According to analyst Anna Bodrova of Alpari, the Uzbek sum maintains resilience against short-term exchange rate fluctuations despite some external factors.
As of July 16, 2026, the US dollar reached the level of 12,038 sums. The currency showed an appreciation of 0.48% compared to the previous week, following a period of minor changes in the foreign exchange market the week before.
Anna Bodrova reported that annual inflation in Uzbekistan accelerated to 6.4% in June, up from 5.5% in the previous month. Monthly consumer price growth was 0.6%. The main driver of this increase was higher tariffs on electricity, gas, and fuel, although some inflationary pressure was offset by a seasonal decrease in food prices.
Furthermore, a decrease in the country's international reserves to 63.7 billion US dollars was noted, primarily due to falling global gold prices. Nevertheless, the physical volume of gold reserves continues to grow, and the structure of international reserves is shifting towards long-term instruments.
Bodrova believes that higher inflation and a decrease in the value of international reserves create short-term pressure on the national currency, but these factors are largely technical in nature. She emphasized that the country's fundamental foundations remain strong as the Central Bank continues to increase its gold reserves, which supports the long-term stability of the sum. The analyst predicts that during the next week of July, the US dollar exchange rate will trade in the range of 11,900–12,100 sums against the Uzbek sum.
The joint-stock company Uzbekneftegaz held an operational meeting for the first half of 2026 under the chairmanship of Chairman of the Board of Directors Abdugani Sanginov. During this meeting, the board of directors analyzed the company's financial and production results and determined strategic goals for the remainder of the year.
According to the company's press service, the total volume of corporate debt was successfully reduced from 3.1 to 2.7 by the end of 2025. By refinancing existing obligations on more favorable terms and early repayment of high-interest loans, Uzbekneftegaz saved 219 billion soums on interest payments. Furthermore, accounts receivable decreased by 1.2 trillion soums compared to the beginning of the year, and operating expenses were optimized by 1 trillion soums relative to initial forecasts, despite a recent increase in employee salaries across the system.
Regional oil bases of the company showed positive financial turnover. If 14 distribution oil bases finished the reporting period in the first half of 2025 with a cumulative net loss of 36.5 billion soums, then in the first half of 2026, these same bases managed to sell 250,000 tons of gasoline and 114,000 tons of diesel fuel, generating a net profit of 5.4 billion soums. Management attributes this recovery to deep structural reforms, full digitalization of supply chain tracking, and improved corporate governance.
Nevertheless, serious shortfalls in production plans were addressed at the meeting. The company failed to meet target indicators for diesel and fuel oil production due to raw material import restrictions caused by the unstable global geopolitical situation. Management instructed relevant departments to take measures to eliminate these deficits before the end of the current year.
Special attention was paid to preparing infrastructure for the autumn-winter period. Given the anomalous weather phenomena and strong winds observed in Central Asia in recent years, enterprises were instructed to ensure uninterrupted production activities and create reliable, preemptive stocks of lubricants, motor fuel, and automotive gasoline. In the field of natural gas production, the board of directors ordered a technical examination of wells that were decommissioned or suspended, with the aim of reactivating technically capable facilities. In the future, the company will introduce hourly monitoring of the performance of each active well. Directors overseeing unauthorized reductions in production or processing volumes must provide official written explanations detailing immediate corrective actions.
In the second half of the year, the company's management will focus on accelerating winterization programs, implementing strict energy-saving systems, developing internal electricity sources, and activating joint investment projects with partners from China. Additionally, as part of the initiative to improve working conditions for employees, the company plans to renovate and commission 26 workers' dormitories and 17 mobile trailer homes by the end of the year.
