The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to keep the repo rate at 7% on Thursday. This decision was made cautiously, as rising global oil prices and increasing inflation expectations continue to pose risks to the inflation forecast, despite weak economic growth.
SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago announced that the MPC voted four to two to maintain rates unchanged. Two committee members advocated for a 25 basis point hike, reflecting concerns about persistent inflationary pressure.
Kganyago stated: 'The Committee decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 7%. Four members preferred maintaining it, while two supported a 25 basis point increase.' He added that the committee agreed that prospects are uncertain, and the current policy is appropriate as rates remain somewhat restrictive.
This decision came against the backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This situation led to an increase in Brent crude oil prices from approximately $70 per barrel at the beginning of the month to around $99 per barrel, intensifying concerns over fuel costs and inflation.
Kganyago noted that recent inflation figures remained above the bank's target largely due to higher fuel prices. Meanwhile, food inflation slowed down thanks to good harvests and the reduced impact of foot-and-mouth disease.
According to Kganyago, overall inflation is expected to exceed 4% until the beginning of next year. The MPC also warned about rising inflation expectations, with the latest survey by the Bureau of Economic Research showing that all respondent groups predict higher inflation, particularly trade unions.
The central bank pointed out that services inflation remains high, and its preferred core inflation indicators continue to point to sustained price pressures. Regarding growth, SARB acknowledged that the economy performed better than expected in the first quarter, growing almost 2% year-on-year, mainly due to stronger net exports.
However, Kganyago cautioned that momentum has since weakened as consumer and business confidence deteriorated following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. He emphasized that households have been affected by rising fuel prices, and uncertainty has negatively impacted investment. Furthermore, municipal dysfunction has emerged as a constraint on growth.
According to the Bank's Quarterly Projection Model, interest rates are likely to remain generally stable until the end of the year. A potential rate cut is only being considered if inflation sustainably approaches the Bank's target of 3%. Kganyago reiterated that future decisions will be data-dependent and will be made based on a careful analysis of each meeting, focusing on forecasts, data outcomes, and the balance of risks to the outlook.
The South African real estate sector positively received the decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates unchanged. This decision was made against a backdrop of persistently high borrowing costs and a complex economic environment.
On Thursday, SARB Governor Lesetja Kangago announced that the MPC decided to leave the policy rate at 7% and the prime rate at 10.50%. According to Mafepho Sipula, Head of Research and Impact at Property Point, this SARB decision seeks a balance between managing inflationary risks and supporting an economy that continues to face slow growth.
Sipula noted that although inflation accelerated to 5.0% in June, maintaining the current rate provides households, businesses, and the real estate sector with necessary certainty following the hike in May. However, she warned that this does not mean the interest rate cycle is over, as the MPC remains data-dependent, and future decisions will be determined by inflation trends, global economic events, and domestic growth conditions.
According to Property Point data, keeping the repo rate stable provides stability for the real estate sector. Homeowners with variable mortgage payments will avoid another increase in monthly payments, and potential buyers can make purchasing decisions with greater clarity regarding borrowing costs. For developers and property enterprises, this decision offers some relief after several months of increased financing costs.
Nevertheless, borrowing costs remain high compared to historical levels, requiring careful management when assessing project feasibility, investment decisions, and access to finance. Experts emphasize that the sector's recovery will depend on many factors beyond interest rates.
Sipula believes that achieving sustainable growth requires a reduction in inflation, stronger economic growth, improved infrastructure reliability, increased investor confidence, and higher household incomes. While the rate hold positively influences market confidence, housing affordability issues persist. Property Point cautions that the MPC's July decision brings stability but should not breed complacency, as rates remain high.
The company advises households and businesses to continue making financial decisions based on affordability rather than expectations of imminent rate cuts. Prospective homeowners should ensure they have sufficient financial reserves before taking on new debt, while existing owners should continue to prioritize sound financial planning and debt management. Real estate investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective, focusing on well-located assets with steady rental demand, and developers should exercise prudence in financial management and diligently assess project viability.
Richard Malion, CEO of Fine & Country South Africa, noted that the decision to keep interest rates unchanged introduces a highly valued element into the real estate market—stability. He argues that this certainty helps buyers feel confident in their planning, and sellers in entering the market knowing the situation remains familiar.
Malion stressed that the best real estate decisions are never dictated by a single MPC announcement. He added that such decisions are driven by timing, preparation, and professional guidance. He urged people to focus on personal goals rather than reacting to short-term headlines, reminding them that markets evolve, opportunities remain, and confidence follows proper advice.
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates without making any changes.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to keep the repo rate at 7%, while the lending rate stands at 10.5%. This decision was made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thursday.
The MPC, which held a meeting on Thursday, stated in a release from SARB Governor Lesetjo Kganyago that various scenarios regarding inflation expectations and fuel prices were analyzed before making the decision.
This decision followed the South African Statistics Agency (Stats SA) reporting on Wednesday that annual consumer inflation accelerated to 5% in June, higher than the 4.5% recorded in May and exceeding market expectations of 4.7%.
Regarding South Africa's economic growth, the MPC noted that first-quarter growth was stronger than forecasts, approaching 2% year-on-year. However, this growth was driven by an increase in net exports rather than domestic demand.
The Committee forecasts a slowdown in growth during the second and third quarters of the current year. It highlighted a sharp decline in consumer confidence and weakening business confidence. According to sectoral surveys, there is a general decrease in activity since the start of the war. Furthermore, export prices have fallen, although trade conditions have improved due to lower import prices.
The MPC added that while there was good momentum at the beginning of the year, households were affected by rising fuel prices, and uncertainty negatively impacted investments. The baseline forecast is that the economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year as the shock subsides, although the overall outlook remains uncertain.
On the issue of inflation, the committee reported that according to the latest survey by the Bureau of Economic Research, inflation expectations have risen, with short-term changes being more significant than long-term ones. All surveyed groups expected inflation to rise, with the largest change recorded among trade unions. Market expectations for the break-even point softened from May but remain higher than at the beginning of the year, and there is a risk of increased inflation.
In the vote, four members favored maintaining the rate, while two advocated for a 25 basis point increase. The Committee agreed that the situation is uncertain and believes that the current policy, considering the previous rate hike, is appropriate, as rates remain somewhat restrictive.
Tys van Zyl, CEO of Everest Advisory Services, a financial service provider, suggested that this decision reflects the Reserve Bank's view that current inflationary pressure is primarily caused by external factors. He noted that the recent rise in inflation is largely linked to external reasons, such as rising fuel prices and the subsequent impact on transport costs and the price of other goods and services.
According to Van Zyl, in this environment, raising interest rates might only have a limited impact on current inflationary pressure while simultaneously placing additional strain on an already struggling economy. He also emphasized that this decision will bring welcome relief to many South Africans, allowing financially strained households to stabilize their positions without increasing debt payments, and providing businesses with greater confidence when making investment and expansion decisions.
