Central banks worldwide, from Washington to London and Tokyo, are preparing to reveal the extent of their concern over oil prices returning to around $100 per barrel. A series of rate decisions within the G7, starting with the US Federal Reserve, followed by decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, may demonstrate varying degrees of vigilance against potential energy-driven inflation, even if its impact is not yet forecasted.
In addition to signals from the European Central Bank about its readiness to raise interest rates again, investor forecasts point to possible changes in most countries of this club as early as September, although economists are less certain about this. A short-term spike in crude oil prices above the $100 mark, which it surpassed two months ago, is just one of the potential inflationary risks for decision-makers.
Investors are also focused on the consequences of massive investments in artificial intelligence, as well as President Donald Trump's attempt to restore a tariff wall after setbacks in the Supreme Court. Anxiety is observed among investors in global bond markets as yields have risen across the G7. On Friday, the yield on 30-year US bonds was slightly below its highest level since 2007.
The Fed's rate decision scheduled for July 29 is approaching with more tension than many expected, after June US consumer price data came in significantly below expectations. However, this situation has been overshadowed by renewed hostility in the Middle East. The rise in oil prices has intensified expectations of disagreement from some officials—possibly Dallas Fed President Lori Logan and Cleveland Beth Hammack, who advocate for an immediate rate hike. There is also active discussion about whether new Chair Kevin Warsh can surprise investors with a rate increase.
According to Bloomberg Economics, a 'hawkish pause' is anticipated. It is expected that Warsh will emphasize that inflation remains too high and maintain the possibility of a rate hike in September, but soft CPI data should prevent any action this month. On Thursday, after the decision, investors and policymakers will receive updated information on the state of economic activity, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, and consumer spending.
Government data is projected to show GDP growth at a rate of 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, driven by consumers and business investment. A separate report is expected to show a slowdown in the key inflation indicator in June amid falling gasoline prices, which have since risen again.
The Asia-Pacific region also anticipates a busy week with several important monetary policy decisions and trade reports. The first will be the Central Bank of Singapore's rate decision, which will test the slope of its currency corridor—a tool of its policy. The Central Bank of Pakistan will also announce its policy rate.
Friday morning will bring a stream of data from Japan, including industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures for June, as well as July inflation in Tokyo. The latter figure is a leading indicator for the country and should provide insight into the decision the Bank of Japan will make later that same day. Taiwan will also announce Q2 GDP on Friday.
Earlier in the week, Australia will present June consumer inflation data, and on Thursday, Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter of the Reserve Bank of Australia will give a statement. This comes after June data showed that the labor market remains strong, raising expectations for further rate hikes. The week is also rich in trade data: South Korea will publish its July trade figures on Saturday. Before that, June figures for Hong Kong, the Philippines, and Thailand will be presented.
Asian countries, including South Korea, report record export volumes almost monthly due to the growth in AI trade, and July appears to be no different, with external supplies growing by more than 50% year-on-year in the first 20 days of July.
Eurozone officials will receive the first batch of data to help them assess the need for another rate hike. According to median economist forecasts, GDP likely recovered, increasing by 0.2% in the second quarter, while inflation rose to 2.9% in July. This data is scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Belgium and Ireland will begin publishing growth data on Wednesday. Other national figures the next day may show growth of 0.1% in Germany, a return to expansion in France, stagnation in Italy, and sustained momentum in Spain. These reports are likely to confirm the picture painted by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in her remarks on Thursday, noting that the economy is showing 'some improvement,' and the inflation shock from the Iran war 'has not yet manifested.'
The Ifo Germany survey may also draw attention. In addition to pointing to the continued impact of the conflict in Iran, the business activity index, released on Monday, may show whether the economic reforms presented in Berlin have brought some strengthening of sentiment.
Besides further policy announcements from new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the main event in the UK is likely to be the Bank of England's rate decision on Thursday. Although no changes are expected, a minority faction voting for higher borrowing costs is also probable.
Central banks in Chile widely expect to keep their key rate unchanged at 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, as weak demand and moderate growth outweigh inflation, which is slightly above target. Economists and traders surveyed by the bank see the rate remaining steady this time, although the rapidly escalating war in Iran has led to a rise in one- and two-year swaps.
Observers of Brazil may pay closer attention to the central bank's Focus weekly survey following the previous release, which showed a decrease in inflation expectations for 2026, while expectations for 2028 rose almost sharply. Simultaneously, average forecasts for 2029 and 2030 shifted upwards. After the publication of the Banco Central do Brasil market report, the next step will be the mid-July inflation report. Most analysts consider the unexpected slowdown in the full monthly report for June—to 4.64%—a temporary phenomenon, anticipating higher figures in the coming months.
