Fatih Birol commented that despite the deteriorating situation in the Strait of Hormuz, there are factors mitigating the risks, such as the major efforts made by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to ensure oil supply through alternative routes to the strait.
Furthermore, increased exports from other producers, notably the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan, along with China's efforts to reduce imports, help stabilize the scenario. Birol observed that China has played a significant role in stabilizing markets, managing to reduce its crude oil imports by approximately 50% compared to the period before the war.
About 30 member countries had announced in March the release of 400 million barrels to alleviate the crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East. This release of strategic reserves in March was the sixth and largest in IEA history. The organization emphasized that the 'full and unconditional' reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial to prevent further degradation of global energy security.
Birol also highlighted that refining has not grown at the same rate as crude oil delivery, implying that refined product markets, such as diesel and gasoline, face greater pressure than the crude oil market, which is reflected in current prices.
In the natural gas sector, other producers, specifically the United States and Canada, managed to cover about 70% of the lost supply. However, potential delays in resuming Gulf exports could keep markets under pressure for longer, affecting all importers, including Europe. In its latest monthly report on the oil market, released on July 10, the IEA predicted a drop in demand of one million barrels per day in 2026, a figure lower than the 1.1 million estimate presented in June.
The organization noted that global supply has recovered due to the partial resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, although production remains considerably below pre-war levels in the Middle East. In June, the IEA recorded a global oil supply of 98.8 million barrels per day and projects an average of 102.6 million barrels per day for 2026, assuming no new hostilities occur. At the opening of European exchanges today, Brent crude, the benchmark in Europe for September delivery, fell 0.77% to $88.53, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark in the United States for the same month, dropped 0.28% to $82.25.
The South African Social Security Agency (SASSA) aims to save the state approximately R1.5 billion in the current financial year by intensifying social grant verification checks. Simultaneously, the agency is implementing measures to reduce long queues and improve service for millions of beneficiaries.
Minister of Social Development Sisisi Tshabalala acknowledged growing public dissatisfaction due to long waits at SASSA offices. She stated that restoring the dignity of grant recipients will be one of her top priorities. Tshabalala noted receiving complaints about people standing in long queues in most offices and had to intervene urgently to understand the cause and ensure an immediate resolution to restore respect.
This announcement comes in celebration of SASSA's 20th anniversary. Over this period, the agency has grown from an entity administering benefits for a small number of beneficiaries in 2006 to paying nearly 19 million social grants monthly, covering over 10 million beneficiaries.
Tshabalala emphasized that while social grants remain a vital lifeline for millions of vulnerable residents in South Africa, the government is obliged to maintain the sustainability of the system and ensure that aid reaches only eligible recipients. The Minister explained that grants are not just payments but a lifeline for many households; however, it is necessary to protect public resources and maintain trust in the system by supporting everyone who qualifies.
A key part of these efforts is SASSA's ongoing grant verification program, which checks whether beneficiaries meet the requirements of the Social Assistance Act. According to the Minister, thanks to improved data verification systems, over 420,000 beneficiaries were identified for review during the 2025/26 financial year. More than 240,000 verifications have been completed, while about 160,000 beneficiaries failed to attend the verification.
In the current financial year, SASSA plans to verify over 350,000 grants, which is projected to result in savings of R1.5 billion, which can be redirected to other state needs. Tshabalala clarified that the checks help ensure that the correct grant is paid to the right person at the right time, and they are not punitive but are a legal requirement to confirm continuous eligibility and identify changes in financial, family, or medical circumstances.
The Minister also highlighted the government's efforts to combat fraud using biometric verification technology, which is linked with the Department of Home Affairs for real-time beneficiary authentication. She stated that the biometric verification program has significantly strengthened identity authentication when submitting new applications and conducting grant checks, helping to prevent identity theft, duplicate claims, and other forms of fraud that undermine public trust in the system.
To reduce the burden on SASSA service centers, more than 1,000 contract workers are being hired nationwide to assist with applications, grant checks, and beneficiary inquiries. The agency also intends to extend office hours in busy areas. Furthermore, the government is expanding digital services, including online applications, WhatsApp platforms, and mobile apps, encouraging beneficiaries to use electronic life certification to confirm their eligibility without visiting SASSA offices.
Tshabalala particularly stressed the importance of these measures for the elderly, persons with disabilities, and beneficiaries living in remote areas who may find it difficult to reach a SASSA office. She added that home visits will continue for beneficiaries over 75 years old and those in poor health to minimize unnecessary travel. The Minister reported that in the coming weeks, she will visit SASSA offices across the country to monitor the implementation of the new measures and engage directly with communities, emphasizing that achieving this remains non-negotiable for restoring the dignity and respect of people for whom social assistance is a lifeline.
Former Chief Statistician Pali Lehola presented a bleak picture of the South African economy during the Thought Leadership Seminar organized by the Electoral Commission. He noted that the current economy, valued at 7 trillion rand, should reach 21 trillion rand.
