July 19, 15:00

Economists forecast June CPI inflation trends, pointing to fuel price impact

Experts warn that an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected in June, which will be announced by Stats SA on Wednesday.

Leading Economists' Forecasts

Johann El, Chief Economist at PSG, forecasts that overall inflation will rise from 4.5% in May to approximately 4.7% in June, reflecting a monthly increase of about 0.5%. He noted that the main reason for this rise will again be higher gasoline prices, following an increase of 143 cents per liter during June. Meanwhile, food inflation should remain moderate, and most consumer goods inflation remains very low, as observed over the past year.

El added that although 4.7% is above the Reserve Bank's desired level, it should be considered that much of this increase is due to fuel prices. He expects inflation to start declining to approximately 4.3% in July (after a decrease in gasoline prices by 201 cents per liter), remain at this level in August, and then approach 4.0% by the end of the year. On average, he forecasts inflation to be around 4.0% in 2026 before falling to 3.5% in 2027.

Professor Simphiwe Madikizela, an economist at the University of South Africa (Unisa), believes that South Africa's CPI for June 2026, which Statistics South Africa will publish on July 22, 2026, will remain at around 4.5% year-on-year, with the consensus forecast unchanged from May's 4.5%. From an economic perspective, he expects the overall CPI to be between 4.4% and 4.6% year-on-year, with the consensus centered on 4.5%, and monthly inflation likely remaining moderate at 0.3%–0.4%. Core inflation is expected to remain relatively controlled, indicating that underlying inflationary pressure is still manageable.

FNB economists in their weekly expectations report stated that the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hold a meeting next week amid rising inflation expectations, easing global inflationary pressures, and persistent fragility in domestic growth. The key development since the last meeting has been the deterioration of inflation expectations. The latest BER inflation expectations survey from the Bureau of Economic Research showed a broad increase across key forecast horizons. Average expectations among analysts, businesses, and trade unions rose from 3.6% to 4.4% for 2026, and expectations increased to 4.2% for 2027, 3.9% for 2028, and 4.1% over the next five years.

iol.co.zaJuly 20, 11:13

Artificial Intelligence Complicates Fraud Detection Targeting South Africans and Businesses

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming fraud methods as criminals use increasingly convincing fake identities, cloned voices, and manipulated communications to deceive residents of South Africa and commercial entities.

Rise of Digital Fraud in South Africa

According to a TransUnion report, South Africa demonstrated the highest level of suspicious digital fraud among analyzed African countries in 2025. Furthermore, 3% of transactions involving South African consumers were flagged as potentially fraudulent.

The report warns that AI is accelerating both the scale and sophistication of fraudulent schemes, allowing perpetrators to create more plausible scams targeting both consumers and businesses.

Vulnerability of Trust and New Threats

Amrita Reddy, Senior Director of Fraud Product Management at TransUnion Africa, noted that fraudsters in South Africa succeed where trust already exists, particularly within major digital platforms where consumers reasonably expect security and legitimacy. She emphasized that criminals exploit both consumer trust and evolving technologies.

The South African Banking Risk Information Centre (SABRIC) also issued a warning that fraudsters are using AI tools to impersonate bank employees, create fake applications, and manipulate digital platforms to steal funds.

SABRIC CEO, Nishal Mewallall, previously stated that AI-driven schemes have reached such a level of complexity that even the most vigilant users can fall for the trick. He advised: 'AI-driven schemes have become so advanced that even the most vigilant person can be deceived. Criminals can fake voices, emails, and even entire applications. The only way to stay safe is to verify before trusting.'

Risks for Businesses and Solutions

Businesses are also facing increasing risks, particularly from fraud related to fake suppliers, changes in banking details, and counterfeit invoices. In response to this threat, Cape Town-based technology company SOTRU has launched a platform designed to help businesses verify suppliers and payment data during transactions.

