Researchers are projecting that the current El Niño phenomenon could become the most intense ever documented. If these forecasts prove correct, the event could lead to record ocean temperatures, intensification of extreme weather in various parts of the globe, and an increased risk of humanitarian crises, especially in more vulnerable nations.
Zeke Hausfather, a researcher at Berkeley Earth and author of the IPCC's Seventh Assessment Report, points out that climate models assign about a 90% chance that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be the most powerful since reliable records began. The study suggests that temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean area could rise by approximately 3.6°C above average, far exceeding previous records. However, scientists warn that it is still premature to define all the effects of the phenomenon with exactness.
El Niño, which was officially declared on June 11, represents the warm phase of a natural climate cycle that unfolds over several years. This phenomenon is known for raising the global average temperature and promoting extreme events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves. According to projections from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the event is expected to rapidly evolve into a strong condition between July and September. Furthermore, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center estimates a probability greater than 80% that the phenomenon will reach the very strong category by the end of the year, positioning this El Niño among the largest ever observed.
Emily Black, Professor of Terrestrial Processes and Climate at the University of Reading and senior researcher at the UK's National Centre for Atmospheric Science, emphasizes the importance of these projections. She told Live Science that the forecasts are impressive. While acknowledging that El Niño predictions always carry uncertainties, she stresses that the high consensus among models and the already visible warming in the tropical Pacific require the scenario to be treated with great seriousness.
According to Black, an extremely strong El Niño considerably raises the chance of destructive weather events occurring. She highlights that a very strong El Niño would substantially alter the probabilities of harmful weather events in many parts of the world, with a special impact on the Global South and its livelihoods.
The International Rescue Committee has also expressed concern about the worsening of the phenomenon. The organization indicates that the predicted conditions could trigger severe droughts and floods in regions of East Africa and Asia, affecting highly vulnerable communities.
During the El Niño period, warmer waters accumulate in the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which modifies atmospheric circulation and shifts the jet stream southward. In the United States, this typically generates warmer and drier conditions in the Northeast, while increasing the risk of flooding on the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast. On a global scale, the additional warming of the oceans adds more heat to the atmosphere, compounding the temperature increase caused by anthropogenic climate change.
Black underlines that the current context makes the phenomenon even more alarming. She explains that although El Niño is a natural process, it is occurring on an already warmer planet. This is relevant because a strong El Niño releases heat and energy into an already warmed environment. However, she warns that the impacts cannot be attributed solely to El Niño or only to climate change; the two factors interact. El Niño can potentiate droughts in certain areas, floods in others, marine heatwaves, monsoon disruptions, and exceptionally high global temperatures. Climate change, in turn, makes heat extremes more severe and can intensify heavy rainfall, as a warmer atmosphere retains more moisture.
Hausfather reinforced the projections after an update to climate models in July. This analysis integrated 667 simulations from 14 different seasonal models. The results suggest not only a high probability that the phenomenon will be the most intense ever recorded but also that it may surpass the previous record by a notable margin. He stated that, with the July simulations, it seems that this year's El Niño has a high chance of being the strongest event since the beginning of reliable records, potentially being the strongest by a truly impressive margin.
NOAA defines El Niño conditions when the temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific region remains at least 0.5°C above the historical average, accompanied by changes in winds, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation. The phenomenon is classified as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. Events with temperatures exceeding 2°C above average informally receive the name 'super El Niño,' although this is not an official scientific classification. The July models indicate that the anomaly could exceed 3.5°C by the end of the year.
According to Hausfather, the median of the projections indicates a peak of about 3.6°C, which represents approximately 0.8°C above the record set during the 2015-2016 El Niño, when the anomaly reached 2.75°C. About 91% of the simulations indicate that the current event will surpass the 2015-2016 record.
Despite the robust projections, Black insists that the models are mere estimates and not guarantees. She stated that it is plausible for this to become a record-breaking El Niño, and recent forecasts make this possibility real, not distant. However, she advises caution when treating any probability estimate as a settled fact. She justifies this prudence by citing two points: first, the event has not yet reached its peak, and El Niños generally reach their maximum intensity closer to the end of the year; second, the definition of 'the strongest ever recorded' depends on the index, the dataset, and the reference used.
