Original Equipment Manufacturers' (OEM) revenue is expected to grow by 22–29 percent in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. This growth is driven by high demand for vehicles, increased exports, and a trend towards product premiumization. However, higher costs for raw materials and freight are likely to lead to reduced margins.
Brokerage firms predict a strong quarter in terms of revenue but a weaker one in terms of profitability. Automaker revenue is expected to grow by 22–29% year-on-year, while auto parts supplier revenue is projected to grow by 17–21%. The growth is supported by broad demand for automobiles, price increases, premiumization, exports, and the weakening rupee.
Sales of passenger vehicles (PV) are forecast to grow by 23–26%, two-wheelers by 14–19%, and commercial vehicles (CV) by 14–19%, according to estimates from the brokerage industry and retail registration data from Vahan. Passenger vehicles benefited from SUVs, premium models, new releases, and the recovery in demand for small cars, while scooters outperformed motorcycles, and the adoption of electric two-wheelers accelerated.
Commercial transport benefited from fleet replacement, infrastructure development, mining, and e-commerce. Nevertheless, fleet utilization growth was constrained by rising diesel prices and geopolitical turmoil. Demand for tractors remained stable, supported by agricultural conditions and reservoir levels.
EBITDA growth is expected to lag behind revenue growth as rising prices for steel, aluminum, copper, rubber, oil-related commodities, and freight squeeze margins. Nuvama forecasts a cumulative EBITDA growth of 10% against a 22% revenue increase, while profit after tax (PAT) growth is expected to be uneven and generally slower than overall revenue growth.
Tensions in West Asia have increased export costs and execution risks, but this has not led to a significant weakening of overall export demand during the quarter.
Among PV manufacturers, Tata Motors' strong domestic business is expected to offset the weakness of its Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) division. Nuvama forecasts a 56% revenue growth for Tata in India, but a 9% revenue decline for JLR in pounds, limiting consolidated revenue growth to approximately 8%. Estimates from Elara and HDFC Securities suggest growth around 5%. Supply constraints, raw material inflation, and declining operating leverage are expected to squeeze JLR's margins, with HDFC Securities forecasting an EBIT margin of 2.3%. Consolidated PAT could fall by 27–80% depending on estimates.
Mahindra & Mahindra's revenue is projected to grow by 21–26% due to increased sales of SUVs, EVs, exports, and tractors, although margins may shrink by 30–170 basis points due to raw material inflation and the increasing share of EVs. PAT forecasts range from flat to a 17% increase.
Maruti Suzuki is expected to lead among major PV manufacturers, showing revenue growth of 35–38%, supported by domestic volumes, exports, small cars, and foreign exchange earnings. However, Nuvama, PL Capital, and HDFC Securities forecast a PAT drop of 8–11%, while Elara expects a 32% decline.
Hyundai Motor India is expected to show the weakest results among PV manufacturers: revenue is expected to remain flat or decline by 2%, margins will contract by about 400 basis points, and PAT will fall by 38–40%.
Two-wheeler manufacturers are expected to perform well. Bajaj Auto's revenue is forecasted to grow by 30–36%, and PAT by 25–34%, driven by exports, 125cc and above motorcycles, and improved EV profitability. TVS Motor may report revenue growth of 31–37% and PAT growth of 23–35% due to strong sales of scooters, motorcycles, EVs, and exports. Bajaj's margin is expected to remain relatively stable or increase by 60 basis points, while TVS Motor and Eicher Motors may see stable or moderately reduced margins.
Hero MotoCorp's revenue may grow by 28–30%, but PAT growth could be limited to 8–20% due to margin compression from raw material costs, promotions, and EV investments. HDFC Securities expects Ather Energy's revenue to grow by approximately 90%, although the company is likely to continue operating at a loss.
In the commercial vehicle segment, Tata Motors' revenue is forecast to grow by 19–22%, but EBITDA is expected to remain largely unchanged, and a margin contraction of 200–235 basis points could lead to a PAT drop of 7–13%. Ashok Leyland is also expected to show double-digit revenue growth, although most brokers predict margin pressure.
Auto parts supplier revenue is projected at 17–21%. Choice Institutional Equities (CIE) estimates revenue, EBITDA, and PAT growth at 21.2%, 16.2%, and 21.8%, respectively. Sona BLW, ASK Automotive, Motherson Wiring, and Minda Corporation are expected to outperform expectations, while Apollo Tyres, CEAT, and Balkrishna Industries face the strongest profitability pressure due to commodity prices.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) reported that the revenue of its petrochemical (O2C) segment increased by 30% compared to the previous year, reaching ₹201,803 crore for the June quarter of fiscal year 2027. This growth was driven by a sharp rise in crude oil prices, although it was partially offset by a decrease in production volume intended for sale.
The average price of Dated Brent crude oil in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 was $104.5 per barrel, which is $36.7 higher compared to last year. This increase occurred due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted supplies of approximately 13 million barrels of crude oil per day and heightened tension in the global oil market.
Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) in the O2C segment grew by 17%, amounting to ₹17,010 crore. The growth was supported by stronger transportation fuel prices and favorable margins in the refining segment. Nevertheless, profits were affected by rising raw material costs and reduced production due to planned maintenance.
Mukesh D Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director, noted that the O2C segment demonstrated strong results thanks to historically high prices for middle distillates and improved petrochemical performance in refining, despite the challenging global energy situation and supply chain disruptions. He also emphasized that the company ensured adequate availability of essential fuels and materials in the domestic market.
The performance of the O2C segment was also supported by the diversification of the feedstock basket, efficient placement of products in deficit markets, and favorable ethylene cracking economics. These factors helped, despite various obstacles limiting profit realization, including high crude oil premiums in physical markets, as well as increased freight and insurance costs.
The company added that to protect domestic consumers, RIL redirected propane and butane to increase liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) output and kept retail fuel prices stable, which resulted in foregone revenues from fuel retail. Furthermore, the introduction of the Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on diesel, gasoline (MS), and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) negatively impacted the margin of the domestic business.
During the June quarter of fiscal year 2027, domestic demand for polymers decreased by 21.7% compared to the previous year. Demand for polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride fell by 30%, 20%, and 8%, respectively. This decline was attributed to supply disruptions due to the crisis in West Asia and reduced operational capacity of local producers due to issues with raw material and fuel availability. Higher product prices also contributed to needs-based purchasing and weakened shipments in key end-use sectors.
Regarding the margin environment for transportation fuels, RIL reported that prices for middle distillates sharply rose in April 2026 following the outbreak of conflict in West Asia, before stabilizing in May and June 2026.
During the quarter, the company diversified its feedstock basket by increasing purchases from Russia and Latin America, reducing dependence on Arabian Gulf crude oil. The company also supplied more volumes of LPG to Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) as per the Indian Government's directive on LPG control, leading to a reduction in alkylate and petrochemical production.
As for the oil and gas segment, its revenue for the June quarter grew by 3.2% compared to the previous year, reaching ₹3,298 crore. This was a result of higher revenue from KG-D6 crude and condensate, as well as favorable exchange rate movements. The company also noted that increased production and revenue from gas methane in coal seams contributed to the growth, although this was partially offset by lower production and revenue from KG-D6 gas.
Overall EBITDA in the oil and gas segment remained stable year-on-year, supported by a significant contribution from improved revenue from KG-D6 liquid hydrocarbons. Regarding gas methane operations in coal seams, the second phase of the multilateral well campaign continues to increase production, and 31 out of the planned 40 wells have been drilled to date.
