Experts warn: water shortage threatens crops and drinking water supply in Central Asia

Experts predict that water scarcity will lead to a decrease in agricultural production volumes, which, in turn, will increase pressure on food prices. UN studies indicate the possibility of a reduction in the volume of water in the main sources of Central Asia—the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins—by up to 15% in recent years.

This could trigger a 11% reduction in the region's gross domestic product, and the annual economic damage could reach $2 billion.

Forecasts and causes of the deficit

Javlon Vakhabov, Director of the Central Asian Institute of International Relations, notes that by 2040, the water demand in some countries of the region may triple.

Ilhom Begmatov, head of the Department of Mechanization and Irrigation at Tashkent State University, emphasized that one of the main causes of the problem is global warming. He reported that over the last hundred years, the average air temperature has risen by 1.5 degrees, causing accelerated glacier melt, reduced precipitation, and depletion of water reserves.

In Uzbekistan, 4.3 million hectares of land are irrigated, and the country uses 51–53 billion cubic meters of water annually, with almost 91% of this volume directed to agriculture. Consequently, the strongest impact of water scarcity is felt in the agrarian sector.

Farmers need artificial irrigation systems to ensure stable harvests, but the reduction in water flow may increase the costs of growing crops such as cotton, grains, fruits, and vegetables.

State of glaciers and water resources

Tohir Majitov, head of the public association 'Suvchi' in Uzbekistan, noted that previously glaciers recovered after melting naturally, but this balance has been disrupted over the last decade. According to him, about 40% of the largest Fedchenko Glacier in Central Asia has melted, and the level of glaciers decreased by 50 meters between 1990 and 2005. More than 30% of the glaciers in Kyrgyzstan have also been lost.

45% of the region's glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan. Their rapid melting may initially create the appearance of increased water volume in rivers, but in the long term, it will lead to a decrease in water runoff and an increase in the risks of floods and droughts.

Drinking water supply problems

Andrey Petrov, senior researcher at the Research Institute of Irrigation and Water Problems of Uzbekistan, warned that by 2030, Central Asian countries may face a serious shortage of drinking water. The problem is already noticeable in several regions. Vadim Sokolov, head of the project implementation agency of the Oral Salvation Fund in Uzbekistan, reported that groundwater reserves are depleted in many regions of the country.

In particular, in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm region, more than 80% of drinking water is sourced from surface water. A reduction in river runoff may hinder the stable supply of drinking water to the populations of these areas. Sokolov recalled the period of water deficit in 2000–2001, when the region suffered significant economic losses, with the main blow falling on agriculture.

The situation is exacerbated by rapid population growth. If there were over 45 million people in Central Asia in 1991, the current population exceeds 85 million. During the same period, the area of irrigated land increased from 6 to more than 10 million hectares.

Measures for rational water use

To mitigate the effects of the deficit, Uzbekistan is implementing water-saving technologies such as drip and sprinkler irrigation, as well as laser leveling of lands. According to Vadim Sokolov, thanks to these measures, Uzbekistan has reduced its water intake by 10 billion cubic meters, or almost 25%, over the past five years.

Currently, 2.6 million hectares out of 4.3 million irrigated hectares are equipped with water-saving technologies. It is planned that by 2028, this figure will reach 3.5 million hectares, covering 80% of the country's irrigated lands with new technologies.

International cooperation in water resources

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have identified 10 key points along the Syr Darya for accurate water consumption monitoring, five of which are in Kazakhstan and the other five are in Uzbekistan. Automatic measurement and monitoring systems will be installed at these locations. Data exchange between the two states is planned in real-time, as is the modernization of transboundary hydraulic structures and joint management of facilities.

Shavkat Khamroev, Minister of Water Resources of Uzbekistan, stated that the parties have agreed on the channels and volumes through which water will be withdrawn and transported. Kazakhstan, for its part, plans to repair an irrigation network spanning 14.5 thousand kilometers, which could potentially reduce water consumption by 20%. Furthermore, Kazakhstan aims to implement water-saving technologies on 1.3 million hectares by 2030 and increase the share of treated water recycling from 13% to 28%.

Proposals for water resource management

According to Tohir Majitov's calculations, with efficient water use, the countries of Central Asia can expand irrigated land areas by another 2–3 million hectares and provide necessary resources for up to 100 million people. Achieving this goal requires the development of water diplomacy between states and the creation of a regional structure for fair water distribution.

Majitov proposed establishing a 'Committee for the Aral Sea' involving all Central Asian countries. In his opinion, such a structure would help use water effectively and ensure food security for the entire region.