Dr. Lehola warned that high levels of unemployment and poverty pose a direct threat to the country's democratic future. As an advocate for economic transformation, he pointed out that corruption and inefficient state economic management are the causes of the current situation.
Speaking to media representatives on the sidelines of the IEC Thought Leadership Seminar in Centurion, he stated: 'This economy of 7 trillion rand should be 21 trillion rand. Our economic policies have been foolish. That is what has brought us here. There is so much wealth in this country, but we have restricted it.'
His concerns arose after the National Treasury announced the receipt of a $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank. These funds are intended to support reforms aimed at addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, boosting economic growth, and creating jobs. Lehola contrasted this reliance on external loans with the post-apartheid period when the country relied on its own resources.
He added that even in an economy of 21 trillion rand, the greedier could take 3 or 4 trillion rand, and there would still be 17 trillion rand left for everyone. However, now they are stealing from the economy of 7 trillion rand, leaving the poor behind.
Lehola called on the South African government to rethink its economic strategies, which he believes continue to hinder the country's development. He noted that officials fail to see the big picture and overlook the abundance because they are focused on theft. He also mentioned that seeking loans from the IMF has become commonplace.
Previously, during his official presentation, Dr. Lehola appealed to the IEC to actively participate in ensuring genuine democracy, which is reflected in economic freedom for South African youth. He emphasized that money labeled as 'crisis' is not related to development or democracy. In his view, a wise government should invest in agricultural initiatives, which falls under the IEC's mandate, otherwise unrest may occur.
The seminar was closed by Judge Daya Pillay, who commented on how growing inequality can push citizens to a critical point where the benefits of participation no longer outweigh the costs, and citizens begin to defend themselves in isolation.
Consumers in South Africa faced a sharper increase in the cost of living in June than economists had predicted. Annual inflation accelerated to 5%, up from 4.5% in May. This figure reached the level observed in June 2024, which was caused by increased transport costs.
According to Statistics South Africa data, consumer prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month. The transport, housing, and utility sectors, as well as insurance and financial services, contributed most significantly to annual inflation. Transport became the main driver, accelerating by 12.7%. Housing and utility price increases amounted to 5.5%, while insurance and financial services saw a rise of 5.9%.
Meanwhile, inflation in the food segment remained relatively moderate. Annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages was 1.6%. Specifically, the price of cereals continued to fall (deflation) by 1.5%, and fruit prices dropped by 10% compared to the previous year. However, meat prices rose by 5.1% year-on-year, and the cost of electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 9.9%, with fuel prices being 34.3% higher than in June 2025.
Despite expectations of growth, economists predicted that annual inflation in June would be slightly higher, in the range of 4.7%–4.8%, attributed to rising fuel prices. These forecasts suggested that inflation would remain within the target range set by the South African Reserve Bank, which is 3% with an allowable deviation of one percentage point in either direction. Many experts viewed the recent rise as a temporary phenomenon rather than the start of a sustained acceleration in price growth.
Johann Els, Chief Economist at PSG, expected annual inflation to reach around 4.8% in June, mainly due to the rise in petrol prices. Nevertheless, he noted that this increase would be short-lived, as the expected reduction in fuel prices introduced in July should allow inflation to fall back to a level between 4.2% and 4.3%.
Els also mentioned that inflation expectations rose in the second quarter after oil prices climbed to approximately $100 per barrel. However, since then, oil prices have fallen to $74 per barrel, and lower prices for petrol and diesel in July should ease the financial situation of households in the coming months. These comments from Els preceded the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, which led to a renewed rise in oil prices above $85 per barrel.
Samuel Seeff, Chairman of Seeff Property Group, forecasted that inflation in June would be around 4.7%. Acknowledging the expected increase, he noted that the projected average annual inflation remained below the central bank's upper target limit of 4%, indicating that inflation should remain generally controlled. Seeff argued that the expected rise in June reflects a temporary spike, whereas the impact of interest rate hikes on consumers and the economy is felt much longer. He added that prolonged restrictive monetary policy has contributed to weak economic growth and continues to put pressure on the property market.
Vishal Rama, Portfolio Manager at Prescient Investment Management, also predicted annual inflation to rise to 4.7%–4.8%, primarily linked to increased transport costs following the rise in fuel prices in June. Rama believed that food inflation would continue to slow down due to favorable base effects and falling fresh produce prices, helping to offset some of the pressure created by transport costs. In his view, despite transport becoming the largest factor in headline inflation recently, easing food price pressures should limit broader inflationary pressure, suggesting that June may mark the peak of the current inflation cycle.
Meanwhile, Investec revised its forecast for average inflation in 2026 upwards, setting it at 3.7% instead of the previous 3.3%, reflecting the impact of higher international oil prices on inflation outlooks.
