Australia studies building its first oil refinery in six decades

As the global order disintegrates due to aggressive unilateralism and systemic protectionism, old economic models are rapidly disappearing. African and European countries find themselves in a vulnerable geopolitical position, caught between Washington's trade barriers and Beijing's industrial overcapacity.

Strategic Cooperation Between Continents

Despite maintaining indispensable economic ties with the US and China, the changing landscape offers Pretoria and African capitals an opportunity to deepen cooperation with France and Europe, transforming shared challenges into mutual resilience. This dynamic was evident during President Cyril Ramaphosa's official visit to Paris.

During bilateral meetings, the focus was primarily on commercial aspects, resulting in French companies pledging to invest 20.7 billion Rand (1.11 billion euros). Furthermore, crucial negotiations on transport infrastructure and civil nuclear energy were discussed.

Reaction of International Organizations

This pragmatic approach aligns with the broader institutional framework presented at the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi. The Director-General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, speaking before the World Economic Forum in Davos, called on the continent to focus on decentralization and trade diversification, noting that the US accounts for only 6% of African exports and 4% of imports.

This shift towards mutual interaction is driven by geopolitical changes. Traditional development aid models are being replaced by a highly competitive environment where African states possess unprecedented diplomatic influence. Consequently, the strategies of France and Europe are shifting from asymmetric donor models to joint equity investments and more balanced risk distribution structures.

Initiatives at the Nairobi Summit

A common position became the strategic core of the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, which was held jointly with William Ruto of Kenya and French President Emmanuel Macron. At this event, African and French participants presented frameworks based solely on infrastructure, finance, and technology. To remain competitive, they launched a package worth 23 billion euros ($26.7 billion USD) related to energy, connectivity, and artificial intelligence.

However, the real test of this large figure depends on the actual implementation of promised first-loss guarantees. For South Africa's financial and banking sectors, these risk mitigation mechanisms are key indicators; without them, continental declarations lack operational depth.

South Africa's Position and Multilateralism

The strategic attractiveness voiced by Canadian Prime Minister Carney earlier this year, calling for 'middle powers' to stabilize the fractured international order, is an oversimplification of global reality. Grouping established Western nations and Global South leaders into one category ignores their fundamentally different economic priorities and political histories.

South Africa, along with Brazil and Indonesia, holds a unique geopolitical position that cannot be captured by simple labels. These states are vital continental anchors with clear strategic goals, demonstrating a distinct form of influence often overlooked by Western analysts. This influence includes regulating critical mineral supply chains, the ability to set agendas through consistent G20 presidencies, and the potential for independent diplomatic action outside traditional Western alliances.

For Pretoria, strategic autonomy means maintaining all global systems simultaneously, avoiding a false choice of sides. While maintaining core commitments within BRICS, South Africa has parallelly integrated France into the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) project, formalized technological cooperation in artificial intelligence, and resumed the long-planned Defence Strategy Dialogue scheduled for October. Future cooperation between Europe and South Africa must focus on these areas of substantive, transactional convergence.

Market Integration Through Multilateralism

The main shield against global trade turbulence remains the structural integration of the African continent. The leadership of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) consistently advocates for the world trade system, describing robust, rules-based multilateral structures as the best mechanism for protecting the interests of developing countries in an era of superpower unilateralism.

However, this protection cannot be guaranteed by political documents alone. Arming the continent against global instability requires the rapid physical and financial realization of a unified AfCFTA market. This is where the operational intersection of European capital and African financial institutions must occur. Mobilizing the vast investments needed to create logistical, transport, and energy corridors that make continental trade viable depends on deep coordination with pan-African development institutions and multilateral creditors capable of assuming complex cross-border risks.

According to data on the efficiency of the banking sector, the total assets of commercial banks in Uzbekistan reached 1,005.8 trillion soums as of July 1, 2026. This figure demonstrates an 18% growth compared to 852.2 trillion soums recorded on the same day in 2025.

