The government of Uzbekistan has assessed the potential impact of tensions in the Middle East on the country's economy, according to the Fiscal Strategy for the period 2027–2029. Geopolitical conflicts, volatility in commodity markets, and global inflationary pressure were identified as the main threats to macroeconomic and fiscal stability in the short and medium term.
Trade Ties with the Region
Estimates show that Uzbekistan's direct trade dependence on this region remains relatively low. In 2025, the total trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Israel, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, amounted to 2.1 billion US dollars, equivalent to 2.6% of the country's total foreign trade volume.
Exports to these states reached 933 million US dollars (2.8% of total exports). The UAE (720 million US dollars), Iran (156 million US dollars), and Israel (32.9 million US dollars) accounted for the largest share of exports. Key goods supplied to the region included services, textiles, food products, petroleum products, and metals. Imports from these countries totaled 1.2 billion US dollars, representing 2.4% of total imports.
Impact of Global Processes
The document emphasizes that conflicts in the Middle East are already leading to disruptions in global supply chains and rising world prices for oil, mineral fertilizers, and food. These processes could negatively affect the Uzbek economy through increased complexity in foreign trade and logistics, higher import costs, and a slowdown in the global economy.
Risk Assessment Mechanisms
To quantitatively assess these threats, the strategy calculated an alternative scenario alongside the baseline scenario, which accounts for possible intensification of external and internal shocks. Monitoring of macroeconomic risks, state contingent liabilities, and public-private partnership (PPP) obligations will be conducted continuously, and countermeasures will be developed and published based on the analytical results obtained.