YouGov policy director Wells pointed out that one of the biggest weaknesses of former UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was the difficulty in communicating effectively with the public and defending complex measures, such as tax increases, or presenting a unifying vision for the country.
Andy Burnham's Advantages
In contrast, Andy Burnham, who took over the leadership of the Labour Party on Friday, is praised for his ability to demonstrate empathy and build rapport with voters. Wells commented that expressing emotions and perceiving people's difficulties is positive, as it establishes a connection with the public.
Although Wells acknowledges that Burnham does not possess the charisma of figures like Tony Blair (who was Prime Minister between 1997 and 2007), he represents a notable evolution compared to other recent Labour leaders.
Public Perception and Skills
YouGov surveys show that British citizens maintain some reservation regarding trust, a suspicion that affects politicians in general. However, Burnham is still seen by the majority of Britons as competent, decisive, and fundamentally likable, a trait that Wells believes can be decisive for a leader.
For Wells, one of Burnham's great advantages will lie in his aptitude for 'projecting a plan' for the future and justifying political choices to voters, including any necessary sacrifices. He observed that when this message comes from someone people trust and like, it is more easily accepted.
Structural Limitations and Challenges
Despite these qualities, the YouGov official warned that these advantages cannot solve the country's structural problems, such as low productivity or weak economic growth. Wells admitted that improving communication helps, but it does not boost the economy, emphasizing that Burnham will need to make difficult decisions to show tangible results by the end of his term, scheduled for 2029.
Wells considers it unlikely that three years will be enough to resolve the UK's core issues, but agrees that this period may be adequate to persuade the electorate that the country is on the right track.
Comparison with Keir Starmer
YouGov data indicates that currently, a significant portion of voters consider Burnham more capable than Starmer: 23% believe he will do better, compared to only 8% who predict poorer performance. However, public opinion remains divided on the differences between the two candidates, showing low levels of expectation for change in political areas such as the economy, immigration, and the social welfare system.
Burnham's strong connection to Northern England can be interpreted as a vulnerability, as there are concerned voters who worry he will govern primarily for the benefit of that region, rather than the national interest.
Until mid-May, the approval rating of the former Mayor of Manchester (in the North) was positive, but in recent weeks it has fallen, especially among right-wing party activists. Wells explained that he was practically the only Labour politician with a favorable rating, but is now in negative territory, predicting a possible short-term improvement in Labour Party voting intentions due to Burnham's leadership.
Political Conclusion
Regarding the possibility of early elections, the analyst downplayed its importance, noting that support for this idea varies depending on whether the parties are in government or opposition. Wells concluded that Burnham will have a politically simpler path than Starmer in terms of communication and empathy, but will continue to face the same structural challenges that require difficult decision-making.
Keir Starmer is expected to formally resign as Prime Minister to King Charles III on Monday, at which point Burnham will be called upon to form a Government as the leader of the parliamentary majority party.