Research company Grand View Research (GVR) has significantly adjusted its forecasts regarding the humanoid robot industry. The company's updated report estimates the global market size at $40.5 billion by 2033, with an expected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 38.2% from 2026 to 2033.
The previous version of the GVR report, available on the company's website, projected a market volume of $1.55 billion in 2024, growing to $4.04 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 17.5%. With the new growth rate factored in, the market is projected to be around $4.2 billion in 2026, roughly double the previous version's figure for the same year, and reach $15.3 billion by 2030, nearly four times the initial forecast.
A significant portion of this increase is attributed to a change in analytical methodology rather than a revision of fundamental principles. However, the scale of the adjustment indicates a clear rise in investment and anticipated growth in humanoid robot production.
The most notable change is the shift in analysts' focus regarding the intended use of these machines. In the old version, the 'wheeled drive' segment accounted for the largest market share—65.6% in 2024—and GVR expected it to remain the fastest-growing category. Personal assistance and care was the leading application at 31.6%.
The situation has changed drastically: the bipedal segment now holds the largest share. GVR explains this by citing the 'increased adoption of autonomous mobile humanoid robots and last-mile delivery applications.' Manufacturing has replaced it as the largest application, supported by the 'growing need for automation of routine, high-precision, and dangerous industrial tasks such as assembly, inspection, welding support, and material handling.'
If two years ago the market described by GVR consisted mainly of wheeled robots greeting people in hotel lobbies and assisting in nursing homes, the current market includes walking machines operating in factories and warehouses.
Progress in bipedal locomotion was demonstrated in Shenzhen last week, where two EngineAI T800 robots fought in a hexagonal cage during the first match of the Ultimate Robot Knock-out Legend tournament, positioned as the first mixed martial arts genre event. The robots exchanged kicks until one lost its head but continued fighting without it. Action movie actor Donnie Yen, who observed the fight, called the robots' 'pure power and precise movements' incredible.
The share of hardware in the market has also increased: from 69.7% in 2024 to over 79.4% in 2025. GVR links this to the heightened demand for sensors, actuators, robot mobility systems, AI processors, and power management components.
GVR revised its list of significant companies in line with these changes. The old version named 10 firms, including Hyulim Robot, Sanbot, and Willow Garage—a robotics lab that closed in 2014. The new version includes 30 companies. Five of the original names have been retained, including Honda and Engineered Arts, but capital attraction today is driven by new participants: Tesla, Figure AI, Nvidia, Samsung, Xiaomi, XPeng, Unitree, Boston Dynamics, and Agility Robotics. Previously, TechCentral covered XPeng's transition into humanoid robotics with its Iron robot.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk visited the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2026, making his first public appearance at the event he had long criticized. He told BlackRock CEO and WEF Co-chair Larry Fink that robotics and artificial intelligence are a 'path to abundance for all.'
Musk speculated that 'there will be more robots than people,' adding that humanoid robots could assist in caring for the elderly in a world lacking youth to care for the older generation. He also provided timelines, stating that Tesla's Optimus robots would perform 'simple tasks' in factories by the end of the current year, and 'most likely by the end of next year we will be selling humanoid robots to the general public.'
Musk is actively involved in this topic: Tesla features in the new GVR key players list, whereas it was absent from the old list, and Optimus is central to the company's investor presentation. He previously made similar predictions, stating in October 2024 at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia that 'by 2040 there will probably be more humanoid robots than people,' equivalent to over 10 billion machines.
This forecast has drawn skepticism in the industry. Angelo Kangelozi, a professor of machine learning and robotics at the University of Manchester, called it 'definitely unrealistic,' telling Newsweek that while robots will handle complex work, 'they will only specialize in a subset of tasks. Not entirely humanoid.' He also warned that demonstration videos rarely show the failed attempts behind every successful result.
Musk acknowledged the uncertainty of his timelines, noting at the 2024 event: 'When I make a prediction, I try to say: 'What is the probable fifty percentile,' which means half the time I should be wrong.'
For comparison, Barclays analysts valued the humanoid robotics market at $2 billion to $3 billion currently and expect at least $40 billion by 2035, possibly up to $200 billion. GVR reaches a similar figure two years earlier, placing its estimates at the upper end of major market projections, not making them anomalous.
South Africa is one of the three countries GVR tracks individually in the Middle East and Africa, alongside Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The report does not publish a specific figure for South Africa, and the BCSA region is not represented in the published main data.
North America remains the largest regional market, but its dominance has weakened in GVR's forecasts: its revenue share dropped from 52.2% in 2024 to 'over 43.4%' in 2025.
If the manufactured machines are oriented towards assembly lines and warehouses rather than reception desks, the question of automation becomes closer to sectors employing many South Africans. TechCentral investigated the risk that AI-driven automation will most strongly affect retail, logistics, and basic manufacturing, and reported on China's plans to integrate humanoid machines into its industrial strategy, with South Africa among the potential partners.
After visitors walked 30,000 steps through the WAIC 2026 exhibition hall, four fundamental shifts in the robotics industry became evident.
The first change is the transformation of the hall from a platform for robot demonstrations into a full-fledged commercial market. Guests are no longer limited to watching robots dance, hit balls, or perform martial arts; they are starting to inquire about prices, delivery terms, agents, and application scenarios. Booths display rental rates starting from 100 yuan per day and 3,000 yuan per month, while international purchasing groups move through the hall holding signs that read 'Buyer Delegation.' Real purchase orders are being signed at the exhibition itself.
Secondly, motion control capabilities have reached a level of democratization. Previously, Unitree Robotics was recognized as exceptional for its ability to ensure smooth robot movement, but at WAIC 2026, Booster Robotics T1 demonstrated accurate scoring in soccer goals, Beijing Humanoid Innovation Center Tiangong 3.0 performed dance routines, and AGIBOT Q1 showed boxing movements. Numerous companies showcased smooth locomotion. Walking, running, and jumping have become basic requirements rather than a competitive advantage. As Technical Director of LimX Dynamics noted, control technologies are converging, and the gap between companies has significantly narrowed. Complex engineering, which previously distinguished leaders, is now a necessary minimum.
The third shift relates to the industry's transition from a universal approach to a concentration on vertical applications. Instead of claiming to create general-purpose humanoid robots, companies are now presenting their robots in specific, realistic scenarios. Kepler Robotics functions as a barista, Star Dynamics demonstrates assembly on a conveyor belt, YouiBot shows parts extraction in a factory, and Leju creates a store for retail tasks. Notably, many robots have stopped insisting on full anthropomorphism. Some use grippers instead of dexterous hands, while others replace legs with wheeled bases. Form now follows function, not anthropomorphic ideals.
The fourth change concerns the shift of core progress from visible presentations to invisible infrastructure. While flashy demonstrations attract attention on social media, true advancements are concentrated in models, data, sensory perception, and learning systems. The evolution of humanoid robots has reached a temporary equilibrium that holds potential for further differentiation. The winning companies will be those that can solve complex problems of reliable task execution, safety assurance, and cost-effective production, whereas those relying solely on motion control will face commoditization. The robotics exhibition at WAIC 2026 shows that the industry is entering a pragmatic phase, where the question has shifted from 'can robots move?' to 'can robots work?', and the answer to this will determine company survival in the transition from spectacle to service.
