According to the Fiscal Strategy calculated for the period from 2027 to 2029, an increase is expected in both the size of pensions and the number of recipients in the pension system of Uzbekistan in the coming years.
Forecasts on Pensions and Recipients
The document prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Finance forecasts that in 2027, the average monthly pension amount nationwide will be about 1.8 million soms. If the average pension was expected to be at the level of 1.7 million soms in 2026, then in 2027 this figure will increase by approximately 100 thousand soms, corresponding to a growth rate of almost 5.9% based on aggregate data. The strategy does not specify the exact percentage increase in pensions themselves.
The number of pensioners will also grow. According to the Fiscal Strategy, by 2027, the number of pensioners may reach 4 million 592 thousand people, which is an increase of approximately 165 thousand people compared to 2026. Medium-term forecasts show a steady growth in this indicator: 4.76 million people are expected in 2028, and 4.94 million people in 2029.
Further Growth and Financial Burden
Simultaneously with the increase in the number of pensioners, a gradual increase in the average pension amount is forecasted. Calculations show that in 2028, the average pension will be 1.9 million soms, and in 2029—about 2.1 million soms.
The increase in the number of pension recipients leads to an increase in the Pension Fund's expenses. According to the strategy, the fund's expenses in 2027 will amount to 95.7 trillion soms, which is 11.1% more than in 2026, and could reach 119.4 trillion soms by 2029. An increase in the fund's revenues is also forecasted: in 2027, they will amount to 73.8 trillion soms, representing a growth of almost 14%. The main part of these revenues, 71.4 trillion soms, is planned to be formed through social taxes.
Need for Budgetary Support
Nevertheless, the fund's resources will be insufficient to fully cover pension payments. Therefore, a transfer from the republican budget amounting to 23 trillion soms has been planned for timely financing of pensions, which was also set for 2026.
Reform Proposals
The Fiscal Strategy notes that without practical reforms, the dependence of the pension system on the state budget will remain high. Experts cite the main reasons for the high level of informal employment, social tax benefits for some legal entities, and the limited base of social tax payers. In this regard, the government puts forward a number of proposals. Among them are the gradual inclusion of self-employed individuals who currently do not pay social tax, providing the opportunity to form work experience through voluntary payment of social tax for family members of citizens who are not working but have official income, as well as limiting new social tax benefits and gradually revising existing ones.
Current Situation at the Beginning of 2026
As of June 1, 2026, more than 4.35 million pensioners are registered in the country. Of these, about 3.6 million are age pensioners, 484.5 thousand are disability pensioners, and 260.6 thousand are survivors' pensioners. During this period, the average pension was 1.58 million soms. From July 1, 2026, pensions were increased by an average of 7%. By region, the highest average pension was recorded in the city of Tashkent, amounting to 2.16 million soms.
The forecasts established in the Fiscal Strategy demonstrate positive dynamics in the pension system. However, alongside the increase in pension amounts, the financial burden on the state budget is also growing. Thus, ensuring the long-term stability of the pension system, reducing informal employment, and expanding the social tax base become some of the most important tasks for the coming years.