President Donald Trump's trade war has resumed after a period of relative calm that followed the Supreme Court's decision in February, which overturned the administration's large-scale tariffs on global trading partners. The administration has once again begun to apply measures of pressure.
New import duties have come into force
Duties ranging from 10 to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 partner countries came into effect on Friday. Since these new rates largely repeat the tariffs previously imposed by Trump, they are unlikely to lead to a significant increase in prices for US consumers.
However, based on Trump's past experience and recent statements, this is likely not the end. Since returning to office, Trump has consistently expanded his tariff agenda. What started with general duties on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China subsequently spread to automobiles, steel, and copper, culminating in comprehensive 'reciprocal' tariffs aimed at almost all of the US's trading partners.
Legal grounds and new threats
Even the Supreme Court's decision, which deemed these tariffs illegal, has not diminished his desire to use tariffs; on the contrary, it may have strengthened his resolve. The latest tariffs are only part of broader efforts to restore America's trade agenda. The administration is conducting new investigations and implementing a trade strategy that could go far beyond existing duties. This could transform global supply chains, affect prices for businesses and consumers, and redefine America's relationships with its trading partners.
In recent months, officials have restored most of the tariff regime that existed before the court ruling, now using authorities that trade legal experts consider more reliably grounded legally. The tariffs that took effect on Friday are one such example. They are based on a months-long investigation into forced labor allegations and mainly reinstate duties that disappeared after the court's decision.
Earlier this week, tariffs on certain goods from Brazil also came into force, imposed under a different legal basis after the administration determined that Brazil's policies had harmed American trade. These laws have historically proven more resilient in court, although this does not guarantee their survival in the current dispute.
Reaction from advocacy groups
Liberty Justice, a non-profit libertarian advocacy firm that successfully won the tariff case in the Supreme Court, promptly filed a lawsuit on Friday, claiming that the new duties are also illegal. Jeffrey Schwab, Senior Counsel and Director of Litigation at the Liberty Justice Center, stated in his filing: 'This is the third time the administration is trying to impose its global tariff policy without adhering to established legal limits. Section 301 is a targeted, country-specific, and practical remedy. It is not an independent authorization to tax virtually all imports from virtually all countries at predetermined rates.'
Regardless of legality, the use of Section 301 does not provide the speed or flexibility of emergency powers. Therefore, trade experts are closely watching another piece of legislation recently adopted by the administration—Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, a provision never before used to impose tariffs.
Application of Section 338 and EU threats
Earlier this week, Trump invoked Section 338 to threaten 50 percent tariffs on certain goods from Canada, alleging that Canada discriminated against American trade. However, administration officials also acknowledged that this move was linked to Canada's retaliatory measures against previous US tariffs. This dynamic highlights how Trump continues to view tariffs as a tool of pressure in both trade disputes and broader negotiations.
Unlike the tariffs imposed on Friday, it appears there is no 'waiting period' for duties imposed under this law to take effect. Kyle Picock, Chief Analyst at Peacock Tariff Consulting, noted: 'Some of our clients are extremely concerned that this is the first step toward larger volumes of tariffs.' Many of his Canadian clients are working around the clock to ship products to the US before the duties take effect next month.
Furthermore, in a post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump announced that the administration would initiate a Section 301 investigation into the European Union due to what he called 'discriminatory' treatment of major American technology companies, including Google, Apple, Meta, and Amazon. Section 301 refers to the Trade Act of 1974—the same mechanism used to impose the new tariffs on Friday. Essentially, it is a path to raising rates.
There are also several other pending investigations, including an examination of production 'excess capacity,' which focuses on America's 16 largest trading partners. Any tariffs resulting from these investigations could be layered on top of other duties. Olu Sonola, Head of U.S. Economics at Fitch Ratings, commented in a note on Thursday: 'If they are broad enough to bring tariff rates back to 2025 levels, uncertainty will sharply increase, and the blow to growth and inflation will become much harder to ignore, especially if energy prices remain high for longer.'
The administration may have political reasons to avoid another major tariff escalation until November. But if Trump's second term set one pattern, it is that tariff battles can quickly intensify and change direction.
