July 24, 13:10

Uzbekistan is preparing a human capital strategy for 2050

The Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), organized a two-day strategic forum titled 'Uzbekistan–2050: The Future of Jobs and Human Capital.'

Discussion of Demographic Changes

The event gathered about 80 participants from government bodies, international organizations, and the expert community to discuss how demographic shifts, the development of artificial intelligence, and new employment models may change Uzbekistan's labor market and human capital needs by 2050.

According to forecasts, Uzbekistan's population will reach 51 million by 2050, with the working-age population comprising 33 million. This presents significant potential for economic growth but requires the accelerated creation of decent and productive jobs, improvement in education quality, and development of skills aligned with future economic demands.

Experts' Views on Development

Dr. Nigina Abaszada, UNFPA representative in Uzbekistan, emphasized that Uzbekistan is entering a critical period where the country's competitiveness and inclusive economic growth will be determined by demographic changes, economic transformation, and accelerated technological development. She noted that progress is not guaranteed solely by demographic changes but depends on the ability to effectively anticipate, prepare for, and utilize these changes as opportunities.

Abaszada added that demographic resilience is particularly important today, as it concerns not only changes in population size but also the creation of conditions under which every young person acquires future skills, women gain equal economic opportunities, and the changing labor market leaves no one behind.

Scenarios and Thematic Areas

Participants examined four possible scenarios for Uzbekistan's development up to 2050. These scenarios reflect different combinations of the pace of technological transformation and the capacity of the education system, labor market, and public institutions to adapt to changes. They are designed not as predictions but as tools to test existing assumptions, identify risks, and develop solutions that remain relevant amid uncertainty.

Discussions focused on five key areas: expanding women's economic opportunities and their participation in the future economy; talent development and youth empowerment; active longevity and the future of retirement age; new employment models and future professions; and professional retraining, new skills, and continuous learning.

Labor Market Prospects

Hojjaxon Yusupov, Head of the Demography Forecasting Department at the Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan, stressed that the future of the labor market is being shaped now. He stated the necessity of understanding in advance which professions, competencies, and forms of employment will be in demand, and creating conditions where economic growth is accompanied by increased productivity, income, and quality of life for the population. The results of this work will help form a specific set of policy measures and initiatives for human capital development and preparing the country for changes until 2050.

Particular attention was paid to the impact of automation and artificial intelligence on employment. It was noted that the share of Uzbekistan's population aged 15 to 64 using generative artificial intelligence increased by approximately 25.5 percent between the first half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

Participants discussed the need to expand access to digital technologies and skills, including developing tools in the Uzbek language, provided that productivity growth leads to the creation of higher-quality jobs and increased incomes.

Next Steps After the Forum

Following the conclusion of the forum, five thematic working groups will prepare proposals for prospective policies, projects, and initiatives. These proposals will include practical measures for immediate implementation, as well as long-term transformative solutions in the fields of education, employment, social protection, digitalization, and women's economic participation.

The event took place as part of the ongoing cooperation between the Ministry of Economy and Finance and UNFPA, aimed at strengthening demographic resilience and developing data-driven policy within the 'CISPop: Best Data for Better Policy' program.

uzdaily.uzJuly 21, 07:45

Uzbekistan Approves Fiscal Targets Until 2029

According to the Fiscal Strategy for the upcoming three-year period, Uzbekistan has set its medium-term fiscal policy goals for 2027–2029.

Economic Indicators and Growth

The document provides for maintaining economic growth rates at around 7% annually, stabilizing the inflation rate within the target of 5% starting from 2027, and limiting the budget deficit to no more than 3% of GDP and public debt to no more than 40% of GDP.

GDP Forecasts and Growth Drivers

According to national forecasts, GDP growth will reach 8.1% in 2026, 6.9% in 2027, 7.1% in 2028, and 7.4% in 2029. The main driving forces will be industry, which is expected to expand by 6.7–7.9%, and market services, showing an annual growth of 14.3–15%. Agriculture is expected to increase by approximately 5%.

Strategic Development Goals

This strategy aligns with the overall goal of expanding the economy to over 240 billion US dollars by 2030 under the Uzbekistan–2030 strategy. To achieve this goal, it is planned to create sustainable sources of growth, increase private investment and exports, raise the country's sovereign credit rating to investment grade, and include Uzbekistan in the group of upper-middle-income countries.

Political Priorities and External Environment

The document mentions the IMF forecast from April, according to which global economic growth will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and global inflation will accelerate from 4.1% to 4.4%. Despite external uncertainty, strong domestic economic activity is considered the basis for maintaining high growth rates.

Measures to Improve the Financial System

Key policy priorities include expanding the tax revenue base through improving tax administration, reducing the shadow economy, and abolishing inefficient tax benefits, alongside targeted budget expenditures and strict adherence to fiscal rules. Furthermore, salaries of civil servants, pensions, and social benefits will be indexed at a rate no lower than inflation.

gazeta.uzJuly 20, 13:52

Forecast for average pension in Uzbekistan for 2027 is 1.8 million soums

According to the Fiscal Strategy for the period 2027–2029, prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, it is projected that the average pension amount in Uzbekistan will reach 1.8 million soums in 2027. This figure exceeds the level of 1.7 million soums recorded in 2026.

Forecasts on the number of recipients and expenditures

It is expected that the number of citizens receiving pensions may increase by 165 thousand, reaching a total of 4.592 million people. It is projected that the Pension Fund's expenditures in 2027 will amount to 95.7 trillion soums, which is 11.1% more than expected in 2026. The growth in these expenditures is partly due to the increase in the number of pensioners.

Income and budgetary support

It is planned that the fund's income will increase by 14%, reaching 73.8 trillion soums. The main source of revenue remains the social tax, which is forecast to bring in 71.4 trillion soums. To cover a possible deficit and ensure timely payments from the republican budget, 23 trillion soums are planned to be allocated, corresponding to the 2026 level.

Prospects for the development of the pension system

Medium-term forecasts show a further increase in the number of pension recipients: 4.76 million people are expected in 2028, and 4.94 million in 2029. Accordingly, the average pension amount is forecasted at 1.9 million soums in 2028 and 2.1 million soums in 2029. By 2029, the fund's total expenditures may rise to 119.4 trillion soums.

Recommendations for increasing sustainability

The Ministry of Economy and Finance warns that without implementing reforms, the dependence of the pension system on state financing during the 2027–2029 period will remain high. Key problems noted include informal employment, which limits the fund's income base, and the existence of social tax benefits for certain legal entities.

To improve coverage by the pension system, it is proposed to gradually transition self-employed individuals who currently do not pay social tax to paying it. Additionally, citizens with official earnings may be given opportunities to voluntarily pay social tax for non-working family members to build their service record. Furthermore, the possibility of gradually abolishing and limiting the provision of new social tax benefits is being considered.

Current situation with pensions

As of June 1, there were over 4.35 million pension recipients in Uzbekistan. These categories include about 3.6 million people receiving old-age pensions, 484.5 thousand receiving disability pensions, and another 260.6 thousand due to loss of breadwinner. Overall, the average pension amount in the country was 1.58 million soums, but as of July 1, this figure increased by an average of 7%. In the capital, Tashkent, the average pension amount was significantly higher—2.16 million soums.