The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published a map demonstrating the vulnerability of various regions to risks associated with earthquakes, water scarcity, floods, landslides, and abnormally high temperatures. This assessment is presented in the Central Bank's financial stability review for 2025.
Within this review, the regulator considers climate change as a factor generating both physical and transition risks for the financial system and the economy. Physical risks include losses caused by natural disasters, water shortages, and extreme weather events. Transition risks are driven by changes in legislation, technology, and government policy during the shift towards a low-carbon economy. Such transformations can affect the value of companies' assets and liabilities, as well as their ability to meet debt obligations.
The map presented by the Central Bank covers six types of threats: earthquakes, water scarcity, river and urban floods, landslides, and extreme heat. Regions were classified into three risk levels: low, medium, and high. When determining the risk for each region, the Central Bank took into account the highest level of threat identified among all its constituent districts. Data for assessing natural hazards were obtained using the ThinkHazard service.
The highest seismic vulnerability was recorded in Andijan, Jizzakh, Namangan, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Tashkent, Fergana, and Kashkadarya regions, as well as in Tashkent itself. In the rest of the country, the earthquake risk is assessed as medium. Water shortage is the main problem in the western regions. This risk is exacerbated in Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Navoi, and Bukhara regions due to the combination of low precipitation, arid climate, and soil salinization.
According to the review data, the amount of precipitation in the western part of the country is approximately ten times lower than in the southeastern regions. In Khorezm and Karakalpakstan regions, the share of land suffering from moderate and severe salinization is 41% and 40%, respectively. A significant volume of water is required to flush these lands. Since precipitation is limited, irrigation is critical for agriculture, which consumes almost 90% of available water resources. In 2024, this sector accounted for 18% of nominal GDP and supported employment at 23% of the total workforce.
The risk of flooding by rivers remains across most of the country's territory, especially near large bodies of water and river sources. A medium risk level for urban flooding was noted in Khorezm, Jizzakh, and Andijan regions, while the risk is low in Tashkent and Syrdarya regions, and high in other regions. The increase in the area covered by asphalt and concrete surfaces, which prevents water from penetrating the ground, contributes to water accumulation and increases the probability of flooding in lowlands.
The Central Bank emphasizes that population growth and industrial development increase the demand for surface and groundwater, while climate change reduces their availability. Forecasts indicate that by 2050, the flow of the Amu Darya may decrease by 5%, and the Syr Darya by 15%. It is expected that the annual water deficit in Uzbekistan will reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030 and rise to 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. The increase in average temperature also exacerbates the situation by intensifying evaporation and increasing water demand.
Agriculture remains the most vulnerable sector, consuming 92% of the total freshwater volume. During 2025, the share of loans issued to agricultural enterprises increased from 9.1% to 10.1% of the total banking loan portfolio. The regulator believes that the high dependence of the agricultural sector on water resources makes it extremely sensitive to climate shifts. Financial losses incurred by enterprises due to drought, water shortages, heat, or measures to transition to a low-carbon economy can lead to an increased probability of loan defaults and higher bank losses.
The high risk of landslides in Uzbekistan is concentrated in mountainous areas. About 90 thousand square kilometers of the country's territory are covered by mountains, and 17% of this mountainous area is subject to landslide risk. Approximately 65–70% of landslides occur due to snowmelt, precipitation, and groundwater influence; 20–25% as a result of earthquakes, and another 15–20% due to anthropogenic factors.
Regions with a high risk of landslides include Tashkent, Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Fergana, Namangan, and Andijan regions. This is due to the presence of steep terrain, intense precipitation, and seismic activity. Navoi region has a medium risk due to a relatively smaller area of mountainous territory. In the flat and desert areas—Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Bukhara, and Syrdarya regions, as well as in Tashkent—the landslide risk is assessed as low due to the flat landscape and absence of major mountain ranges.
The review also highlights the growing risks associated with extreme heat. Uzbekistan, possessing an arid climate, is already facing rising temperatures, and as warming continues, climate pressure is expected to intensify. Although high temperatures are characteristic of most regions, almost all of them are categorized as medium risk; only Surkhandarya region has a high risk level because the surrounding mountains impede the free movement of air masses, contributing to the persistence of high temperatures.
The average temperature in the country has risen by 2.9 degrees Celsius between 1950 and 2020. According to forecasts, this figure could increase by another 1.21–1.94 degrees by the end of the current century. Rising temperatures lead to increased demand for electricity, especially during periods of active use of air conditioning systems. Despite the medium overall risk level, rising temperatures can cause several problems: according to the Central Bank's estimates, a one-degree rise in temperature can increase electricity consumption by 0.5–8.5%. On the hottest days, labor productivity in the construction industry can decrease by 20–30%. The Central Bank concludes that accounting for the vulnerability of regions and industries when assessing the resilience of the financial system is necessary, as the realization of climate risks can negatively affect the financial position of borrowers, reduce collateral value, and increase bank credit losses.
Meteorologists have issued an emergency warning regarding a new intensification of heat in Uzbekistan. According to Uzhydromet forecasts, between July 18 and 20, air temperatures in various regions of the country may approach the mark of 48 degrees.
In most regions of the republic, temperatures are expected to rise to 43–45 degrees. However, in the southern and desert areas, temperatures may reach 46–48 degrees in places. Additionally, increased wind activity up to 13–18 m/s is forecast across the entire country, with possible gusts up to 20–22 m/s.
Dust storms and dust devils may occur in some areas. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, the population is strongly urged to minimize time spent under direct sunlight, strictly monitor water balance, and pay special attention to children, the elderly, and citizens with chronic diseases.