In Mexico, the focus will be on preliminary production data for April-June, which fell to -0.6% on a quarterly basis for the three months leading up to March. Latin America's second-largest economy has likely recovered thanks to lower inflation and lower interest rates, supporting domestic demand despite pressure from US tariffs and Trump's inconsistent trade policies, which are also slowing investment.
In Colombia, the central bank concludes the week and month with its monetary policy meeting. Although many observers view Abelardo de la Espilier's victory in the presidential elections in June as a significant plus for the central bank and monetary policy, BanRep still faces the challenge of curbing consumer price growth. Annual inflation accelerated in five of the last six months, and year-end expectations rose by more than 6.6%, while the central bank's target is 3%, making a half-point hike to 12.5% an early consensus.
The Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) announced that after the completion of the Oud Metha and Al Asail Road Development Project, travel time along a key corridor in Dubai will be reduced from twenty minutes to just five. This project is nearing completion, having reached 90 percent readiness.
As part of this development, a large three-lane bridge was commissioned on Sunday, July 26. It is intended for motorists traveling from Al Hail Road towards Al Asail Street via Al Wasl Club Street. This bridge has a capacity to handle 3600 vehicles per hour.
According to the authority, two tunnels and another bridge are planned to open by the end of August. The first tunnel will connect the service road on Oud Metha Street with the Sheikh Rashid Road intersection for drivers heading to Bur Dubai. The second tunnel will serve traffic coming from the Dubai-Al Ain Road towards Al Wasl Club Street, which should alleviate existing congestion.
A separate bridge will also open to facilitate left turns from Al Asail Street onto Oud Metha Street. Mattar Al Tayer, CEO and Chairman of the RTA Executive Council, stated that the project includes the modernization of four major intersections, the construction of two tunnels and bridges totaling 4.3 km, as well as 14 km of roads.
These works aim to improve traffic flow between Oud Metha Street, Sheikh Rashid Street, Al Asail Street, Al Hail Road, and Dubai-Al Ain Road. Improvements include additional lanes, new service roads, and modifications to several exits and access points. Once completed, the bridges and tunnels will increase capacity at key entrances, reduce traffic jams, and improve access to Al Wasl Club and surrounding residential and service areas.
The development will support several residential, service, and construction areas, including Zabail, Al Jaddaf, Oud Metha, and Umm Hurair, as well as Latifa Hospital and Al Wasl Club. It is expected that the population of the areas covered by the project will exceed 420,000 people by 2030. Furthermore, the project will allow for a reduction in travel time by up to 75 percent.
Earlier, in the first quarter of 2026, the RTA commissioned two other bridges under this project. The first is located at the intersection of Oud Metha Street, Al Asail Street, and Al Wasl Club. This two-lane bridge accommodates 2400 vehicles per hour and serves traffic traveling from Al Asail Street to Al Wasl Club Street. The second bridge is located at the intersection of Al Wasl Club Street and Al Hail Road and is for motorists traveling from Al Asail Street to Al Hail Road towards Business Bay Crossing.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) intends to sell approximately 900,000 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles during the current fiscal year. This figure represents an increase of nearly 30% compared to the previous period, attributed to rising demand for such vehicles following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East.
According to company senior executive Marto Banerjee, the demand for CNG vehicles has expanded beyond just small passenger cars and vans, showing growth even in the company's SUV segment. Banerjee told PTI that 220,000 units of CNG vehicles were sold in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, which is 58% more than in the same quarter last year.
Banerjee explained that the sharp rise in demand for CNG vehicles is due to the increase in fuel prices following the war in the Middle East. Considering the sales pace in the first quarter, the company has set a target of approximately 900,000 units for the entire year.
Currently, Maruti Suzuki India offers 15 CNG models on the domestic market, including light commercial vehicles. In the 2025-26 fiscal year, the company sold over 700,000 CNG vehicles. Banerjee noted that the demand for CNG is not limited to small cars, vans, and the utility vehicle Ertiga; there is also high demand for CNG in the SUV segment.
He added that in their Victorisv SUV, over 50% of sales are for the variant equipped with an underbody CNG tank. Taking this trend into account, the company has also introduced an 'underbody CNG' system in the recently launched updated version of the compact crossover Brezza. The new Brezza S-CNG is equipped with idle start-stop technology and a new six-speed manual transmission, ensuring improved fuel efficiency of 26.9 km/kg. Furthermore, last month, the share of CNG vehicles in the company's total sales volume was 42%.