Dynamics of Financial Indicators

During the reporting period, the banks' loan portfolio increased by 12%, amounting to 642.8 trillion soums. Deposits showed a more significant growth—33%, reaching 473.8 trillion soums, while total capital grew by 19% to 148.9 trillion soums.

The asset structure underwent changes: the share of foreign currency in total assets decreased from 40% to 35%, and in loans—from 42% to 39%, and in deposits—from 24% to 19%. The increase in the share of figures denominated in soums relative to foreign currency data indicates the activation of operations in the national currency.

Market Structure and State Banks

State banks maintain a dominant position in the financial system, controlling 62% of assets, 66% of loans, 58% of capital, and 52% of deposits. The National Bank of Uzbekistan (NBU) remains the country's largest bank with assets of 146.5 trillion soums, accounting for 15% of the market. It is followed by Agrobank with 118.4 trillion soums (12%) and Uzpromstroybank with 108.5 trillion soums (11%).

Among the other banks, Asaka Bank leads in assets with 62.5 trillion soums, followed by Xalq Bank (57.8 trillion soums), Business Development Bank (41.2 trillion soums), Aloqabank (36.7 trillion soums), Microcreditbank (34.4 trillion soums), and Turon Bank (22 trillion soums). Among non-state-owned banks, Kapitalbank leads with assets of 62.7 trillion soums, followed by Ipoteka-bank with 56.7 trillion soums.

Kapitalbank ranks third in terms of deposit volume in the country, having collected 47.3 trillion soums, trailing only NBU and Agrobank. Octobank, with relatively modest assets of 16.5 trillion soums, holds deposits of 14.8 trillion soums, which almost covers its entire balance and indicates a deposit-oriented business model.

Lending by Economic Sectors

Retail clients remain the segment with the largest volume of borrowers. Lending to individuals grew by 20%, increasing from 196.9 trillion to 235.9 trillion soums, raising their share in the total loan portfolio from 34% to 37%, making it the largest borrower category. Industrial lending decreased by 13%, falling from 157.6 trillion to 137.6 trillion soums, and the industry's share dropped from 27% to 21%. Industry became the only major sector to record an absolute decrease, alongside housing construction and utilities, which fell by 8% to 1.9 trillion soums.

Lending in trade and public services increased by 23%, reaching 49.3 trillion soums. Construction showed a growth of 37%, amounting to 20.9 trillion soums, while agriculture grew by 14% to 66.3 trillion soums. The 'other sectors' category increased by 36%, reaching 92.4 trillion soums. Lending to transport and communications remained virtually unchanged, showing only a 1% growth to 33.9 trillion soums.

Distribution of Loans and Deposits by Banks

Of the total loan portfolio of 642.8 trillion soums as of July 1, 2026, retail loans accounted for 235.9 trillion soums (37%), while corporate loans made up 406.9 trillion soums (63%). Ipoteka-bank became the largest lender to retail clients, issuing individual loans totaling 29.5 trillion soums, and Xalq Bank took second place with 25.5 trillion soums. NBU continues to be the largest corporate lender, providing 83.6 trillion soums in loans to legal entities.

Regarding deposits, Kapitalbank leads in retail deposits with an amount of 28.1 trillion soums, higher than any other bank in the country, including the largest state institutions. NBU is the largest holder of corporate deposits, accumulating 39.4 trillion soums.

According to data from the National Agency for Advanced Projects, the volume of issued shares in Uzbekistan amounted to 269.4 trillion soums in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, the volume of issued bonds reached 7.04 trillion soums.

Total Volume of Securities

The total volume of securities in circulation reached 276.4 trillion soums, with 2449 securities currently in circulation. During the period from January to June, a volume of securities amounting to 4.3 trillion soums was canceled.

Dominance of Stocks in the Market

As a result, stocks accounted for the majority of all issued securities by the end of the first half of the year. Their volume exceeded the volume of issued bonds by 38.3 times. This calculation is based on NAPP data: 269.4 trillion soums divided by 7.04 trillion soums approximately equals 38.3.