The seasonal cloud map of India currently shows the entire country covered in white, creating the impression that clouds are hanging over all of India. According to satellite images from INSAT-3DR by ISRO and data from IMD, white or bright areas indicate dense and massive clouds. These clouds either strongly block sunlight or have very cold upper parts, suggesting high, moisture-laden clouds.
In June, the monsoon was quite weak and delayed. Cloud cover in many states was low, and rainfall activity decreased, causing concern among farmers due to the threat of drought. However, by mid-July, the situation changed drastically: the monsoon trough became active.
A strong flow of moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal has begun, which explains the extensive white coverage on the map. Meteorologists call this a new active phase of the monsoon, which promises heavy rains, thunderstorms, and an increase in monsoon strength.
According to IMD forecasts, active monsoon conditions are expected in northwestern and northeastern India over the next 4-5 days. Extreme or heavy rain is predicted for July 21 in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, and Meghalaya. Moderate or widespread precipitation is expected in northwestern India until July 24 in Jammu and Kashmir-Ladakh. A similar situation will persist in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until July 26. Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, and Punjab can expect good rains until July 23. In eastern Rajasthan, rains are intensifying from July 23 to July 26.
Additionally, there is a possibility of isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds (40-50 km/h). In Central India, including Chhattisgarh, Eastern Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha, rain is possible until July 26. A warning for heavy rains has been issued in Eastern India for Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal. In the northeast, continuous rains are expected in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, and other states. In West India, rains will intensify in the Konkan-Goa region, Central Maharashtra, and Gujarat. Nevertheless, in South India, in the West Central and Southern Peninsula, rains remain moderate. In some parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, only localized precipitation is expected.
The weakness of the monsoon circulation in June was caused by the southward shift of the western jet stream, which suppressed the easterly jet stream in the upper layers of the atmosphere and halted cloud formation. Now the situation has changed: the position of the monsoon trough has strengthened over North India, increasing the inflow of moisture. Both the Arabian Sea branch and the Bay of Bengal branch are active, leading to increased cloud cover and the start of a new phase.
These changes are a relief for farmers, as after concerns about drought in June, the filling of water bodies, water supply to crops, and stimulation of agricultural activities are now expected. However, there are also risks associated with heavy rainfall: the danger of landslides in mountainous regions, flooding in rivers, and inundation in urban areas increases. Therefore, IMD has issued special warnings for various states.
The monsoon strength will be maintained in North and East India in the coming days. Strong or very heavy rains are possible in some areas around July 22-24. After this, on July 25-26, precipitation may slightly weaken, but overall this July period is more active than usual. Drought conditions may persist in South and West Central India due to less rainfall. Meteorologists note that the whiteness on the map is not just an image but an indicator of the state of the monsoon system. When cloud cover exceeds 60% and deep convective clouds increase, the monsoon is considered strong. This is a positive sign for the 2026 monsoon season, although the distribution remains uneven. This new phase demonstrates the traditional power of the monsoon. The whiteness on the map does not carry a threat, but news of rain and relief. Nevertheless, balance is necessary, as in areas where rain is beneficial, there is still a lack of precipitation in some areas. The meteorological service is conducting constant monitoring and will issue updates according to future forecasts.
The state of Rio Grande do Sul has been placed under the maximum alert level for precipitation in the country in the coming days. According to Inmet, parts of the state are under a red warning due to the high volumes of rain projected between Tuesday, the 21st, and Wednesday, the 22nd.
The arrival of a cold front across Southern Brazil is altering climatic conditions in various locations. While some regions may expect storms and strong winds, others maintain low humidity and dry weather. The combination of low-pressure zones with the advance of this cold front significantly increases instability over Southern Brazil, with the greatest impact expected in Rio Grande do Sul.
In this state, intense rain and potential for thunderstorms accompanied by hail are forecast. The most significant accumulations are expected in municipalities such as São Borja, Santo Ângelo, Ijuí, Santa Maria, Santa Cruz do Sul, Porto Alegre, and Pelotas. In other areas of Rio Grande do Sul, the orange alert remains active for storms.
