Despite having no domestic gas resources whatsoever, Morocco has presented the African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) project to the world, previously known as the Niger-Morocco Gas Pipeline. This project was conceived as a way to supply Europe with gas after it passes through a dozen countries in West Africa and the Sahel.
Geopolitical Context of the Project
Morocco's success in the media campaign is due to two factors: the country possesses virtually no domestic gas reserves and lacks traditions of hydrocarbon exploration or trade. Nevertheless, it managed to present a multi-billion dollar project with serious geopolitical implications, positioning it as an alternative to the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), which connects Nigeria to Algeria via Niger.
The situation intensified after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, forcing Europe to seek new supply sources. Before the war, Russian pipeline gas accounted for about 40 percent of the bloc's share, but the EU began moving towards banning Russian imports by 2027. Algeria was already partially filling this deficit by supplying nearly a fifth of the pipeline gas to the EU, second only to Norway.
Project Presentation and Doubts
Although Morocco did not have its own gas, it could offer a route, and the Ministry of Energy presented the pipeline as a means of transforming the kingdom into a 'major corridor connecting Europe, Africa, and the Atlantic basin.' Moroccan authorities invested significant funds in this project, calling it the 'new energy foundation of the continent.' For many years, this issue was discussed through official and unofficial diplomacy, while businessmen and lobbyists worked to attract investors and clients.
Morocco even announced the 'finalization of the pipeline route' and reported a package of contracts and agreements related to the project in July 2025. One Moroccan media outlet predicted that 'the decisive stage of the colossal Niger-Morocco gas project connection has been reached: agreements signed, extensive technical studies conducted, investors mobilized, and the first Moroccan section will soon be launched.' However, economic logic, technical data, geography, geopolitics, and common sense indicated that the Moroccan project would not be able to compete with the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, which will deliver the same Nigerian gas to Algeria via Niger, and then to Europe via existing Algerian pipelines.
Expert Analysis and Competition
According to Ali Aissaoui, a former research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, four conditions are necessary for implementing a pipeline of this scale: the presence of resources (which he considers potentially abundant with timely development), favorable market prospects, economic viability (depending on volumes, infrastructure costs, and prices), and perhaps most importantly, a stable and cooperative political and diplomatic environment among all participating countries.
Nevertheless, a clash between the AAGP and TSGP is unlikely. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced on February 16 that work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline would begin after Ramadan, meeting with his Nigerian counterpart Abdurrahman Chiani. Following this, the ministers of energy from Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger held the fifth meeting of the project steering committee in Algiers on June 3. The next day, construction of the Algerian section officially started in the southern province of Adrar, in the presence of three ministers and the heads of their national energy companies, effectively marking the end of hopes for the Moroccan project.
Route and Cost Comparison
The AAGP is designed to start in Nigeria, move along the Atlantic coast westward to Liberia, then turn north and terminate in Morocco. Overall, the project covers 13 countries along the West African coast, including the disputed territory of Western Sahara, via a hybrid sea and land route spanning approximately 6,900 km. The TSGP, conversely, connects Nigeria directly to Algeria via Niger and is slightly over 4,000 km long, passing through only three countries.
Another advantage of the TSGP is its cost. It is expected to cost $10–13 billion, utilizing existing gas infrastructure in Algeria and Nigeria. While the Algerian section is under construction and the Nigerien section is planned to start in early 2027, the AAGP will require approximately $25 billion, making it roughly twice as expensive. Furthermore, an expert consulting the MEE noted that the AAGP is unlikely to become operational before 2040 due to the complexity of the project.
Morocco argues that the AAGP can supply the population of a dozen countries up to Morocco, demonstrating the kingdom's commitment to developing the vast territory of West Africa and the Sahel, which suffers from chronic poverty. However, the question arises: if each of these countries consumes gas from Nigeria, how much will remain at the end of the line, considering that Morocco itself will also use it? Ultimately, the decision will depend on the interests of Nigeria, which aims to send large volumes of gas, about 30 billion cubic meters per year, to the European market, which risks being permanently cut off from Russian gas and forced to rely on more expensive liquefied natural gas.
