Despite the approaching drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon in the 2026–27 season, economist Agbiz Vandile Sikhlobo offers an encouraging forecast for South African consumers. Unlike previous drought periods, prolonged late rains have contributed to increased soil moisture and reservoir levels. Furthermore, record summer harvests and significant previously accumulated grain reserves should mitigate food price increases and inflation in 2027.
Experts and economists in the country are actively discussing the potential impact of the forecasted El Niño on agriculture and food prices in 2027. By mid-2026, weather forecasts indicated a possible onset of a strong El Niño. This phenomenon typically leads to drought in the South African region, negatively affecting agricultural production.
In his work as an agricultural economist, visiting various farming areas in South Africa, Vandile Sikhlobo highlights two key aspects when assessing the influence of El Niño on crop yields and food price inflation. Firstly, in the 2026–27 season, South Africa will begin with higher soil moisture. This is due to excessive rains in the 2025–26 season, which lasted longer than usual, extending until May 2026, whereas summer rains usually end around March. These precipitation events have improved the water levels in irrigation reservoirs, as well as soil and groundwater moisture, putting the country in a more favorable position before the new season.
Secondly, the country possesses large grain reserves and has a high grain stock, which can weaken some of the drought's impact on food prices and, consequently, on inflation. Food accounts for about 16.8% of South Africa's inflation basket, so rising food price inflation affects the overall inflation trend. Nevertheless, it is likely that 2027 will not resemble previous dry spells that caused noticeable increases in food price inflation and the overall inflation rate.
Maize is the main grain crop in South Africa. In the past, droughts led to substantial maize crop losses and broader impacts on other types of agriculture. For instance, one of the most memorable droughts occurred in the 2014–15 and 2015–16 seasons, when the average maize yield was about 8.9 million tons. For comparison, the current 2025–26 season expects a maize harvest of 17.3 million tons. Annual maize consumption in South Africa is approximately 12.0 million tons, and smaller harvests forced the country to import, leading to a spike in food price inflation, which averaged 10.8% in 2016 (compared to an average of 3.2% in the first five months of 2026).
The impact was felt not only on maize but also on field crops, including wheat, soy, sunflower seeds, and sugarcane. Approximately 20% of South Africa's field crops are irrigated, while the rest depend on rainfall. All fruit and vegetable production is carried out through irrigation and will benefit from higher water levels in reservoirs this year.
The first difference is that South Africa benefited from the prolonged La Niña phenomenon, which makes the region wetter and supported the agricultural sector in recent years. The rains contribute to a better farming situation before the 2026–27 season. In the 2024–25 season, summer rains continued until April 2025, and in the 2025–26 season, they extended until May 2026. Usually, such long periods of precipitation raise concerns about crop quality, but in the areas where the 2025–26 harvest was collected, no serious quality issues were observed. Moreover, the latest crop assessment committee forecasts have been revised upwards and still point to a record summer harvest for 2025–26.
The longer rainy season has improved soil moisture and groundwater levels. The planting period will begin in October 2026, and sufficient soil moisture can support seed germination and crop development, even if El Niño conditions lead to reduced rainfall. However, the timing of precipitation will be crucial for crop development.
In irrigated areas, such as fruit and vegetable growing regions, the recent years' La Niña rains have raised water levels in reservoirs and the general groundwater level. Regarding livestock, pastures across the country are in satisfactory condition thanks to longer rainy periods, and the improved groundwater level will continue to support pastures.
The second key factor is that in the 2025–26 season, South Africa harvested its largest summer yield of grains and oilseeds. The Crop Assessment Committee recorded a record summer harvest volume of 21.49 million tons for 2025–26, which is 5% more than the previous year. It is particularly noteworthy that for major grain crops, the maize production estimate for 2025–26 reached 17.25 million tons, which is 4% higher than the previous year and the largest harvest in history. This abundant grain collection is supplemented by large reserves remaining from the previous season.
The forecasted drought is not ideal and may create difficulties for farmers. However, the upcoming drought cannot be viewed the same way as previous dry spells. There are clear factors that could make the coming season more favorable than past droughts.
The intensifying El Niño phenomenon, combined with global warming, is causing changes in the pattern of monsoon rainfall in India, leading to more unpredictable weather conditions. These changes jeopardize agricultural production and place a strain on power grids.
This year's monsoon began with the fifth driest June on record, when rainfall was nearly 40% below normal. However, shortly after, there was a sudden heavy downpour that dumped about a month's worth of rain in a week on cities like Mumbai. Since then, the weather system has entered a new period of lull, and as of July 19, the nationwide rainfall was approximately 24% below the average for this time of year.
Raguram Murtugudde, an invited professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur and a professor at the University of Maryland, noted that previously, the distribution of rainy days was more uniform, allowing farmers to plan their sowing calendars. He explained that global warming, combined with El Niño, causes the atmosphere to behave like a sponge: it absorbs a large amount of water and then releases it all in one place.
Since about half of the country's agricultural land still relies on rainfall for irrigation, sharp swings between droughts and heavy rains disrupt the sowing of summer crops, threatening rural incomes and increasing the risk of food price hikes. Simultaneously, sudden pauses in the monsoon lead to urban areas experiencing suffocating humidity, which increases the demand for electricity for cooling.
G.P. Sharma, president of meteorology at the private company Skymet Weather Services, emphasized that the Indian monsoon is a long season with a pulsating effect, but this time it is behaving somewhat abnormally. According to him, the unpredictability is due to steering currents at altitudes of 20,000–25,000 feet above sea level. Rain-bearing systems encounter atmospheric blocking patterns at this height, causing monsoon depressions to either stall or deviate from their course.
Murtugudde added that prolonged breaks in the normal monsoon pattern are exacerbated by the impact of El Niño. This phenomenon forces the air over the subcontinent to sink rather than rise. Even when monsoon winds carry moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the descending motion acts like an atmospheric lid, preventing cloud formation and turning ambient humidity into 'stifling heat.'
In Bangalore, located in southern India, the hottest day of July in 112 years was recorded last week. The Indian Meteorological Department warned that in several regions, daytime temperatures exceed normal by 3–5°C. Murtugudde explained that more breaks mean more heat spells, which is what El Niño does. He compared India to a 'popcorn coffee pot,' which is very difficult to predict. Although the long-term assessment by IMD forecasts an overall seasonal rainfall volume at 94% of the long-term average, private meteorologists believe that the second half of the monsoon could bring a more significant rainfall deficit.