The bad weather also affects areas of Santa Catarina located near the border with Rio Grande do Sul. Additionally, western and south-central Paraná face forecasts of strong winds due to the influence of the Low-Level Jet (JBN).
The main warnings issued include: red alert for large volumes of rain in Rio Grande do Sul; possibility of thunderstorms with hail in both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina; strong winds forecast for Paraná, Santa Catarina, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul; and the advance of the cold front on Wednesday, which will expand the zones of instability.
The climate system is not limited to the South. In the Northeast, rain persists along the coastal strip on Tuesday and moves inland the following day. Yellow alerts remain in effect for intense rains between the coast of Bahia and Sergipe, as well as between Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte.
In the North Region, rain showers continue to occur in Amazonas, northern Pará, Amapá, Roraima, and western Acre. For Wednesday, these rains are expected to reach all of Acre and advance into northern and western Rondônia.
Not all of the national territory will be affected by rain. Mato Grosso, Goiás, Federal District, Tocantins, and certain areas of Rondônia, Pará, Piauí, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul remain under yellow alert due to low humidity.
In the Southeast, the weather remains stable in most of the region. The only exception is south-central São Paulo, which may experience increased cloudiness and isolated rainfall as the cold front approaches. In Minas Gerais, mornings remain cool, but without risk of frost.
Residents in the areas under alert are advised to monitor the evolution of meteorological conditions in the coming days. Rio Grande do Sul continues to be the region of greatest concern, given the expectation of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and the possibility of hail during the period.
According to the Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan, on July 22, Tashkent is expected to have variable cloudiness and changing weather conditions, with no precipitation forecasted. A wind of 3-8 meters per second will blow from the west, and in some places, the wind speed may increase to 12-14 meters per second accompanied by dust storms. At night, the temperature will be 23-25 degrees, and during the day—32-34 degrees.
In Karakalpakstan and Khorezm region, variable cloudiness and changing weather without precipitation are expected. The wind will blow from the east at a speed of 7-12 m/s. Nighttime temperatures will be 20-25 degrees, and daytime temperatures—30-35 degrees.
In Bukhara and Navoi regions, the weather will also be changeable, with no precipitation forecast. The wind from the east will blow at a speed of 7-12 m/s. Nighttime temperatures will be 20-25 degrees, and daytime temperatures—32-37 degrees.
In Tashkent, Syrdarya, Jizzakh, and Samarkand regions, the weather will be changeable, with no precipitation. The wind, blowing from the west, will change direction and start blowing from the east at a speed of 7-12 m/s. Nighttime temperatures are expected to be 20-25 degrees, and daytime temperatures—30-35 degrees.
In Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya regions, the weather will be changeable, with no precipitation. The wind, blowing from the west, will also change direction and start blowing from the east at a speed of 7-12 m/s. In some areas, the wind speed may increase to 13-18 m/s, and in several places—up to 20-22 m/s. Nighttime temperatures will be 22-27 degrees, and daytime temperatures—34-39 degrees.
In Andijan, Namangan, and Fergana regions, the weather will change, and short-term moderate rains are possible. The wind from the west will blow at a speed of 5-10 m/s. Nighttime temperatures are expected to be 20-25 degrees, and daytime temperatures—28-33 degrees.
In the mountainous and hilly areas of the republic, the weather will change, and short-term moderate rains are possible. There is a risk of floods in the Tashkent, Andijan, Namangan, and Fergana regions. The wind from the west will blow at a speed of 7-12 m/s, and in some places, an increase up to 13-18 m/s is expected. Nighttime temperatures will be 12-17 degrees, and daytime temperatures—20-25 degrees.
