US President Donald Trump publicly stated the possibility of granting Ukraine the right to manufacture Patriot interceptors, which gave hope to millions of Ukrainians suffering from Russian ballistic missile strikes.
Announcement at NATO Summit
During the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump announced that 'a little sparrow told me... that we will give them the right to produce Patriots.' This statement was unexpected, although Ukraine had been working on this issue for many years, and there were signs of a deal being concluded soon. President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was next to Trump, looked as if he could barely believe his luck.
Complex relations exist between the two politicians, and the escalation of the war in Iran seems to have irritated Trump shortly before meeting with Zelensky. However, Trump admitted that he had not yet discussed this matter with American companies that produce Patriots—Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. These companies have not commented on the issue so far.
Ukraine's Need for Patriots
Zelensky noted that starting production would allow Ukraine to secure a sufficient number of interceptors for itself and also assist allies. Ukraine has always faced a shortage of Patriot missiles, which are the only means capable of shooting down some of Russia's most advanced ballistic missiles. However, in recent weeks, the deficit has become critical, and the consequences have been devastating.
In the last week alone, Russian attacks have claimed the lives of no fewer than 59 people in the Kyiv region: one major air strike on Thursday took 31 lives, and another on Monday took 28. More than 200 people were injured. Many of these deaths could likely have been prevented with a sufficient number of interceptors in Kyiv.
Air Defense Situation
Ukraine has demonstrated mastery in defending its skies from Russian air attacks by using a combination of its own advanced technology, weaponry supplied by the West, and inventive military tactics, including mobile units of soldiers and volunteers who repurpose weapons intended for other purposes to shoot down drones and missiles. Analysis of data from the Ukrainian Air Force shows that the country regularly shoots down 90% of Russian drones and cruise missiles. However, ballistic missiles present a different problem: two-thirds of them regularly pass through the defense. The Patriot shortage has created an even larger gap in the system. Ukrainian military officials reported on Wednesday that they failed to shoot down a single Russian ballistic missile launched on Wednesday night.
This is because ballistic missiles follow a curved trajectory that takes them outside the Earth's atmosphere, after which they fall back onto the target. They move at extremely high speeds, making interception very difficult. Currently, Russia launches up to 100 such missiles monthly.
Features of the Patriot System
Patriot, which stands for Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercept on Target, is a key air defense system of the US Army. It is the most advanced available system, and its high cost reflects this. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a complete installation, including launchers, radars, and interceptors, costs over a billion dollars, and a single interceptor can cost up to 4 million dollars.
The technology underlying this system is a strictly guarded secret. Currently, only Japan and Germany have licenses for domestic co-production of Patriot. The complexity of the weapon makes producing the latest interceptors difficult: according to the US Department of Defense, only 600 units are produced annually. The recent conflict between the US and Iran has increased pressure on already limited stocks. Zelensky emphasized that starting production in Ukraine would ultimately allow it to produce enough interceptors for its own needs and those of its allies.
According to available data, Ukraine possesses at least seven Patriot systems: three were provided by the US, three by Germany, and at least one by a group of European allies. While obtaining a license would be a significant step for Kyiv, it will not have a major effect in the short term. Starting production may take months, but the country needs protection right now. On Thursday, Kyiv announced that it had appealed to nearly 40 countries asking them to provide Ukraine with missiles from their existing stocks as soon as possible, 'in exchange for future supplies already agreed upon for Ukraine.'
Moscow's Reaction to the Promise
Securing licenses would be a major boost for Kyiv, so Moscow is closely monitoring any developments concerning Patriot. Moscow has openly declared targeted attacks on systems in Ukraine and warned Kyiv's allies against supplying these systems. On Thursday, speaking to journalists during a daily briefing, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed the significance of the Patriot licensing promise as a radical change in the war, pointing out that Trump's position showed 'a certain ambivalence' and 'duality.'