing demand for cloud services. He justified that this approach should generate attractive margins in the coming years, despite increased costs, concluding: 'I think this is probably the right decision.'


