According to the Fiscal Strategy for the upcoming three-year period, Uzbekistan has set its medium-term fiscal policy goals for 2027–2029.
Economic Indicators and Growth
The document provides for maintaining economic growth rates at around 7% annually, stabilizing the inflation rate within the target of 5% starting from 2027, and limiting the budget deficit to no more than 3% of GDP and public debt to no more than 40% of GDP.
GDP Forecasts and Growth Drivers
According to national forecasts, GDP growth will reach 8.1% in 2026, 6.9% in 2027, 7.1% in 2028, and 7.4% in 2029. The main driving forces will be industry, which is expected to expand by 6.7–7.9%, and market services, showing an annual growth of 14.3–15%. Agriculture is expected to increase by approximately 5%.
Strategic Development Goals
This strategy aligns with the overall goal of expanding the economy to over 240 billion US dollars by 2030 under the Uzbekistan–2030 strategy. To achieve this goal, it is planned to create sustainable sources of growth, increase private investment and exports, raise the country's sovereign credit rating to investment grade, and include Uzbekistan in the group of upper-middle-income countries.
Political Priorities and External Environment
The document mentions the IMF forecast from April, according to which global economic growth will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and global inflation will accelerate from 4.1% to 4.4%. Despite external uncertainty, strong domestic economic activity is considered the basis for maintaining high growth rates.
Measures to Improve the Financial System
Key policy priorities include expanding the tax revenue base through improving tax administration, reducing the shadow economy, and abolishing inefficient tax benefits, alongside targeted budget expenditures and strict adherence to fiscal rules. Furthermore, salaries of civil servants, pensions, and social benefits will be indexed at a rate no lower than inflation.
