According to the Fiscal Strategy for 2027–2029, transfers from the state budget of Uzbekistan to the State Medical Insurance Fund are expected to reach 38.1 trillion soms by 2027. This figure significantly exceeds the 1.3 trillion soms recorded in 2022.
During the period under review, the share of this fund among total budgetary transfers to targeted state funds will increase from 4.7% to 45.1%. This substantial growth is due to the expansion of state medical insurance mechanisms in all regions of the republic, as well as the expansion of medical services provided under guaranteed state healthcare.
The increase in medical insurance funding occurs against the backdrop of a general rise in healthcare expenditures. According to the functional classification of the state budget, healthcare spending is expected to rise from a projected 50.7 trillion soms in 2026 to 59.1 trillion soms in 2027, and then reach 77.5 trillion soms by 2029.
Overall, in 2027, total transfers to targeted state funds will amount to 3.4% of GDP, after which they will decrease to 3.1% of GDP by 2029. At the same time, the social sphere will remain the largest item of budget expenditure, accounting for 54% of all state expenditures during the 2027–2029 period.
According to the Fiscal Strategy for the period 2027–2029, prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, it is projected that the average pension amount in Uzbekistan will reach 1.8 million soums in 2027. This figure exceeds the level of 1.7 million soums recorded in 2026.
It is expected that the number of citizens receiving pensions may increase by 165 thousand, reaching a total of 4.592 million people. It is projected that the Pension Fund's expenditures in 2027 will amount to 95.7 trillion soums, which is 11.1% more than expected in 2026. The growth in these expenditures is partly due to the increase in the number of pensioners.
It is planned that the fund's income will increase by 14%, reaching 73.8 trillion soums. The main source of revenue remains the social tax, which is forecast to bring in 71.4 trillion soums. To cover a possible deficit and ensure timely payments from the republican budget, 23 trillion soums are planned to be allocated, corresponding to the 2026 level.
Medium-term forecasts show a further increase in the number of pension recipients: 4.76 million people are expected in 2028, and 4.94 million in 2029. Accordingly, the average pension amount is forecasted at 1.9 million soums in 2028 and 2.1 million soums in 2029. By 2029, the fund's total expenditures may rise to 119.4 trillion soums.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance warns that without implementing reforms, the dependence of the pension system on state financing during the 2027–2029 period will remain high. Key problems noted include informal employment, which limits the fund's income base, and the existence of social tax benefits for certain legal entities.
To improve coverage by the pension system, it is proposed to gradually transition self-employed individuals who currently do not pay social tax to paying it. Additionally, citizens with official earnings may be given opportunities to voluntarily pay social tax for non-working family members to build their service record. Furthermore, the possibility of gradually abolishing and limiting the provision of new social tax benefits is being considered.
As of June 1, there were over 4.35 million pension recipients in Uzbekistan. These categories include about 3.6 million people receiving old-age pensions, 484.5 thousand receiving disability pensions, and another 260.6 thousand due to loss of breadwinner. Overall, the average pension amount in the country was 1.58 million soums, but as of July 1, this figure increased by an average of 7%. In the capital, Tashkent, the average pension amount was significantly higher—2.16 million soums.
