Global air travel markets are facing the probability of further ticket price increases due to ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This situation may put additional pressure on aviation costs, forcing carriers to pass rising fuel expenses onto passengers.
Data from the German Federal Statistical Office has already recorded a sharp growth trend in the first half of 2026. According to these figures, the cost of international flights increased by 8.5 percent, while domestic flights rose by 9.5 percent.
The situation is exacerbated by high state taxes and fees in Germany, as well as airline decisions to suspend flights or change routes, which has led to a decrease in overall market capacity and an increase in travel costs.
The scale of price increases varied significantly depending on the destinations. The cost of economy class tickets to Central America jumped by 12.5 percent, while European destinations showed a growth of 11.5 percent. Meanwhile, flights to Asia and Australia demonstrated a more modest increase of 4.9 percent, contrasting with a 12 percent decrease in flight costs to Africa.
Package tours have also felt the impact of rising prices, albeit to a lesser extent. Outbound package tours increased by 3 percent, and domestic package offers in Germany grew by 2.8 percent. Industry analysts believe that the current geopolitical situation in vital maritime corridors could negate any savings tourists might have gained from recent reductions in German aviation taxes.
Experts warn that amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the imposition of tariffs in the Strait of Hormuz is becoming highly probable, raising concerns about the consequences for international oil prices.
Nigel Green, CEO of financial consultant deVere Group, noted that this situation followed the largest single-day jump since the pandemic began. Specifically, on Tuesday, the price of Brent crude exceeded $85 per barrel after President Trump announced a 20% levy on cargo transport through the strait, as well as the resumption of a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Green emphasized that regardless of who wins the dispute over charging fees, the costs will fall on everyone else, as about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas passes through Hormuz. He stated that imposing a 20% levy effectively taxes global energy.
Professor Andre Thomashausen, Professor of International Law at Unisa, believes that current global production capacity can easily compensate for any supply disruptions dependent on Hormuz. He posits that global prices will not be affected by increased costs due to obstacles in the strait, arguing that Iran will fail because increased production in other regions and pipeline construction will render transit through Hormuz insignificant.
However, Professor Simphiwe Madikizela, an economist from the University of South Africa (Unisa), expresses serious concern, pointing out that the introduction of tariffs will add a new dynamic that will slow down processes. In her view, this will increase transportation costs and time, negatively affecting global oil supply, including South Africa, which imports crude oil.
Madikizela added that the possibility of imposing tariffs will lead to increased costs, delays, and logistical inefficiency, slowing economic growth and business activity. Nevertheless, she noted that oil availability will be maintained due to imports from other countries on the continent, but prices will rise, as already observed with crude oil prices rising to $83–$85 per barrel, which will affect diesel and gasoline prices.
Dr. Sakhele Khadebe, a lecturer in Political Science and International Relations at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), believes that the threat of imposing tariffs represents a significant shift in geopolitical risks, turning a temporary disruption into a potentially institutionalized cost for global energy trade. He stressed that the consequences will extend far beyond the Persian Gulf, regardless of whether such a levy is imposed by the US or declared by Iran.
Khadebe specified that the Strait of Hormuz is a critically important maritime chokepoint through which about 20% of global crude oil trade and a significant portion of LNG exports pass, especially from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Any additional charges immediately affect global energy markets, as oil is traded internationally.
He concluded that the more worrying aspect is the market reaction not just to the proposed tariff, but to the uncertainty in managing one of the world's most vital sea routes. For South Africa, the consequences are substantial despite its geographical distance from the Gulf, as the country imports a significant share of its crude oil and petroleum products at prices determined by the Brent benchmark. A sustained rise in oil prices will directly lead to higher domestic fuel prices.
Waldo Krugel, an economist from Northwestern University, agreed that concerns about Hormuz are justified, but he believes the argument about the inevitability of a permanent global energy tariff is outdated. He pointed out that President Trump withdrew the proposed 20% levy just one day after announcing it. Thus, the real risk lies not in a formal tariff, but in the geopolitical risk premium created by attacks on vessels, blockades of Iranian shipments, increased waiting times, and rising marine insurance costs.