Intense El Niño episodes have generated significant consequences in various parts of the planet. The 2015-2016 event, for example, was linked to a record hurricane season in the Central North Pacific, as well as severe droughts in the Caribbean and Ethiopia, and exceptionally high global temperatures. If current projections materialize, the phenomenon could equal or surpass both this episode and the notorious super El Niño of 1877-1878, which occurred before modern records. This historical event likely contributed to an extreme drought that fueled the Great Famine of 1876 to 1878, resulting in the death of over 50 million people. Researchers, however, point out that this tragedy was exacerbated by colonial agricultural policies of the time, demonstrating that humanitarian crises arise from the combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors.
Even with the profound transformations that have occurred since the 19th century, experts warn that a super El Niño could still cause strong repercussions on global food systems. The concern is greater given that researchers point out that food insecurity is no longer limited to low-income countries, and climate change is putting pressure on agriculture in multiple regions. The climate cycle known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) alternates between the El Niño and La Niña phases every two to seven years, with a typical duration of nine to twelve months. According to Carbon Brief projections, 2026 should be the second hottest year ever recorded, and the strengthening of El Niño raises the probability of 2027 becoming the hottest year in history.
Black concludes that the record intensity of the phenomenon is secondary to its effects on the population. She states that even if the phenomenon does not set a new absolute record, its consequences can still be severe. Finally, she observes that these forecasts are worrying, but also useful, as they give societies time to anticipate potential impacts and act before the worst effects manifest.
The El Niño climate phenomenon continues to strengthen and has a high probability of becoming one of the most powerful events since the beginning of historical records. This projection was released on Thursday (9) by the United States Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which forecasts that the peak intensity will occur between October and December.
El Niño is defined by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming triggers changes in atmospheric pressure patterns and winds, affecting precipitation in various parts of the globe and contributing to the increase in average global temperatures.
Recent significant climate events have been linked to this phenomenon. One example cited is the large-scale flooding that hit Rio Grande do Sul in May 2024, an event attributed to both El Niño and climate change.
In its latest update, the CPC indicated an 81% chance of El Niño reaching the 'very strong' classification during the October to December period. According to the agency, an event of this magnitude would be among the largest documented since 1950. The 'very strong' designation is applied when sea surface temperature exceeds the reference value by 2°C or more.
Additionally, the US center estimates a 97% possibility of the phenomenon remaining active until early spring of 2027 in the Northern Hemisphere (between March and June). This forecast corroborates the analysis conducted that week by Tim Stockdale, an El Niño specialist from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, who warned it would be 'a huge surprise' if the event did not set new records.
The effects of El Niño tend to change depending on the location, potentially causing notable modifications in temperature and rainfall regimes globally. Among the best-known impacts are periods of drought in Australia and wetter winters in East Africa and the southern United States.
Climate scientist Isla Simpson, affiliated with the U.S. National Atmospheric Research Center, told AFP that there is evidence that global warming is intensifying both El Niño and La Niña episodes. She stated: 'There is much evidence in our models that global warming increases El Niño variability, so we have larger El Niño events and also larger La Niña events.' La Niña represents the cooling phase of the cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
In the United States, the phenomenon generally alleviates droughts in certain areas, such as California, but it can also generate drier conditions in other parts of the country. In Europe, according to Simpson, the correlations between the phenomenon and the climate are less consistent. However, there are indications that El Niño may increase the chance of colder temperatures late in winter in the north of the continent.
The researcher emphasized that the impacts generally follow known climatic patterns but warned that other meteorological factors could modify these results. She stated: 'It is most likely that we will see the canonical El Niño teleconnections,' adding that 'in any specific event, things can deviate from this simply because we have all these random uncertainties. There are meteorological phenomena that occur over these longer-term predictable signals.'
According to the Climate Prediction Center, sea surface temperatures in the area known as Niño 3.4, located in the equatorial Pacific, are currently 1.2°C above average. The agency reported that, combined with the warming of subsurface waters and changes in wind and atmospheric pressure patterns, the ocean-atmosphere system has begun to show a rising El Niño.
Although the phenomenon typically peaks between November and February, its reflections on global temperatures usually manifest later. When combined with human-caused climate change, the previous El Niño episode helped make 2023 the second hottest year ever recorded and 2024 the hottest year in recorded history.