The monsoon season in Uttar Pradesh has once again shown its power. After issuing red alert warnings for 13 districts, orange alerts for 30, and yellow alerts for 25, meteorologists advised residents to remain highly vigilant over the next 24 hours.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributes the onset of heavy and very heavy rains in large parts of the state to moisture inflow from the Bay of Bengal and the strengthening of the monsoon current in North India. Meteorologists predict that some areas may receive excessive rainfall in a short period, creating a risk of flooding, rising river levels, traffic disruption, and inundation of low-lying areas. Furthermore, there is a persistent threat of thunderstorms and lightning strikes.
The IMD has issued a red alert for districts such as Balrampur, Shravasti, Bahraich, Lakhimur-Khiri, Kasanj, Eta, Rampur, Bareli, Pilibit, Shahjahanpur, Sambal, and Badaun, as well as surrounding territories. According to meteorological service data, extremely heavy rains are possible in these locations. Local administrations have been instructed to be on high alert, and the public is advised to avoid unnecessary travel and monitor the latest updates from the meteorological service.
The meteorological service forecasts heavy or very heavy rains in 30 districts, including Ghazipur, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia, Dewaria, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Maharajganj, Siddharthnagar, Gonda, Sitapur, Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Kannauj, Kanpur Dehat, Barabanki, Ayodhya, Ambedkar Nagar, Saharanpur, Hathras, Agra, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Itawa, Ariya, Bidwar, Amroha, Muradabad, and Jalaun. These areas are expected to experience localized flooding, road closures, and difficulties in rural movement.
A yellow warning for heavy rainfall has been issued for 25 districts: Prayagraj, Pratapgarh, Sonbhadra, Mirzapur, Chandauli, Varanasi, Sant Ravidas Nagar (Bhadohi), Jaunpur, Kanpur Nagar, Unnao, Lucknow, Raebareli, Amethi, Sultanpur, Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Hamirpur, Mahoba, and Jhansi, as well as Lalitpur. Residents of these areas are advised to closely monitor changing weather conditions and take the lightning strike warning seriously.
According to the Regional Meteorological Centre in Lucknow, moist air masses are constantly moving from the Bay of Bengal towards Uttar Pradesh, accompanied by the strengthening of the monsoon current in North India. This has led to the onset of dense cloud cover and intense rainfall in most parts of the state. Meteorologists suggest that abundant rain with thunderstorms is expected in most districts of Eastern and Western Uttar Pradesh on Monday and Tuesday. Although the intensity of rainfall may decrease, the probability of heavy rain remains until July 24.
The IMD has also warned of the risk of lightning during rainfall. Farmers, outdoor workers, and rural residents are advised to exercise extra caution. Experts recommend avoiding being under trees, in open fields, or near electric poles during a thunderstorm, with moving to a sturdy building being the safest action when thunder is heard. The ongoing rains will also affect temperatures: according to the meteorological service, the maximum temperature is expected to remain below normal for the next two to three days, bringing relief from the heat and humidity of recent days. However, where the rain stops, slight mugginess may persist due to high humidity.
Despite the rains, the total rainfall during the monsoon season in Uttar Pradesh is still below normal. The IMD recorded 204.2 millimeters of precipitation, while the normal amount is 266.2 millimeters, indicating a deficit of 23 percent across the state. Eastern Uttar Pradesh recorded a deficit of 33 percent, while Western Uttar Pradesh received 214 millimeters against a normal of 226.8 millimeters, representing about a 6 percent deficit. Scientists believe that if the rains continue at the same pace, the rainfall deficit could be significantly compensated for.
The meteorological service strongly recommends that residents in areas with red and orange alerts refrain from unnecessary travel and avoid visiting rivers, canals, and flooded areas. Drivers should exercise increased caution, and it is best to stop in a safe place during heavy rain. Farmers are also advised to regularly receive fresh weather information while working in the fields. District administrations have been instructed to be prepared for potential flooding, falling trees, power outages, and other emergencies.
The meteorological service emphasizes that the next 24 hours are critical for Uttar Pradesh, as extreme rainfall is possible in several districts over a short period. In such situations, people should rely only on official information from the meteorological service and administration, avoiding rumors. Currently, signs indicate full monsoon activity, and rain is likely to continue in most regions of Uttar Pradesh in the coming days.