The company uses digital credentials, identity checks, and bank account verification to help enterprises ensure they are dealing with the correct supplier. SOTRU explained that many companies only verify suppliers at the beginning of a relationship, whereas fraud often occurs later when criminals disguise themselves as vetted partners and alter payment information.

The company, formerly known as VERA, reported launching the platform with over 40 active beta users and attracting interest from businesses in seven countries. Jack Scott-King, co-founder of SOTRU, stated: 'The biggest fraud risk today arises when a verified identity disappears from the communication channel where transactions are finalized.' He added that the company's goal is to 'strengthen the local ecosystem based on the confirmation of our early beta clients.'

business-standard.comJuly 20, 11:12

Tata Power receives approval from SECI to supply 324 MW from project in Maharashtra

Tata Power announced on Monday that it has received a Letter of Award (LoA) from the Solar Energy Corporation of India Ltd (SECI) to supply 324 MW of electricity from its 1000 MW Pumped Hydro Storage Project (PSP) located in Bhivpuri, Maharashtra state.

Contract Award Conditions

This project was selected as part of a global competitive tender conducted by SECI based on tariffs. The tender aimed to secure 1500 MW / 12,000 MWh of electricity from planned pumped hydro storage projects in the country. The contract was concluded through an electronic reverse auction system.

Project Details and Timelines

The project involves a 40-year Power Purchase Agreement (PSP) and is scheduled to be commissioned by 2029. It will be implemented under a Build, Own, Operate (BOO) model and will provide energy storage for 8 hours, ensuring stable power supply during peak demand periods. The energy will be transmitted via the Inter-State Transmission System (ISTS) to the South Kalamb Central Transmission Utility (CTU) at 765/400 kV.

Strategic Importance for the Company

The award of this contract strengthens Tata Power's position in the long-term energy storage segment. This segment is crucial for integrating India's rapidly growing solar and wind generation into the main grid, as it allows surplus daytime generation to be converted into reliable, dispatchable energy available around the clock. This decision aligns with Tata Power's overall clean energy strategy and its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2045.

Company Portfolio

The company's clean and green portfolio now stands at 17.5 GW, including a pipeline of 9.6 GW in development, of which 2.8 GW is dedicated to pumped storage. Tata Power Company Ltd, a vertically integrated energy company and part of the Tata Group, has formed a diversified portfolio across the entire energy value chain. The company's total operational and planned capacity exceeds 26 GW, including approximately 17.5 GW of clean and green energy (including projects under construction) and about 8.9 GW of thermal generation, ensuring a balanced and sustainable energy mix.

uzdaily.uzJuly 20, 11:00

Uzbekistan and Kurdistan in Iraq Expand Agricultural Cooperation

The Minister of Agriculture of Uzbekistan, Ibrohim Abdurakhmonov, held a meeting with a delegation of business community representatives from the Kurdistan region of the Republic of Iraq.

Discussion of Partnership

The parties discussed opportunities to deepen interaction in the agricultural sector, establish long-term partnerships, and implement joint projects. The main focus was on developing trade in agricultural products, strengthening export and import ties, and expanding contacts between entrepreneurs from both countries.

Areas of Cooperation

Participants reviewed the potential for more effective utilization of existing opportunities and increasing volumes of mutual trade. Prospects for cooperation were discussed in the areas of fruit and vegetable cultivation, potato farming, animal husbandry, food industry, agricultural product processing, and scientific research.

Infrastructure and Investments

Furthermore, proposals were considered for launching joint investment projects, implementing modern technologies, and developing interaction between private sector representatives. Participants particularly noted the importance of improving logistics chains and developing modern trade infrastructure, believing this would strengthen economic and trade ties between Uzbekistan and the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

Ibrohim Abdurakhmonov confirmed Uzbekistan's readiness for further expansion of international cooperation in the field of agriculture and supported initiatives aimed at forming mutually beneficial partnerships. At the end of the meeting, the parties agreed to continue joint work on developing bilateral cooperation, practical implementation of common projects, and activating interaction in various areas of the agro-industrial complex.