US President Donald Trump has proposed a phased plan to introduce tariffs on imported generic drugs, which could reach 200% by 2028, aiming to stimulate American production. This move is significant for the Indian pharmaceutical industry and bilateral trade.
Details of the Tariff Plan
Under the proposal, generic medicines imported into the US will be subject to zero tariffs for two years, starting August 1st. After this, the zero-tariff period will be extended for another year, after which the rate will increase to 100%, eventually reaching 200% in August 2029. This phased structure is intended to give pharmaceutical companies time to relocate manufacturing capacity to the US before punitive duties take effect.
Trump stated in a post on Truth Social that this measure aims at 'bringing generic drug manufacturing back to America,' penalizing companies that fail to build factories and equipment within the specified period.
Reasons for the Measures and Market Impact
This announcement is part of Trump's broader strategy to bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to the US and reduce dependence on foreign supply chains. According to Trump, the policy's goal is to protect US citizens, while policies regarding patented, branded, and innovative drugs will remain unchanged.
Trump has repeatedly argued that the US pays significantly more for medications than many other countries and has sought to address accessibility issues by reforming the pharmaceutical sector. This issue has gained political importance ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections. Previously, in April 2025, his administration initiated an investigation under national oversight of pharmaceutical imports according to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. In April of this year, Trump signed an executive order tightening tariffs to 100% on imported branded pharmaceutical products, provided manufacturers agree to government price agreements or commit to producing in the US.
Consequences for Indian Exports
The immediate impact on Indian pharmaceutical exports is likely to be limited due to the proposed two-year tariff-free period. This transition period allows Indian manufacturers to review their supply chains, export strategies, and potential investments in US production. However, the projected increase to 100% and ultimately 200% tariffs could eventually affect Indian exporters who do not establish a local manufacturing base.
India is one of the largest suppliers of generic drugs to the US. Pharmaceuticals account for one of India's top three exports to the United States, amounting to $10.5 billion in 2024-25, according to government data. Indian generics constitute nearly 40% of volume prescriptions in the US market, making the sector particularly vulnerable to sharp tariff increases.
India is also a leading supplier of finished generic dosage forms to the American market. Analyses based on data from the US Food and Drug Administration and trade data estimate that Indian manufacturers provide about 40-50% of total generic prescriptions in the United States. Thus, the proposed tariffs could significantly affect India's pharmaceutical exports if companies do not localize production.
According to Bloomberg, it remains unclear what portion of Trump's proposed tariff burden Indian pharmaceutical companies will ultimately face. Drug tariffs could negatively impact over 40% of India's exports to the US. Previous threats by Trump also jeopardized several commonly prescribed drugs from India, including contraceptives and medications for hypertension and depression. Regarding birth control pills, Bloomberg reported that approximately 65% of prescriptions filled in the US in 2024 were produced by two Indian manufacturers—Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Lupin.
Broader Trade Context
The pharmaceutical sector is also facing broader trade uncertainty. Jamieson Green, a representative of the US Chamber of Commerce, indicated that the Trump administration may soon introduce new trade measures against about 60 economies, including India, on allegations related to forced labor imports. Washington has proposed an additional 12.5% tariff on imports from India as part of this investigation, although a final decision has not been announced.
Impact on the Indian Economy
Beyond pharmaceuticals, Trump's tariff measures have put pressure on several export-oriented sectors in India. Labor-intensive industries such as textiles and apparel, precious metals and jewelry, leather and footwear, chemicals, engineering goods, and auto components remain most vulnerable due to their reliance on the US market.
According to a Times of India report, although exporters noted increased demand from American buyers in recent weeks, uncertainty regarding potential US tariff measures has delayed the signing of firm orders. Buyers have postponed purchases pending greater clarity on Washington's trade policy. It is reported that sectors including chemicals, textiles, carpets, and leather have attracted greater interest from US buyers, though this has not yet resulted in significant contracts.
Government data showed that India's exports to the US decreased by 1.21% year-on-year to $8.17 billion in June, while imports rose by 33.86% to $5.5 billion.
Current State of Negotiations
India and the US have been negotiating a bilateral trade agreement for several months as both countries seek to deepen trade and investment ties. These negotiations have gained more significance amid expectations of new US tariff announcements at the end of this month.
The government recently informed Parliament that it is closely monitoring all developments and continuing engagement with the US administration. India's Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, held high-level meetings with US Chamber of Commerce representative Jamieson Greer regarding a comprehensive trade agreement. Although Goyal dismissed reports that India was waiting for better terms, he emphasized that India and the US are actively negotiating, and New Delhi will not concede on its core interests in any trade pact.
In February, Trump announced a temporary trade agreement with India that eased tariff tensions by lowering US rates on Indian goods from an effective 50% to 18%. The agreement also suspended a proposed additional 25% tariff related to India's purchases of Russian oil and reduced mutual tariff rates from 25% to 18%. In return, India agreed to lower or eliminate tariffs on a range of American industrial, agricultural, and consumer goods, with both sides committing to continue negotiations on a broader bilateral trade agreement.
Later, the mutual tariffs ceased to apply following a US Supreme Court ruling on February 20th, which invalidated them. Nevertheless, a 10% tariff remains in place on certain goods from all countries under Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974.
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